Important marine areas for endangered African penguins before and after the crucial stage of moulting.

The population of the Endangered African penguin Spheniscus demersus has decreased by > 65% in the last 20 years. A major driver of this decrease has been the reduced availability of their principal prey, sardine Sardinops sagax and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus. To date, conservation efforts to improve prey availability have focused on spatial management strategies to reduce resource competition with purse-seine fisheries during the breeding season. However, penguins also undergo an annual catastrophic moult when they are unable to feed for several weeks. Before moulting they must accumulate sufficient energy stores to survive this critical life-history stage. Using GPS tracking data collected between 2012 and 2019, we identify important foraging areas for pre- and post-moult African penguins at three of their major colonies in South Africa: Dassen Island and Stony Point (Western Cape) and Bird Island (Eastern Cape). The foraging ranges of pre- and post-moult adult African penguins (c. 600 km from colony) was far greater than that previously observed for breeding penguins (c. 50 km from colony) and varied considerably between sites, years and pre- and post-moult stages. Despite their more extensive range during the non-breeding season, waters within 20 and 50 km of their breeding colonies were used intensively and represent important foraging areas to pre- and post-moult penguins. Furthermore, penguins in the Western Cape travelled significantly further than those in the Eastern Cape which is likely a reflection of the poor prey availability along the west coast of South Africa. Our findings identify important marine areas for pre- and post-moult African penguins and support for the expansion of fisheries-related spatio-temporal management strategies to help conserve African penguins outside the breeding season.

Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics.

Global forage-fish landings are increasing, with potentially grave consequences for marine ecosystems. Predators of forage fish may be influenced by this harvest, but the nature of these effects is contentious. Experimental fishery manipulations offer the best solution to quantify population-level impacts, but are rare. We used Bayesian inference to examine changes in chick survival, body condition and population growth rate of endangered African penguins Spheniscus demersus in response to 8 years of alternating time-area closures around two pairs of colonies. Our results demonstrate that fishing closures improved chick survival and condition, after controlling for changing prey availability. However, this effect was inconsistent across sites and years, highlighting the difficultly of assessing management interventions in marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, modelled increases in population growth rates exceeded 1% at one colony; i.e. the threshold considered biologically meaningful by fisheries management in South Africa. Fishing closures evidently can improve the population trend of a forage-fish-dependent predator-we therefore recommend they continue in South Africa and support their application elsewhere. However, detecting demographic gains for mobile marine predators from small no-take zones requires experimental time frames and scales that will often exceed those desired by decision makers.