Childhood predictors of lung function trajectories and future COPD risk: a prospective cohort study from the first to the sixth decade of life.

BACKGROUND: Lifetime lung function is related to quality of life and longevity. Over the lifespan, individuals follow different lung function trajectories. Identification of these trajectories, their determinants, and outcomes is important, but no study has done this beyond the fourth decade. METHODS: We used six waves of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) to model lung function trajectories measured at 7, 13, 18, 45, 50, and 53 years. We analysed pre-bronchodilator FEV1 z-scores at the six timepoints using group-based trajectory modelling to identify distinct subgroups of individuals whose measurements followed a similar pattern over time. We related the trajectories identified to childhood factors and risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using logistic regression, and estimated population-attributable fractions of COPD. FINDINGS: Of the 8583 participants in the original cohort, 2438 had at least two waves of lung function data at age 7 years and 53 years and comprised the study population. We identified six trajectories: early below average, accelerated decline (97 [4%] participants); persistently low (136 [6%] participants); early low, accelerated growth, normal decline (196 [8%] participants); persistently high (293 [12%] participants); below average (772 [32%] participants); and average (944 [39%] participants). The three trajectories early below average, accelerated decline; persistently low; and below average had increased risk of COPD at age 53 years compared with the average group (early below average, accelerated decline: odds ratio 35·0, 95% CI 19·5-64·0; persistently low: 9·5, 4·5-20·6; and below average: 3·7, 1·9-6·9). Early-life predictors of the three trajectories included childhood asthma, bronchitis, pneumonia, allergic rhinitis, eczema, parental asthma, and maternal smoking. Personal smoking and active adult asthma increased the impact of maternal smoking and childhood asthma, respectively, on the early below average, accelerated decline trajectory. INTERPRETATION: We identified six potential FEV1 trajectories, two of which were novel. Three trajectories contributed 75% of COPD burden and were associated with modifiable early-life exposures whose impact was aggravated by adult factors. We postulate that reducing maternal smoking, encouraging immunisation, and avoiding personal smoking, especially in those with smoking parents or low childhood lung function, might minimise COPD risk. Clinicians and patients with asthma should be made aware of the potential long-term implications of non-optimal asthma control for lung function trajectory throughout life, and the role and benefit of optimal asthma control on improving lung function should be investigated in future intervention trials. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; European Union's Horizon 2020; The University of Melbourne; Clifford Craig Medical Research Trust of Tasmania; The Victorian, Queensland & Tasmanian Asthma Foundations; The Royal Hobart Hospital; Helen MacPherson Smith Trust; and GlaxoSmithKline.

Use of respiratory function tests to predict survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Respiratory function tests (RFTs) are commonly used as a measure of progression in ALS. This study assessed the ability of various RFTs to predict survival in ALS patients. Subjects with ALS had one or more measurements of seated and supine FVC, maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) and maximal expiratory pressure (MEP). Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis was used to determine whether patients with abnormal RFTs had shorter survival than those with normal RFTs. The sensitivity and specificity of RFTs as predictors of two-year survival were calculated from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. With KM analysis, subjects with abnormal values of seated FVC, supine FVC, MIP and MEP had significantly reduced survival compared to subjects with normal values. With ROC curves, a normal supine FVC was highly predictive for two-year survival and had superior sensitivity over seated FVC. Slower rates of decline in seated or supine FVC were strong predictors of two-year survival. Our study demonstrates that respiratory function measurements are useful to predict survival in ALS patients. We show that measurements of FVC in the supine position are worth including in the assessment of respiratory function in ALS.

Variability in the rate of prescription and cost of domiciliary oxygen therapy in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the rate of prescription of and government expenditure for domiciliary oxygen therapy (DOT) in Australia, and to identify interstate differences in rates, costs and service provision. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Government departments and health services (state and federal) that funded DOT in Australia in the 2004-05 financial year (including the Department of Veterans' Affairs [DVA] and the Department of Health and Ageing [DoHA]). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prescription rates, cost of DOT in 2004-05, and services provided in each jurisdiction. RESULTS: In 2005, 20,127 patients were using DOT, giving a national prevalence of 100 prescriptions per 100,000 population. The total cost was about $31 million. State governments, the DVA and the DoHA funded 13,899 (69%), 4084 (20%) and 2144 (11%) patients, respectively. Prescription rates varied threefold between the states, ranging from 44 (Northern Territory) to 133 (Tasmania) per 100,000 population. Cost per patient per year varied fourfold between the DVA and the DoHA. All jurisdictions funded oxygen according to the clinical criteria of the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand, but considerable variability in service provision was identified. CONCLUSION: DOT prescription rates and costs vary considerably between jurisdictions. An urgently needed national DOT register would enable the current variability to be understood and allow service planning and benchmarking of clinical outcomes.

Acetazolamide reduces exercise capacity and increases leg fatigue under hypoxic conditions.

Acetazolamide (Acz) is used at altitude to prevent acute mountain sickness, but its effect on exercise capacity under hypoxic conditions is uncertain. Nine healthy men completed this double-blind, randomized, crossover study. All subjects underwent incremental exercise to exhaustion with an inspired O(2) fraction of 0.13, hypoxic ventilatory responses, and hypercapnic ventilatory responses after Acz (500 mg twice daily for 5 doses) and placebo. Maximum power of 203 +/- 38 (SD) W on Acz was less than the placebo value of 225 +/- 40 W (P < 0.01). At peak exercise, arterialized capillary pH was lower and Po(2) higher on Acz (P < 0.01). Ventilation was 118.6 +/- 20.0 l/min at the maximal power on Acz and 102.4 +/- 20.7 l/min at the same power on placebo (P < 0.02), and Borg score for leg fatigue was increased on Acz (P < 0.02), with no difference in Borg score for dyspnea. Hypercapnic ventilatory response on Acz was greater (P < 0.02), whereas hypoxic ventilatory response was unchanged. During hypoxic exercise, Acz reduced exercise capacity associated with increased perception of leg fatigue. Despite increased ventilation, dyspnea was not increased.