An assessment of marine, estuarine, and riverine habitat vulnerability to climate change in the Northeast U.S.

Climate change is impacting the function and distribution of habitats used by marine, coastal, and diadromous species. These impacts often exacerbate the anthropogenic stressors that habitats face, particularly in the coastal environment. We conducted a climate vulnerability assessment of 52 marine, estuarine, and riverine habitats in the Northeast U.S. to develop an ecosystem-scale understanding of the impact of climate change on these habitats. The trait-based assessment considers the overall vulnerability of a habitat to climate change to be a function of two main components, sensitivity and exposure, and relies on a process of expert elicitation. The climate vulnerability ranks ranged from low to very high, with living habitats identified as the most vulnerable. Over half of the habitats examined in this study are expected to be impacted negatively by climate change, while four habitats are expected to have positive effects. Coastal habitats were also identified as highly vulnerable, in part due to the influence of non-climate anthropogenic stressors. The results of this assessment provide regional managers and scientists with a tool to inform habitat conservation, restoration, and research priorities, fisheries and protected species management, and coastal and ocean planning.

A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.

Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.

Are lower-latitude plants better defended? Palatability of freshwater macrophytes.

Increased herbivory at lower latitudes is hypothesized to select for more effective plant defenses. Feeding assays with seaweeds and salt marsh plants support this hypothesis, with low-latitude plants experiencing greater damage in the field and being less palatable than higher-latitude plants. We tested this hypothesis for freshwater macrophytes because they offered an independent plant lineage and habitat type for testing this general hypothesis and because the patchiness of consumer occupancy across isolated water bodies might produce local variance in herbivory that would override geographic variance and produce different results for this habitat type. When we fed eight congeneric pairs of live plants from four sites in Indiana vs. four sites in South Florida (-215 and 0 frost days/yr respectively) to three species of crayfishes and one species of snail, three of the four herbivores significantly preferred high-latitude to low-latitude plants. For two crayfishes that differed in feeding on live plants (one favoring high-latitude plants and one not), we retested feeding using foods composed of freeze-dried and finely ground plants, thus removing structural characteristics while retaining most chemical/nutritional traits. In this assay, both herbivores strongly preferred high-latitude plants, suggesting that lower-latitude plants had been selected for more deterrent chemical traits. When we collected 22 pairs of congeneric plants from 9 sites throughout Indiana vs. 13 sites in Central Florida (-215 and -95 frost days/yr respectively) and tested these in feeding assays with three crayfishes using dried, ground, and reconstituted plant material, we found a significant effect of latitude for only one of three species of herbivore. Overall, our results suggest a preference for high-latitude plants, but the strength of this relationship varied considerably across small scales of latitude that differed considerably in numbers of frost-free days. The difference in results suggests that large changes in frost frequency over small spatial scales may affect selection for plant defenses, that local variance in herbivory overrode differential selection at geographic scales, or that these possibilities interact when durations of cold weather periodically exclude herbivores from shallower habitats, producing heterogeneous selection for defenses at small spatial scales.

Herbivore preference for native vs. exotic plants: generalist herbivores from multiple continents prefer exotic plants that are evolutionarily naïve.

Enemy release and biotic resistance are competing, but not mutually exclusive, hypotheses addressing the success or failure of non-native plants entering a new region. Enemy release predicts that exotic plants become invasive by escaping their co-adapted herbivores and by being unrecognized or unpalatable to native herbivores that have not been selected to consume them. In contrast, biotic resistance predicts that native generalist herbivores will suppress exotic plants that will not have been selected to deter these herbivores. We tested these hypotheses using five generalist herbivores from North or South America and nine confamilial pairs of native and exotic aquatic plants. Four of five herbivores showed 2.4-17.3 fold preferences for exotic over native plants. Three species of South American apple snails (Pomacea sp.) preferred North American over South American macrophytes, while a North American crayfish Procambarus spiculifer preferred South American, Asian, and Australian macrophytes over North American relatives. Apple snails have their center of diversity in South America, but a single species (Pomacea paludosa) occurs in North America. This species, with a South American lineage but a North American distribution, did not differentiate between South American and North American plants. Its preferences correlated with preferences of its South American relatives rather than with preferences of the North American crayfish, consistent with evolutionary inertia due to its South American lineage. Tests of plant traits indicated that the crayfish responded primarily to plant structure, the apple snails primarily to plant chemistry, and that plant protein concentration played no detectable role. Generalist herbivores preferred non-native plants, suggesting that intact guilds of native, generalist herbivores may provide biotic resistance to plant invasions. Past invasions may have been facilitated by removal of native herbivores, introduction of non-native herbivores (which commonly prefer native plants), or both.

Induced chemical defenses in a freshwater macrophyte suppress herbivore fitness and the growth of associated microbes.

The freshwater macrophyte Cabomba caroliniana induces a chemical defense when attacked by either the crayfish Procambrus clarkii or the snail Pomacea canaliculata. Induction by either consumer lowers the palatability of the plant to both consumers. When offered food ad libitum, snails feeding on non-induced C. caroliniana grew 2.6-2.7 times more than those feeding on induced C. caroliniana. Because snails fed less on induced plants, this could be a behavioral effect (reduced feeding), a physiological effect of the induced metabolites on the consumer, or both. To assess these possibilities, we made artificial diets with lipid extracts of induced versus non-induced C. caroliniana and restricted control snails to consuming only as much as treatment snails consumed. Growth measured as shell diameter was significantly lower on the diet containing extract from induced, as opposed to non-induced, plants; change in snail mass was more variable and showed a similar, but non-significant, trend. Thus, snails may reduce feeding on induced plants to avoid suppression of fitness. The induced defenses also suppressed growth of co-occurring microbes that might attack the plant through herbivore-generated feeding scars. When two bacteria and three fungi isolated from C. caroliniana surfaces were cultured with the lipid extract from induced and non-induced C. caroliniana, both extracts inhibited the microbes, but the induced extract was more potent against three of the five potential pathogens. Thus, induced plant defenses can act against both direct consumers and microbes that might invade the plant indirectly through herbivore-generated wounds.