An agent-based framework to study forced migration: A case study of Ukraine.

The ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine has forced over eight million people to migrate out of Ukraine. Understanding the dynamics of forced migration is essential for policy-making and for delivering humanitarian assistance. Existing work is hindered by a reliance on observational data which is only available well after the fact. In this work, we study the efficacy of a data-driven agent-based framework motivated by social and behavioral theory in predicting outflow of migrants as a result of conflict events during the initial phase of the Ukraine war. We discuss policy use cases for the proposed framework by demonstrating how it can leverage refugee demographic details to answer pressing policy questions. We also show how to incorporate conflict forecast scenarios to predict future conflict-induced migration flows. Detailed future migration estimates across various conflict scenarios can both help to reduce policymaker uncertainty and improve allocation and staging of limited humanitarian resources in crisis settings.

A 10-year prospectus for mathematical epidemiology.

There is little significant work at the intersection of mathematical and computational epidemiology and detailed psychological processes, representations, and mechanisms. This is true despite general agreement in the scientific community and the general public that human behavior in its seemingly infinite variation and heterogeneity, susceptibility to bias, context, and habit is an integral if not fundamental component of what drives the dynamics of infectious disease. The COVID-19 pandemic serves as a close and poignant reminder. We offer a 10-year prospectus of kinds that centers around an unprecedented scientific approach: the integration of detailed psychological models into rigorous mathematical and computational epidemiological frameworks in a way that pushes the boundaries of both psychological science and population models of behavior.

Lipschitz continuity under toric equivalence for asynchronous Boolean networks.

Mathematical models rooted in network representations are becoming increasingly more common for capturing a broad range of phenomena. Boolean networks (BNs) represent a mathematical abstraction suited for establishing general theory applicable to such systems. A key thread in BN research is developing theory that connects the structure of the network and the local rules to phase space properties or so-called structure-to-function theory. While most theory for BNs has been developed for the synchronous case, the focus of this work is on asynchronously updated BNs (ABNs) which are natural to consider from the point of view of applications to real systems where perfect synchrony is uncommon. A central question in this regard is sensitivity of dynamics of ABNs with respect to perturbations to the asynchronous update scheme. Macauley & Mortveit [Nonlinearity 22, 421-436 (2009)] showed that the periodic orbits are structurally invariant under toric equivalence of the update sequences. In this paper and under the same equivalence of the update scheme, the authors (i) extend that result to the entire phase space, (ii) establish a Lipschitz continuity result for sequences of maximal transient paths, and (iii) establish that within a toric equivalence class the maximal transient length may at most take on two distinct values. In addition, the proofs offer insight into the general asynchronous phase space of Boolean networks.

Ensembles of realistic power distribution networks.

The power grid is going through significant changes with the introduction of renewable energy sources and the incorporation of smart grid technologies. These rapid advancements necessitate new models and analyses to keep up with the various emergent phenomena they induce. A major prerequisite of such work is the acquisition of well-constructed and accurate network datasets for the power grid infrastructure. In this paper, we propose a robust, scalable framework to synthesize power distribution networks that resemble their physical counterparts for a given region. We use openly available information about interdependent road and building infrastructures to construct the networks. In contrast to prior work based on network statistics, we incorporate engineering and economic constraints to create the networks. Additionally, we provide a framework to create ensembles of power distribution networks to generate multiple possible instances of the network for a given region. The comprehensive dataset consists of nodes with attributes, such as geocoordinates; type of node (residence, transformer, or substation); and edges with attributes, such as geometry, type of line (feeder lines, primary or secondary), and line parameters. For validation, we provide detailed comparisons of the generated networks with actual distribution networks. The generated datasets represent realistic test systems (as compared with standard test cases published by Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)) that can be used by network scientists to analyze complex events in power grids and to perform detailed sensitivity and statistical analyses over ensembles of networks.

Attractor Stability in Finite Asynchronous Biological System Models.

We present mathematical techniques for exhaustive studies of long-term dynamics of asynchronous biological system models. Specifically, we extend the notion of [Formula: see text]-equivalence developed for graph dynamical systems to support systematic analysis of all possible attractor configurations that can be generated when varying the asynchronous update order (Macauley and Mortveit in Nonlinearity 22(2):421, 2009). We extend earlier work by Veliz-Cuba and Stigler (J Comput Biol 18(6):783-794, 2011), Goles et al. (Bull Math Biol 75(6):939-966, 2013), and others by comparing long-term dynamics up to topological conjugation: rather than comparing the exact states and their transitions on attractors, we only compare the attractor structures. In general, obtaining this information is computationally intractable. Here, we adapt and apply combinatorial theory for dynamical systems from Macauley and Mortveit (Proc Am Math Soc 136(12):4157-4165, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9939-09-09884-0 ; 2009; Electron J Comb 18:197, 2011a; Discret Contin Dyn Syst 4(6):1533-1541, 2011b. https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdss.2011.4.1533 ; Theor Comput Sci 504:26-37, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcs.2012.09.015 ; in: Isokawa T, Imai K, Matsui N, Peper F, Umeo H (eds) Cellular automata and discrete complex systems, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-18812-6_6 ) to develop computational methods that greatly reduce this computational cost. We give a detailed algorithm and apply it to (i) the lac operon model for Escherichia coli proposed by Veliz-Cuba and Stigler (2011), and (ii) the regulatory network involved in the control of the cell cycle and cell differentiation in the Caenorhabditis elegans vulva precursor cells proposed by Weinstein et al. (BMC Bioinform 16(1):1, 2015). In both cases, we uncover all possible limit cycle structures for these networks under sequential updates. Specifically, for the lac operon model, rather than examining all [Formula: see text] sequential update orders, we demonstrate that it is sufficient to consider 344 representative update orders, and, more notably, that these 344 representatives give rise to 4 distinct attractor structures. A similar analysis performed for the C. elegans model demonstrates that it has precisely 125 distinct attractor structures. We conclude with observations on the variety and distribution of the models' attractor structures and use the results to discuss their robustness.

GDSCalc: A Web-Based Application for Evaluating Discrete Graph Dynamical Systems.

Discrete dynamical systems are used to model various realistic systems in network science, from social unrest in human populations to regulation in biological networks. A common approach is to model the agents of a system as vertices of a graph, and the pairwise interactions between agents as edges. Agents are in one of a finite set of states at each discrete time step and are assigned functions that describe how their states change based on neighborhood relations. Full characterization of state transitions of one system can give insights into fundamental behaviors of other dynamical systems. In this paper, we describe a discrete graph dynamical systems (GDSs) application called GDSCalc for computing and characterizing system dynamics. It is an open access system that is used through a web interface. We provide an overview of GDS theory. This theory is the basis of the web application; i.e., an understanding of GDS provides an understanding of the software features, while abstracting away implementation details. We present a set of illustrative examples to demonstrate its use in education and research. Finally, we compare GDSCalc with other discrete dynamical system software tools. Our perspective is that no single software tool will perform all computations that may be required by all users; tools typically have particular features that are more suitable for some tasks. We situate GDSCalc within this space of software tools.