Decreasing primary care use and blood pressure monitoring during COVID-19.

Among a group of primary care accountable care organizations, patients with hypertension were 50% less likely to have a blood pressure recorded in April compared with February.

Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020.

Importance: Efforts to track the severity and public health impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States have been hampered by state-level differences in diagnostic test availability, differing strategies for prioritization of individuals for testing, and delays between testing and reporting. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths due to all causes or attributed to nonspecific outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza, can provide a more complete picture of the burden of COVID-19. Objective: To estimate the burden of all deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States from March to May 2020. Design, Setting, and Population: This observational study evaluated the numbers of US deaths from any cause and deaths from pneumonia, influenza, and/or COVID-19 from March 1 through May 30, 2020, using public data of the entire US population from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years. All data analyzed were accessed on June 12, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Increases in weekly deaths due to any cause or deaths due to pneumonia/influenza/COVID-19 above a baseline, which was adjusted for time of year, influenza activity, and reporting delays. These estimates were compared with reported deaths attributed to COVID-19 and with testing data. Results: There were approximately 781 000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all-cause deaths was 28% higher than the official tally of COVID-19-reported deaths during that period. In several states, these deaths occurred before increases in the availability of COVID-19 diagnostic tests and were not counted in official COVID-19 death records. There was substantial variability between states in the difference between official COVID-19 deaths and the estimated burden of excess deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: Excess deaths provide an estimate of the full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus. The mortality burden and the completeness of the tallies vary markedly between states.

Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to track the severity and public health impact of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, in the US have been hampered by testing issues, reporting lags, and inconsistency between states. Evaluating unexplained increases in deaths attributed to broad outcomes, such as pneumonia and influenza (P&I) or all causes, can provide a more complete and consistent picture of the burden caused by COVID-19. METHODS: We evaluated increases in the occurrence of deaths due to P&I above a seasonal baseline (adjusted for influenza activity) or due to any cause across the United States in February and March 2020. These estimates are compared with reported deaths due to COVID-19 and with testing data. RESULTS: There were notable increases in the rate of death due to P&I in February and March 2020. In a number of states, these deaths pre-dated increases in COVID-19 testing rates and were not counted in official records as related to COVID-19. There was substantial variability between states in the discrepancy between reported rates of death due to COVID-19 and the estimated burden of excess deaths due to P&I. The increase in all-cause deaths in New York and New Jersey is 1.5-3 times higher than the official tally of COVID-19 confirmed deaths or the estimated excess death due to P&I. CONCLUSIONS: Excess P&I deaths provide a conservative estimate of COVID-19 burden and indicate that COVID-19-related deaths are missed in locations with inadequate testing or intense pandemic activity.

Medicare Annual Wellness Visit association with healthcare quality and costs.

OBJECTIVES: Although use of the Medicare Annual Wellness Visit (AWV) is increasing nationally, it remains unclear whether it can help contain healthcare costs and improve quality. In the context of 2 primary care physician-led accountable care organizations (ACOs), we tested the hypothesis that AWVs can improve healthcare costs and clinical quality. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study using propensity score matching and quasi-experimental difference-in-differences regression models comparing the differential changes in cost, emergency department (ED) visits, and hospitalizations for those who received an AWV versus those who did not from before until after the AWV. Logistic regressions were used for quality measures. METHODS: Between 2014 and 2016, we examined the association of an AWV with healthcare costs, ED visits, hospitalizations, and clinical quality measures. The sample included Medicare beneficiaries attributed to providers across 44 primary care clinics participating in 2 ACOs. RESULTS: Among 8917 Medicare beneficiaries, an AWV was associated with significantly reduced spending on hospital acute care and outpatient services. Patients who received an AWV in the index month experienced a 5.7% reduction in adjusted total healthcare costs over the ensuing 11 months, with the greatest effect seen for patients in the highest hierarchical condition category risk quartile. AWVs were not associated with ED visits or hospitalizations. Beneficiaries who had an AWV were also more likely to receive recommended preventive clinical services. CONCLUSIONS: In a setting that prioritizes care coordination and utilization management, AWVs have the potential to improve healthcare quality and reduce cost.

The opportunities and challenges of the MSSP ACO program: a report from the field.

In this article, we seek to provide the first detailed description of a Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) accountable care organization (ACO)'s actions and results to help increase understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing ACOs, and in particular, those comprised of a network of independent practices. Whether ACOs have been successful in delivering value has been the subject of much debate and speculation. What has been missing from this discussion is a look at the program from the frontlines and those who are launching and running MSSP ACOs. We hope to fill that gap.

Meaningful use stage 2 e-prescribing threshold and adverse drug events in the Medicare Part D population with diabetes.

Evidence supports the potential for e-prescribing to reduce the incidence of adverse drug events (ADEs) in hospital-based studies, but studies in the ambulatory setting have not used occurrence of ADE as their outcome. Using the "prescription origin code" in 2011 Medicare Part D prescription drug events files, the authors investigate whether physicians who meet the meaningful use stage 2 threshold for e-prescribing (≥50% of prescriptions e-prescribed) have lower rates of ADEs among their diabetic patients. Risk of any patient with diabetes in the provider's panel having an ADE from anti-diabetic medications was modeled adjusted for prescriber and patient panel characteristics. Physician e-prescribing to Medicare beneficiaries was associated with reduced risk of ADEs among their diabetes patients (Odds Ratio: 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.96), as were several prescriber and panel characteristics. However, these physicians treated fewer patients from disadvantaged populations.