ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: To analyze if antithrombin III (AT-III) and d -dimer levels at admission and at 24 hours can predict acute pancreatitis (AP) progression to moderately severe AP (MSAP) to severe AP (SAP) and to determine their predictive value on the development of necrosis, infected necrosis, organ failure, and mortality. METHODS: Prospective observational study conducted in patients with mild AP in 2 tertiary hospitals (2015-2017). RESULTS: Three hundred forty-six patients with mild AP were included. Forty-four patients (12.7%) evolved to MSAP/SAP. Necrosis was detected in 36 patients (10.4%); in 10 (2.9%), infection was confirmed. Organ failure was recorded in 9 patients (2.6%), all of whom died. Those who progressed to MSAP/SAP showed lower AT-III levels; d -dimer and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels increased. The best individual marker for MSAP/SAP at 24 hours is CRP (area under the curve [AUC], 0.839). Antithrombin III (AUC, 0.641), d -dimer (AUC, 0.783), and creatinine added no benefit compared with CRP alone. Similar results were observed for patients who progressed to necrosis, infected necrosis, and organ failure/death. CONCLUSION: Low AT-III and high d -dimer plasma levels at 24 hours after admission were significantly associated with MSAP/SAP, although their predictive ability was low. C-reactive protein was the best marker tested. CLINICAL STUDY IDENTIFIER: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02373293.
