Incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and the relationship between age and smoking in a Japanese population.

BACKGROUND: Accurately evaluating a risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requires a large-scale longitudinal study using a standard criterion for diagnosing COPD. There have been only a few such follow-up studies in Europe and no reports in Asia. We estimated the incidence rate and incidence rate ratio (IRR) of age and smoking for COPD in a Japanese population using the diagnosis criterion of the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines. METHODS: Subjects were 17,106 participants aged 25-74 years during health check-ups including spirometry from April 1997 through March 2005 in Japan. Total follow-up of participants were 47,652 person-years in males and 25,224 person-years in females. The IRR of age and smoking was estimated using Cox proportional hazard models with both variables. RESULTS: We identified 466 incidence cases of COPD. The incidence rate per 100 person-years was 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.89) in males and 0.31 (0.24-0.38) in females, and significantly increased with age in both sexes. The incidence rate for current smokers was significantly higher than that for male non-smokers but not significantly for females. Among males, the IRR for current smokers with Brinkman Index < 400, 400-799, and 800+ was 1.2 (0.8-1.9), 2.7 (1.9-3.8), and 4.6 (3.3-6.5), respectively. CONCLUSION: These results indicated that the COPD risk gradually increased with aging, and that there was a dose-response relationship between smoking and COPD risk.

Effects of smoking and age on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines recommended a forced expiratory volume at one second per forced vital capacity as a standard diagnostic criterion of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A few reports on the risk factors of COPD have used the standard diagnostic criteria. In our study, the effects of age and smoking on COPD in Japan under the standard diagnosis criteria were evaluated. METHODS: Subjects were 11,460 participants aged 25-74 years during health check-ups including spirometry at the Toyota Community Medical Center in Japan. Logistic regression analyses with or without COPD as a dependent variable and age as an independent variable were conducted among non-smokers. The ratio of the observed number of COPD cases in former and current smokers to the number expected for non-smokers with the same distribution of age (O/E) was calculated. RESULTS: The proportion of males incurring COPD significantly increased with age, and the O/E for former and current male smokers was significantly higher than one, i.e., O/E (95% confidence interval) for current smokers with a Brinkman Index of <400, 400-799, and 800+ were 3.10 (2.00-4.81), 2.78 (2.05-3.73), and 4.76 (3.65-6.19), respectively. Among females, the O/E for current smokers with a Brinkman Index of <400, and 400-799 were significantly higher than one. CONCLUSION: Age and smoking were shown to constitute strong risk factors for COPD under the standard diagnostic criteria.