Ethiopian Crop Type 2020 (EthCT2020) dataset: Crop type data for environmental and agricultural remote sensing applications in complex Ethiopian smallholder wheat-based farming systems (Meher season 2020/21).

Crop type observation is crucial for various environmental and agricultural remote sensing applications including land use and land cover mapping, crop growth monitoring, crop modelling, yield forecasting, disease surveillance, and climate modelling. Quality-controlled georeferenced crop type information is essential for calibrating and validating machine learning algorithms. However, publicly available field data is scarce, particularly in the highly dynamic smallholder farming systems of sub-Saharan Africa. For the 2020/21 main cropping season (Meher), the Ethiopian Crop Type 2020 (EthCT2020) dataset compiled from multiple sources provides 2,793 harmonized, quality-controlled, and georeferenced in-situ samples on annual crop types (7 crop groups; 22 crop classes) at smallholder field level across the complex and highly fragmented agricultural landscape of Ethiopia. The focus was on rainfed, wheat-based farming systems. A nationwide ground data collection campaign (GDCC; Source 1) was designed using a stratification approach based on wheat crop calendar information, and 1,263 in-situ data samples were collected in selected sampling regions. This in-situ data pool was enriched with 1,530 wheat samples extracted from a) the Wheat Rust Toolbox (WRTB; Source 2; 734 samples), a database for wheat disease surveillance data [1] and b) an inhouse farm household survey database (FHSD; Source 3; 796 samples). Obtained field data was labelled according to the Joint Experiment for Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) guidelines for cropland and crop type definition and field data collection [2] and the FAO Indicative Crop Classification [3]. The EthCT2020 dataset underwent extensive processing including data harmonization, mixed pixel assessment through visual interpretation using 5 m Planet satellite image composites, and quality-control using Sentinel-2 NDVI homogeneity analysis. The EthCT2020 dataset is unique in terms of crop diversity, pixel purity, and spatial accuracy while targeting a countrywide distribution. It is representative of Ethiopia's complex and highly fragmented agricultural landscape and can be useful for developing new machine learning algorithms for land use land cover mapping, crop type mapping, agricultural monitoring, and yield forecasting in smallholder cropping systems. The dataset can also serve as a baseline input parameter for crop models, climate models, and crop disease and pest forecasting systems.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food prices: Evidence from storable and perishable commodities in India.

The supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 outbreak have led to changes in food prices globally. The impact of COVID-19 on the price of essential and perishable food items in developing and emerging economies has been lacking. Using a recent phone survey by the World Bank, this study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prices of the three essential food items in India. The results indicate that price of basic food items such as atta (wheat flour) and rice increased significantly during the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. In contrast, during the same period, the price of onions declined significantly. The findings may suggest panic-buying, hoarding, and storability of food items. The results further reveal that remittance income and cash transfers from the government negatively affected commodity prices. Thus, this study's findings suggest that families may have shifted the demand away from essential foods during the pandemic.

Projecting wheat demand in China and India for 2030 and 2050: Implications for food security.

Introduction: The combined populations of China and India were 2.78 billion in 2020, representing 36% of the world population (7.75 billion). Wheat is the second most important staple grain in both China and India. In 2019, the aggregate wheat consumption in China was 96.4 million ton and in India it was 82.5 million ton, together it was more than 35% of the world's wheat that year. In China, in 2050, the projected population will be 1294-1515 million, and in India, it is projected to be 14.89-1793 million, under the low and high-fertility rate assumptions. A question arises as to, what will be aggregate demand for wheat in China and India in 2030 and 2050? Methods: Applying the Vector Error Correction model estimation process in the time series econometric estimation setting, this study projected the per capita and annual aggregate wheat consumptions of China and India during 2019-2050. In the process, this study relies on agricultural data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States (FAO) database (FAOSTAT), as well as the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) data catalog. The presence of unit root in the data series are tested by applying the augmented Dickey-Fuller test; Philips-Perron unit root test; Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, and Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test allowing for a single break in intercept and/or trend. The test statistics suggest that a natural log transformation and with the first difference of the variables provides stationarity of the data series for both China and India. The Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test, however, suggested that there is a structural break in urban population share and GDP per capita. To tackle the issue, we have included a year dummy and two multiplicative dummies in our model. Furthermore, the Johansen cointegration test suggests that at least one variable in both data series were cointegrated. These tests enable us to apply Vector Error Correction (VEC) model estimation procedure. In estimation the model, the appropriate number of lags of the variables is confirmed by applying the "varsoc" command in Stata 17 software interface. The estimated yearly per capita wheat consumption in 2030 and 2050 from the VEC model, are multiplied by the projected population in 2030 and 2050 to calculate the projected aggregate wheat demand in China and India in 2030 and 2050. After projecting the yearly per capita wheat consumption (KG), we multiply with the projected population to get the expected consumption demand. Results: This study found that the yearly per capita wheat consumption of China will increase from 65.8 kg in 2019 to 76 kg in 2030, and 95 kg in 2050. In India, the yearly per capita wheat consumption will increase to 74 kg in 2030 and 94 kg in 2050 from 60.4 kg in 2019. Considering the projected population growth rates under low-fertility assumptions, aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by more than 13% in 2030 and by 28% in 2050. Under the high-fertility rate assumption, however the aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by 18% in 2030 and nearly 50% in 2050. In the case of India, under both low and high-fertility rate assumptions, aggregate wheat demand in India will increase by 32-38% in 2030 and by 70-104% in 2050 compared to 2019 level of consumption. Discussions: Our results underline the importance of wheat in both countries, which are the world's top wheat producers and consumers, and suggest the importance of research and development investments to maintain sufficient national wheat grain production levels to meet China and India's domestic demand. This is critical both to ensure the food security of this large segment of the world populace, which also includes 23% of the total population of the world who live on less than US $1.90/day, as well as to avoid potential grain market destabilization and price hikes that arise in the event of large import demands.

Progress and Prospects of Developing Climate Resilient Wheat in South Asia Using Modern Pre-Breeding Methods.

Developing climate-resilient wheat is a priority for South Asia since the effect of climate change will be pronounced on the major crops that are staple to the region. South Asia must produce >400 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat by 2050 to meet the demand. However, the current average yield <3 t/ha is not sufficient to meet the requirement. In this review, we are addressing how pre-breeding methods in wheat can address the gap in grain yield as well as reduce the bottleneck of genetic diversity. Physiological pre-breeding which incorporates screening of diverse germplasm from gene banks for physiological and agronomic traits, the strategic crossing of complementary traits, high throughput phenotyping, molecular markers-based generation advancement, genomic prediction, and validation of high-value heat and drought tolerant lines to South Asia can help to alleviate the drastic effect of climate change on wheat production. There are several gene banks, if utilized well, can play a major role in breeding for climate-resilient wheat. CIMMYT's wheat physiological pre-breeding has delivered several hundred lines via the Stress Adapted Trait Yield Nursery (SATYN) to the NARS in many South Asian countries; India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Iran. Some of these improved germplasms have resulted in varieties for farmer's field. We conclude the review by pointing out the importance of collaborative interdisciplinary translational research to alleviate the effects of climate change on wheat production in South Asia.

COVID-19 induced economic loss and ensuring food security for vulnerable groups: Policy implications from Bangladesh.

At present nearly half of the world's population is under some form of government restriction to curb the spread of COVID-19, an extremely contagious disease. In Bangladesh, in the wake of five deaths and 48 infections from COVID-19, between March 24 and May 30, 2020, the government imposed a nationwide lockdown. While this lockdown restricted the spread of COVID-19, in the absence of effective support, it can generate severe food and nutrition insecurity for daily wage-based workers. Of the 61 million employed labor force in Bangladesh, nearly 35% of them are paid on a daily basis. This study examines the food security and welfare impacts of the COVID-19 induced lockdown on daily wage workers both in the farm and nonfarm sectors in Bangladesh. Using information from more than 50,000 respondents complied with the 2016-17 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) in Bangladesh, this study estimates daily wage rates as Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 272.2 in the farm sector and BDT 361.5 in the nonfarm sector. Using the estimated daily wage earnings, this study estimates that a one-day complete lockdown generates a US$64.2 million equivalent economic loss only considering the wage loss of the daily wage workers. After estimating the daily per capita food expenditure separately for farm and nonfarm households, this study estimates a minimum compensation package for the daily wage-based farm and nonfarm households around the US $ 1 per day per household to ensure minimum food security for the daily wage-based worker households.

Do market shocks generate gender-differentiated impacts? Policy implications from a quasi-natural experiment in Bangladesh.

Using information collected from two rounds of household income and expenditure surveys (HIES 2005 and 2010) in Bangladesh, this study examines the gender-differentiated impacts of the commodity price hikes in 2008 on food and non-food consumption behavior based on the sex of the household head. Applying the difference-in-difference estimation method in a quasi-natural experiment setting, this study demonstrates that, in general, commodity price hikes more adversely affect female-headed households. In 2010, they reduced expenditures on food and non-food items, and particularly cereal, non-cereal, and education expenditures, more than male-headed households did. This study also shows that the impacts of commodity price hikes were lower on the female-headed households headed by educated females as well as those who owned larger pieces of land and received remittances. These subsets were not affected by the commodity price shocks as examined in 2010. The findings strongly suggest that the provision of both human and physical capital is instrumental in developing countries to empower female-headed households to enhance their buffering capacity to withstand economic shocks.

Economic benefits of blast-resistant biofortified wheat in Bangladesh: The case of BARI Gom 33.

The first occurrence of wheat blast in 2016 threatened Bangladesh's already precarious food security situation. The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), together with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) developed and released the wheat variety BARI Gom 33 that is resistant to wheat blast and other common diseases. The new variety provides a 5-8% yield gain over the available popular varieties, as well as being zinc enriched. This study examines the potential economic benefits of BARI Gom 33 in Bangladesh. First, applying a climate analogue model, this study identified that more than 55% of the total wheat-growing area in Bangladesh (across 45 districts) is vulnerable to wheat blast. Second, applying an ex-ante impact assessment framework, this study shows that with an assumed cumulative adoption starting from 2019-20 and increasing to 30% by 2027-28, the potential economic benefits of the newly developed wheat variety far exceeds its dissemination cost by 2029-30. Even if dissemination of the new wheat variety is limited to only the ten currently blast-affected districts, the yearly average net benefits could amount to USD 0.23-1.6 million. Based on the findings, international funder agencies are urged to support the national system in scaling out the new wheat variety and wheat research in general to ensure overall food security in Bangladesh and South Asia.

Understanding clients, providers and the institutional dimensions of irrigation services in developing countries: A study of water markets in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated nations that nonetheless has largely achieved staple self-sufficiency. This development has been enabled in part by the rapid proliferation of small-scale irrigation pumps that enabled double rice cropping, as well as by a competitive market system in which farmers purchase water at affordable fee-for-service prices from private irrigation pump owners. Excess groundwater abstraction in areas of high shallow tube-well density and increased fuel costs for pumping have however called into question the sustainability of Bangladesh's groundwater irrigation economy. Cost-saving agronomic methods are called for, alongside aligned policies, markets, and farmers' incentives. The study assesses different institutions and water-pricing methods for irrigation services that have emerged in Bangladesh, each of which varies in their incentive structure for water conservation, and the level of economic risk involved for farmers and service providers. Using primary data collected from 139 irrigation service providers and 556 client-farmers, we empirically examine the structure of irrigation service types and associated market and institutional dimensions. Our findings demonstrate that competition among pump owners, social capital and personal relationships, and economic and agronomic risk perceptions of both pump owners and farmers significantly influence the structure of irrigation services and water pricing methods. Greater competition among pump owners increases the likelihood of pay-per-hour services and reduces the likelihood of crop harvest sharing arrangements. Based on these findings, we explore policy implications for enhancing irrigation services and irrigation sustainability in Bangladesh.

Averting wheat blast by implementing a 'wheat holiday': In search of alternative crops in West Bengal, India.

The emergence of wheat-blast in Bangladesh in the 2015-16 wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crop threatens the food security of South Asia. A potential spread of the disease from Bangladesh to India could have devastating impacts on India's overall food security as wheat is its second most important staple food crop. West Bengal state in eastern India shares a 2,217 km-long border with Bangladesh and has a similar agro-ecology, enhancing the prospects of the disease entering India via West Bengal. The present study explores the possibility of a 'wheat holiday' policy in the nine border districts of West Bengal. Under the policy, farmers in these districts would stop wheat cultivation for at least two years. The present scoping study assesses the potential economic feasibility of alternative crops to wheat. Of the ten crops considered, maize, gram (chickpea), urad (black gram), rapeseed and mustard, and potatoes are found to be potentially feasible alternative crops. Any crop substitution would need support to ease the transition including addressing the challenges related to the management of alternative crops, ensuring adequate crop combinations and value chain development. Still, as wheat is a major staple, there is some urgency to support further research on disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-resistant wheat varieties across South Asia.

Small businesses, potentially large impacts: The role of fertilizer traders as agricultural extension agents in Bangladesh.

PURPOSE: Constraints associated with public agricultural extension services imply that farmers increasingly rely on input providers for agricultural innovations and knowledge. Yet such providers are typically commercial profit-making agents and may have an incentive to suggest relatively costly inputs and/or high rates. The purpose of this paper is to look into the case of Bangladesh and the role of fertilizer traders in terms of farmers' decisions on which fertilizer to apply and at what rate. Using primary data, the authors examine farmers' chemical fertilizer use and the associated rice production efficiency, based on different information sources (fertilizer traders, government extension agents or own/peer experience). DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Using primary data, the present study estimates an ordered probit model and production functions separately based on whether or not a farmer relied on information from fertilizer traders or own experience and government extension agents, and examines the efficiency score of each type of farmer. FINDINGS: The findings demonstrate that the resource-poor farmers rely more on traders' suggestions for fertilizer application than public extension - but the actual fertilizer information source has no significant effect on the production efficiency of the rice farmers. This study, therefore, does not find exploitative behavior of fertilizer traders. Thus, this study concludes that small rural traders in Bangladesh are working as agricultural extension agents and provide necessary fertilizer application information to resource-poor farmers. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS: This is a case study based on Bangladesh - an emerging economy in South Asia. The findings of the study may not be generalized for other countries. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that confirms the role of agricultural input sellers as the extension agent in developing countries.

Perception and adoption of a new agricultural technology: Evidence from a developing country.

Adoption of new agricultural technologies is always at the center of policy interest in developing countries. In reality, despite the visible benefits of many of the new agricultural technologies, including machinery and management practices, farmers either do not adopt them or it takes a long time to begin the adoption process and scaling up. To enhance the provision of irrigation using surface water and to enhance irrigation efficiency, Bangladesh has been trying to introduce the axial-flow-pump (AFP) appropriate for surface water irrigation, which can lift up to 55% more water, conditional on the water head, than a conventional centrifugal pump. Despite the visible benefits of the AFP, the uptake of the AFP for irrigation is low in the targeted zone of Bangladesh. The present study demonstrates that the new technology must be modified to adapt to local demand and specifications. Most importantly, the price of the new technology must be competitive with the prices of the existing available substitute technologies to ensure a rapid uptake and scaling up of this new agricultural technology.

Threat of wheat blast to South Asia's food security: An ex-ante analysis.

New biotic stresses have emerged around the globe over the last decades threatening food safety and security. In 2016, scientists confirmed the presence of the devastating wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh, South Asia-its first occurrence outside South America. Severely blast-affected wheat fields had their grain yield wiped out. This poses a severe threat to food security in a densely-populated region with millions of poor inhabitants where wheat is a major staple crop and per capita wheat consumption has been increasing. As an ex ante impact assessment, this study examined potential wheat-blast scenarios in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Based on the agro-climatic conditions in the epicenter, where the disease was first identified in Bangladesh in 2016, this study identified the correspondingly vulnerable areas in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh amounting to 7 million ha. Assuming a conservative scenario of 5-10% for blast-induced wheat production loss, this study estimated the annual potential wheat loss across the sampled countries to be 0.89-1.77 million tons, equivalent to USD 132-264 million. Such losses further threaten an already-precarious national food security, putting pressure on wheat imports and wheat prices. The study is a call for action to tackle the real wheat-blast threat in South Asia.

Consumption of food away from home in Bangladesh: Do rich households spend more?

While consumption of food away from home (FAFH) is an established phenomenon among households in the developed countries, FAFH is a growing phenomenon in many middle-income and rapidly growing developing countries. Although, studies are available on the factors affecting consumption of FAFH in developed countries, there is a paucity of such studies in developing countries. This study examines households' choice of and expenditures on FAFH. We used information from Bangladeshi households and applied a double-hurdle regression model estimation procedure. Findings show that, in general, rich households are spending proportionately less on FAFH and, over time, the trend is continuing. Although households with female members who work in the non-farm sector are more likely to consume FAFH, educated household heads and spouses, and particularly urban households are less likely to consume and spend on FAFH. As the problem of food adulteration by dishonest sellers is rampant in Bangladesh, perhaps it discourages rich, urban and households headed by educated heads and spouses to consume and spend more on FAFH. Based on the findings, some points of interventions are also prescribed in this study.

Enhancing Smallholder Access to Agricultural Machinery Services: Lessons from Bangladesh.

Resource poor smallholders in developing countries often lack access to capital goods such as farm machinery. Enabling adequate access through machinery services can thereby significantly contribute to food security and farm incomes. At the core of the service provision model is the lead farmer, who makes the initial investment in agricultural machinery, and provides services to others on a fee-for-service basis. Profiling the lead farmers can thereby provide important lessons and scaling implications. The present paper provides a case study of Bangladesh, using primary data to characterise the lead farmers. General education, credit availability and risk taking attitude play significant roles in whether or not a farm household will be a lead farmer in Bangladesh.

Factors associated with small-scale agricultural machinery adoption in Bangladesh: Census findings.

There is strong advocacy for agricultural machinery appropriate for smallholder farmers in South Asia. Such 'scale-appropriate' machinery can increase returns to land and labour, although the still substantial capital investment required can preclude smallholder ownership. Increasing machinery demand has resulted in relatively well-developed markets for rental services for tillage, irrigation, and post-harvest operations. Many smallholders thereby access agricultural machinery that may have otherwise been cost prohibitive to purchase through fee-for-service arrangements, though opportunity for expansion remains. To more effectively facilitate the development and investment in scale-appropriate machinery, there is a need to better understand the factors associated with agricultural machinery purchases and service provision. This paper first reviews Bangladesh's historical policy environment that facilitated the development of agricultural machinery markets. It then uses recent Bangladesh census data from 814,058 farm households to identify variables associated with the adoption of the most common smallholder agricultural machinery - irrigation pumps, threshers, and power tillers (mainly driven by two-wheel tractors). Multinomial probit model results indicate that machinery ownership is positively associated with household assets, credit availability, electrification, and road density. These findings suggest that donors and policy makers should focus not only on short-term projects to boost machinery adoption. Rather, sustained emphasis on improving physical and civil infrastructure and services, as well as assuring credit availability, is also necessary to create an enabling environment in which the adoption of scale-appropriate farm machinery is most likely.