Field Implementation of Forecasting Models for Predicting Nursery Mortality in a Midwestern US Swine Production System.

The performance of five forecasting models was investigated for predicting nursery mortality using the master table built for 3242 groups of pigs (~13 million animals) and 42 variables, which concerned the pre-weaning phase of production and conditions at placement in growing sites. After training and testing each model's performance through cross-validation, the model with the best overall prediction results was the Support Vector Machine model in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE = 0.406), Mean Absolute Error (MAE = 0.284), and Coefficient of Determination (R2 = 0.731). Subsequently, the forecasting performance of the SVM model was tested on a new dataset containing 72 new groups, simulating ongoing and near real-time forecasting analysis. Despite a decrease in R2 values on the new dataset (R2 = 0.554), the model demonstrated high accuracy (77.78%) for predicting groups with high (>5%) or low (<5%) nursery mortality. This study demonstrated the capability of forecasting models to predict the nursery mortality of commercial groups of pigs using pre-weaning information and stocking condition variables collected post-placement in nursery sites.

Utilizing productivity and health breeding-to-market information along with disease diagnostic data to identify pig mortality risk factors in a U.S. swine production system.

Aggregated diagnostic data collected over time from swine production systems is an important data source to investigate swine productivity and health, especially when combined with records concerning the pre-weaning and post-weaning phases of production. The combination of multiple data streams collected over the lifetime of the pigs is the essence of the whole-herd epidemiological investigation. This approach is particularly valuable for investigating the multifaceted and ever-changing factors contributing to wean-to-finish (W2F) swine mortality. The objective of this study was to use a retrospective dataset ("master table") containing information on 1,742 groups of pigs marketed over time to identify the major risk factors associated with W2F mortality. The master table was built by combining historical breed-to-market performance and health data with disease diagnostic records (Dx Codes) from marketed groups of growing pigs. After building the master table, univariate analyses were conducted to screen for risk factors to be included in the initial multivariable model. After a stepwise backward model selection approach, 5 variables and 2 interactions remained in the final model. Notably, the diagnosis variable significantly associated with W2F mortality was porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV). Closeouts with clinical signs suggestive of Salmonella spp. or Escherichia coli infection were also associated with higher W2F mortality. Source sow farm factors that remained significantly associated with W2F mortality were the sow farm PRRS status, average weaning age, and the average pre-weaning mortality. After testing for the possible interactions in the final model, two interactions were significantly associated with wean-to-finish pig mortality: (1) sow farm PRRS status and a laboratory diagnosis of PRRSV and (2) average weaning age and a laboratory diagnosis of PRRS. Closeouts originating from PRRS epidemic or PRRS negative sow farms, when diagnosed with PRRS in the growing phase, had the highest W2F mortality rates. Likewise, PRRS diagnosis in the growing phase was an important factor in mortality, regardless of the average weaning age of the closeouts. Overall, this study demonstrated the utility of a whole-herd approach when analyzing diagnostic information along with breeding-to-market productivity and health information, to measure the major risk factors associated with W2F mortality in specified time frames and pig populations.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection in tongue tips from dead animals.

The control of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) hinges on monitoring and surveillance. The objective of this study was to assess PRRSV RNA detection by RT-PCR in tongue tips from dead suckling piglets compared to serum samples, processing fluids, and family oral fluids. Tongue tips and serum samples were collected from three PRRSV-positive breeding herd farms (farms A, B, and C) of three different age groups: newborns (<24 h), processing (2 to 7 days of age), and weaning (18 to 22 days of age). Additionally, processing fluids and family oral fluids were collected from 2-7 days of age and weaning age, respectively. In farms A and B, PRRSV RNA was detected in tongue tips from all age groups (100 and 95%, respectively). In addition, PRRSV RNA was detected in pooled serum samples (42 and 27%), processing fluids (100 and 50%), and family oral fluids (11 and 22%). Interestingly, the average Ct value from tongue tips was numerically lower than the average Ct value from serum samples in the newborn age. In farm C, PRRSV RNA was only detected in serum samples (60%) and family oral fluids (43%), both from the weaning age. Further, no PRRSV RNA was detected in tongue tips when pooled serum samples from the same age group tested PRRSV RNA-negative. Taken together, these results demonstrate the potential value of tongue tips for PRRSV monitoring and surveillance.

Comparison of virus detection, productivity, and economic performance between lots of growing pigs vaccinated with two doses or one dose of PRRS MLV vaccine, under field conditions.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) causes a significant economic impact on swine production. It has been demonstrated that PRRS modified-live virus (MLV) vaccination of pigs, with one full dose, significantly reduces clinical consequences of wild-type PRRSV infection compared to non-vaccinates. However, there is limited information about the effect that two doses of PRRSV MLV vaccine have on the performance of growing pigs, compared to vaccination with a single dose. This study was conducted with the objectives to compare (a) the wild-type PRRSV detection in oral fluids over time, (b) key closeout productivity indicators, and (c) economic performance between lots of growing pigs vaccinated with two doses of Ingelvac PRRS® MLV vaccine and lots vaccinated with a single dose of the same vaccine. This randomized field trial included 15 lots of growing pigs from PRRSV positive-unstable sow farms and 66 lots from PRRSV positive-stable sow farms, according to the American association of swine veterinarians' terminology. All pig lots received the first vaccination either around processing or weaning age. Lots allocated in the two doses group received the second vaccination three to four weeks after the first vaccination. The pig lots were monitored for PRRSV detection over time. Six oral fluids samples were collected in three weeks intervals and were tested for wild-type PRRSV-2 RNA by RT-qPCR and open reading frame 5 (ORF)- 5 sequencing. Regression models were used to compare wild-type PRRSV detection dynamics on oral fluids samples and to compare key closeout performance indicators between one dose group and two doses group. Additionally, a benefit-cost ratio analysis compared economic performance between one dose group and two doses group. The proportion of wild-type PRRSV detection on oral fluids samples and the log counts of viral RNA per ml of oral fluids from the two doses group was lower than the one dose group on lots originated from PRRSV positive-stable sow farms, with a risk ratio of 1.24 and a rate ratio of 1.17, respectively. The two doses group had a significantly lower mortality rate than the one dose group, with a rate ratio of 1.21. The effect size increased on lots originated from PRRSV positive-unstable sow farms, and on lots with higher frequency and diversity of wild-type PRRSV detection during the growth phase. No differences in growth performance were detected between two doses group and one dose group. The second MLV vaccination dose had a benefit-cost ratio of 1.83. For lots originated from PRRSV positive-unstable farms, the benefit-cost ratio was 4.45, and for lots originated from PRRSV positive-stable farms, the benefit-cost ratio was 0.45. Under study conditions, vaccinating growing pig lots with two doses of PRRS MLV vaccine was a useful strategy to immunize growing pigs against PRRSV, lowering the wild-type PRRSV detection, lowering mortality rate, and increasing profitability, compared to lots of growing pigs that received a single dose of the same vaccine.

Whole-herd risk factors associated with wean-to-finish mortality under the conditions of a Midwestern USA swine production system.

Swine wean-to-finish (W2F) mortality is a multifactorial, dynamic process and a key performance indicator of commercial swine production. Although swine producers typically capture the relevant data, analysis of W2F mortality risk factors is often hindered by the fact that, even if data is available, they are typically in different formats, non-uniform, and dispersed among multiple unconnected databases. In this study, an automated framework was created to link multiple data streams to specific cohorts of market animals, including sow farm productivity parameters, sow farm and growing pig health factors, facilities, management factors, and closeout data from a Midwestern USA production system. The final dataset (master-table) contained breeding-to-market data for 1,316 cohorts of pigs marketed between July 2018 and June 2019. Following integration into a master-table, continuous explanatory variables were categorized into quartiles averages, and the W2F mortality was log-transformed, reporting geometric mean mortality of 8.69 % for the study population. Further, univariate analyses were performed to identify individual variables associated with W2F mortality (p < 0.10) for further inclusion in a multivariable model, where model selection was applied. The final multivariable model consisted of 13 risk factors and accounted for 68.2 % (R2) of the variability of the W2F mortality, demonstrating that sow farm health and performance are closely linked to downstream W2F mortality. Higher sow farm productivity was associated with lower subsequent W2F mortality and, conversely, lower sow farm productivity with higher W2F mortality e.g., groups weaned in the highest quartiles for pre-weaning mortality and abortion rate had 13.5 %, and 12.5 %, respectively, which was statistically lower than the lowest quartiles for the same variables (10.5 %, and 10.6 %). Moreover, better sow farm health status was also associated with lower subsequent W2F mortality. A significant difference was detected in W2F mortality between epidemic versus negative groups for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (15.4 % vs 8.7 %), and Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae epidemic versus negative groups (13.7 % vs 9.9 %). Overall, this study demonstrated the application of a whole-herd analysis by aggregating information of the pre-weaning phase with the post-weaning phase (breeding-to-market) to identify and measure the major risk factors of W2F mortality.

Complete Coding Genome Sequence of a Novel Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus 2 Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism 1-4-4 Lineage 1C Variant Identified in Iowa, USA.

A porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus 2 strain was identified in lung samples from nursery piglets associated with a 17.15% mortality rate on a swine farm in Iowa. Open reading frame 5 (ORF5) sequencing indicated that this strain is a restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) 1-4-4 lineage 1C variant strain, and its complete coding genome sequence was determined.

Association of wild-type PRRSV detection patterns with mortality of MLV-vaccinated growing pig groups.

PRRS is a viral disease characterized by increasing reproduction losses in breeding herds and worsening performance of growing pigs, which leads to a considerable economic impact. A better understanding of the differences in the infection patterns of the virus in growing pig batches would help to develop cost-effective surveillance methods and disease control and elimination programs. Therefore, field studies documenting growing pig productivity according to the patterns of wild-type-PRRSV (wt-PRRSV) detection in the field are needed. This study was conducted with the objectives to (1) characterize patterns of wt-PRRSV-1 and wt-PRRSV-2 RNA detection over time in modified-live virus (MLV)-vaccinated batches of growing pigs raised in pig-dense regions of the USA; (2) compare wean-to-finish mortality among batches of growing pigs characterized with the different patterns of wt-PRRSV-1 and wt-PRRSV-2 detection; and (3) compare wean-to-finish mortality among batches of growing pigs characterized with the different patterns of wt-PRRSV-2 detection and vaccinated with two different doses of PRRS MLV vaccine. Eighty-one batches of growing pigs were originated from PRRSV positive-stable and unstable sow farms and vaccinated with two different doses of PRRS MLV vaccine. All batches were monitored for wt-PRRSV by testing six oral fluids every three weeks from weaning to marketing. Diagnostics were conducted to detect wt-PRRSV-1 and wt-PRRSV-2 by RT-qPCR testing and ORF-5 region sequencing. K-means clustering analysis was applied to identify batches sharing similar patterns of wt-PRRSV detection over time. Regression analyses were used to compare mortality among batches of growing pigs characterized with different patterns of wt-PRRSV detection over time. Thirty-eight percent of batches were detected with wt-PRRSV-1 during the growth phase, with three different patterns of detection. Detection of wt-PRRSV-1 was not associated with significant increase on mortality. Ninety-one percent of batches were detected with wt-PRRSV-2 during the growth phase, with four different patterns of detection. Batches originated from PRRSV positive-unstable farms had highest mortality rate (p < 0.0001) and were characterized as Unstable wt-PRRSV-2 detection pattern. Batches characterized with Early wt-PRRSV-2 detection pattern had higher mortality than batches characterized by Mid, Late and No wt-PRRSV-2 detection during the growth phase (p < 0.0001). Batches with Mid wt-PRRSV-2 detection had higher mortality than batches characterized with Late wt-PRRSV-2 detection (p < 0.0124). Mortality rate of batches characterized with Unstable and Early wt-PRRSV-2 detection patterns was lower when pigs were vaccinated with two doses of PRRS MLV vaccine, compared to batches that received only one dose. Results presented in this study suggested that early wt-PRRSV exposure on pig populations was associated with higher wean-to-finish mortality. Additionally, results suggested that vaccination with two PRRS MLV doses was associated with lower mortality rate, when growing pig populations had early wt-PRRSV exposure.

Assessment of immediate production impact following attenuated PRRS type 2 virus vaccination in swine breeding herds.

BACKGROUND: To mitigate production impact of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus outbreaks, it has been common to preventively vaccinate swine breeding herds using PRRS modified live virus (MLV) vaccine. However, attenuated PRRS virus (PRRSv) may result negative impact on farm productivity. The objective of this study was to measure the immediate impact of PRRS type 2 MLV vaccine on breeding herd performance under field conditions. Eight PRRS-stable farms routinely mass vaccinating females with commercial PRRS MLV vaccines were enrolled on study. Vaccination dates were collected and weekly changes in abortions, neonatal losses, pre-weaning mortality, pigs weaned per sow, and wean-to-first-service interval were assessed for up to 6 weeks after each vaccination. A 6-week period prior to each vaccination was established as baseline. Statistical process control (SPC) analysis was conducted to detect significant productivity decreases after MLV interventions, on each farm, and a mixed regression model was used, at the aggregated data level, to assess the productivity change 6 weeks after PRRS MLV vaccinations, compared to baseline. RESULTS: Out of 65 herd-MLV vaccinations, SPC analysis detected increase on abortions 4 times (6.1%), on neonatal losses 7 times (10.7%), on pre-weaning mortality 2 times (3%), on wean-to-first-service interval 2 times (3%), and no change in total pigs weaned. On aggregated data analysis, there was no significant change in abortion rate, neonatal losses, number of pigs weaned per sow, and wean-to-first-service interval. However, there was an increase of 0.26% of pre-weaning mortality 2 weeks after vaccination compared to the baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Under study conditions, individual PRRS-stable sow farms had experienced transient, and numerically small changes in productivity following PRRS type 2 MLV vaccination. There was a small increase of pre-weaning mortality 2 weeks after vaccination, but no evidence of significant production impact at aggregated data analysis for abortion rate, neonatal losses, pigs weaned per sow and wean-to-first-service interval.