Effects of extending dairy cow longevity by adjusted reproduction management decisions on partial net return and greenhouse gas emissions: A dynamic stochastic herd simulation study.

Prolonging dairy cattle longevity is regarded as one of the options to contribute to more sustainable milk production. Since failure to conceive is one of the main reasons for culling, this study investigates how adjustments in reproduction management affect partial net return at herd level and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of milk, using a dynamic stochastic simulation model. The effects of reproduction decisions that extend cattle longevity on milk yield, calving interval and pregnancy rate were derived from actual performance of Dutch commercial dairy cows over multiple lactations. The model simulated lactations, calving and health status events of individual cows for herds of 100 cows. Scenarios evaluated differed in the maximum number of consecutive artificial insemination (AI) attempts (4, 5 or 6 services), or the production threshold (20, 15, or 10 kg milk per day) at which cows that failed to conceive are culled (reproductive culling). Annual partial net return was computed from revenues of sold milk, calves and slaughtered cows, and the costs from feed consumption, rearing replacement heifers, AI services and treatment for clinical mastitis and lameness. Greenhouse gas emissions were computed for feed production, enteric fermentation, and manure management, and were expressed as total CO2 equivalents. Average age at culling increased with an increased maximum number of AI services. This increase was larger when going from a maximum of 4 to 5 AI attempts (108 d) than from a maximum of 5 to 6 attempts (47 d). Similarly, the average age at culling increased from 1,968 to 2,040 and 2,132 d when the threshold for reproductive culling decreased from 20, to 15 and 10 kg milk per day, respectively. Average annual partial net return increased by 1.1% from €165,850 per 100 cows at a maximum of 4 AIs to €167,670 per 100 cows at a maximum of 6 AIs, and increased by 4.3% from €161,210 per 100 cows at a reproductive culling threshold of 10 kg/day to €168,190 per 100 cows at a threshold of 20 kg/day. Greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 1.2% from 0.926 to 0.915 kg CO2 equivalents per kg fat-and-protein-corrected milk (FPCM) with an increase in a maximum number of AIs from 4 to 6 AIs. Conversely, greenhouse gas emissions increased by 0.2% from 0.926 kg at a threshold of reproductive culling of 20 kg/day to 0.928 kg CO2 equivalents per kg FPCM at a threshold of 10 kg/day. Although lowering the threshold for reproductive culling has the potential to extend cattle longevity more than increasing the maximum number of AI services, only the increase in AI services benefits a farm's partial net return, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Associations between dairy farm performance indicators and culling rates under policy-driven herd size constraints.

Introduction: This article aimed to study cross-sectional associations between the performance of dairy farms and their corresponding culling proportions under the herd size constraint as imposed in 2018 by the new phosphate regulation in the Netherlands. Methods: To this end, production data from 10,540 Dutch dairy farms were analyzed to capture the inflow and outflow of both primiparous and multiparous cows. Farm performance was measured by 10 indicators structured in four areas of longevity, production, reproduction, and udder health. Farm culling proportions were represented by the overall culling (OC) and the number of culled primiparous cows in relation to (i) the total number of producing cows (PC), (ii) the number of producing primiparous cows (PPC), and (iii) the number of culled producing cows (POC). Spearman's rank correlation and weighted logistic regression were adopted to study associations. Results: In 2018, on average, 28% of producing cows were culled (OC). The number of primiparous cows culled represented 4.5% of the total number of producing cows (PC) and the mean proportion of culled primiparous cows was 18.8% of the total number of producing primiparous cows (PPC), and, of the total number of producing culled cows, 15% were primiparous cows (POC). However, the variance around the mean, and among individual farms, was high (SD 4-15% for all four culling proportions). Results from rank correlation showed very low-rank conformity (<12%) between the areas of production, reproduction, and udder health to the culling proportions. Results from logistic regression showed that higher farm levels of production and higher percentages of cows with poor udder health were associated with more overall culling but with less primiparous culling. For reproduction indicators, the associations were similar for overall and primiparous culling. However, except for the average age of culled animals, the odds ratios for indicators were close to 1 (range: 0.92-1.07 and 0.68-1.07 for OC and PPC, respectively), indicating only weak associations to culling proportions. Discussion: In conclusion, although the introduction of phosphate regulation resulted in an increased outflow of cattle, corresponding culling proportions were not associated with the level of farm performance measured in terms of production, reproduction, or udder health.

The association of herd performance indicators with dairy cow longevity: An empirical study.

The associations between reproductive performance, milk yield and health status with the risk of culling, and thus with a cow's longevity, have been well documented at the individual cow level. Associations at individual cow level may, however, not be valid at herd level due to interrelated herd management aspects and/or policy restrictions. The objective of this study was to explore the association of herd performance indicators with herd-level dairy cow longevity under Dutch production conditions. Longevity was expressed by three different measures, viz. age at culling, lifetime milk production of culled cows and culling rate. The evaluated herd performance indicators included factors on milk production, youngstock rearing, reproduction and health performance as registered on 10 719 Dutch commercial dairy herds during the period 2007-2016. Averaged over herds and the evaluated period, the age of culled milking cows was 2 139 days (5.8 years, SD±298 days), the lifetime milk production of culled cows was 31 238 kg (SD±7,494 kg), and the culling rate was 0.24 (SD±0.08). A mixed linear regression modelling approach was applied to evaluate the association of each of the three longevity measures with the selected herd performance indicators. The results indicated that only four herd performance indictors (herd size, herd expansion, heifer ratio and the proportion of cows with potential subclinical ketosis) shared significant associations with all three longevity variables. Generally, the strength of the associations between each of the evaluated longevity measures and herd performance indicators was only limited. The absence of strong associations between the longevity measures and herd performance indicators reveal that there is potential of extending cattle longevity without affecting the herd performance in terms of milk production, reproduction and health. Moreover, only part of the observed variance in longevity among the herds over time was explained by the herd performance variables, indicating that differences in longevity at herd level may predominantly be determined by other factors, like farmers' attitude and strategic management.

The association of dairy cattle longevity with farm level technical inefficiency.

Prolonging dairy cattle longevity is regarded as one of the options to contribute to a more sustainable milk production. Cattle longevity is a direct result from culling decisions, which is primarily driven by economic considerations. As a consequence, at the herd level, cattle longevity can have effects on the efficiency of dairy production. This study investigates the technical inefficiency of dairy input, and its association with cattle longevity under Dutch commercial dairy production conditions, using a two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. First, the technical inefficiency of capital, labor, land, seed & crop protection expenses, veterinary services, livestock purchase & services, feed purchase, miscellanea, livestock units and total input on total farm revenues was computed using DEA. Secondly, a bootstrap truncated regression analysis was applied to identify the association of cattle longevity with the evaluated input-specific and total input scores for technical inefficiency. Data were compiled from performance and accountancy records of 1,037 commercial Dutch dairy herds over the period of 2007 to 2014. In general, Dutch dairy farms displayed a relatively good overall technical efficiency, represented by an average inefficiency score of 0.09. The economic benefit of extending cattle longevity was evidenced by the negative association of cattle longevity with total input inefficiency. Of the evaluated inputs, the utilization of livestock units and feed was most efficient, with inefficiency scores below 0.26. This contrasts with the poor input efficiency of capital and livestock purchase & services with inefficiency scores around 0.52. Although the strength of the evaluated associations was generally low, the regression results illustrated that, except for labor, the age of culled cows was significantly negatively associated (P < 0.05) with each of the input inefficiencies. This contrasts with the significant associations of input inefficiencies with lifetime milk production, which were mostly positive. Since lifetime milk production is driven by length of cattle lifespan in combination with production level of the cows, the reverse direction of the associations with the two longevity indices illustrates that prolonging cattle longevity can improve efficiency performance of a dairy farm as long as the milk yield per cow remains unchanged.

Survival analysis of dairy cows in the Netherlands under altering agricultural policy.

Culling of underperforming dairy cows by replacement heifers is a fundamental part of Dutch dairy farm management. Changes in national agricultural policies can influence farmers' culling decisions. The objective of this study was to analyse the relevancy of cow-level risk factors for survival of Dutch dairy cows under perturbations due to national policy changes related to the -milk quota abolishment of 2015 and the phosphate regulations since 2017. For this purpose, an accelerated failure time model was fitted on-longitudinal dairy cows' data at national level covering the period 2009-2019. The associated cow-level risk factors for culling such as lactation value (relative production level), parity number, rolling average of inseminations over all parities, very high fat-protein ratio (highFPR) and very low fat-protein ratio (lowFPR) in early lactation, test-day somatic cell count, were fitted in the model. Along with these, a factor representing three target policy periods, namely Milk Quota period (MQ), Post-Milk Quota period (PMQ) and Phosphate regulation period (PH) were fitted. The mean survival age for all producing cows was 441 weeks overall. The predicted median survival time for the policy periods MQ, PMQ and PH were 273 weeks, 271 weeks and 256 weeks, respectively. Risk factors such as lactation value, parity and highFPR, rolling average of inseminations over all parities were positively associated with survival time in all three policy periods. Risk factors such as test-day somatic cell count and lowFPR were negatively associated with survival time in all three policy periods. In conclusion, this study demonstrated the differences in survival of Dutch dairy cows in response to changing agricultural policy. The association of cow-level risk factors for culling was consistent across the three evaluated policy periods.

An Empirical Analysis on the Longevity of Dairy Cows in Relation to Economic Herd Performance.

Several studies have stated the various effects of an increased dairy cow longevity on economic herd performance, but empirical studies are lacking. This study aimed to investigate the association between longevity of dairy cows and the economic performance of dairy herds based on longitudinal Dutch accounting data. Herd and farm accounting data (n = 855 herds) over the years 2007-2016 were analyzed. Herd data contained yearly averages on longevity features, herd size and several production variables. Longevity was defined as the age of cows at culling and by lifetime milk production of culled cows. Farm accounting data contained yearly averages on revenues, fixed and variable costs of the herds, by which gross margins were defined. Data was analyzed using generalized linear mixed modeling, with gross margin as dependent variable. The independent variables consisted of average age of culled cows, average lifetime production of culled cows, year, herd size, herd intensity (milk production per ha), herd expansion rate, soil type, milking system, successor availability, total full-time equivalent, heifer ratio (% of heifers per cow) and use of outsourced heifer rearing. Herd was included as a random effect to account for the heterogeneity among herds. Descriptive statistics showed that the average age of culled cows was 5.87 (STD = 0.78) years and the average lifetime milk production of culled cows was 31.87 (STD = 7.56) tons per cow with an average herd size of 89 cows (STD = 38.85). The average age of culled cows was stable over the 10 years (variation between 5.79 AND 5.90 years). The gross margin was on average €24.80/100 kg milk (STD = 4.67), with the lowest value in year 2009 and the highest value in year 2013. Gross margin was not significantly associated with age of culled cows and lifetime milk production of culled cows. Variance in longevity between herds was large (STD = 0.78 years) but herds with a higher longevity did not perform economically better nor worse than herds resulting in lower longevity. This indicates that, within current practice, there is potential for improving longevity in order to meet society's concerns on animal welfare and environmental pollution, without affecting the economic performance of the herd.

Incentives to Stimulate European Wheat Farmers to Adapt Their Fusarium Species Mycotoxin Management.

Fusarium species infection in wheat can lead to Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) and contamination with mycotoxins. To fully exploit more recent insights into FHB and mycotoxin management, farmers might need to adapt their agronomic management, which can be stimulated through incentives. This study aimed to identify incentives to stimulate European farmers to adapt their agronomic management to reduce FHB and related mycotoxins in wheat. A questionnaire was distributed among 224 wheat farmers from Italy, the Netherlands, Serbia, and the United Kingdom. Using the respondents' data, Bayesian Network modelling was applied to estimate the probability that farmers would adapt their current agronomic management under eight different incentives given the conditions set by their farm and farmer characteristics. Results show that most farmers would adapt their current agronomic management under the incentives "paid extra when wheat contains low levels of mycotoxins" and "wheat is tested for the presence of mycotoxins for free". The most effective incentive depended on farm and farmer characteristics, such as country, crop type, size of arable land, soil type, education, and mycotoxin knowledge. Insights into the farmer characteristics related to incentives can help stakeholders in the wheat supply chain, such as farmer cooperatives and the government, to design tailor-made incentive plans.

Policy Perspectives of Dog-Mediated Rabies Control in Resource-Limited Countries: The Ethiopian Situation.

One Health disease-control programs are believed to be most effective when implemented within the population transmitting the disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) and partners have targeted the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies by 2030 primarily through mass dog vaccination. Mass vaccination, however, has been constrained by financial resource limitations. The current owner-charged dog vaccination strategy, used in most resource-limited countries like Ethiopia, has not reached the minimum coverage required to build population immunity. Dog vaccination is non-existing in most rural areas of Ethiopia, and coverage is <20% in urban areas. Although the health and economic benefits of rabies elimination outweigh the costs, the direct beneficiaries (public in general) and those who bear the costs (dog owners) are not necessarily the same. In this perspective paper, we aggregate evidence on the socioeconomic burden of rabies in Ethiopia as well as the implications for potential opportunities to control the disease and possibilities to obtain the required funding sources for evidence-based interventions in the control of rabies in Ethiopia.

Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives.

Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants.

Evaluation of the Control Options of Bovine Tuberculosis in Ethiopia Using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is a zoonotic bacterial infection caused by Mycobacterium bovis and is characterized by the development of granulomatous lesions in the lymph nodes, lungs and other tissues. It poses serious public health impacts and food security challenges to the agricultural sector in terms of dairy and meat productions. In Ethiopia, BTB has been considered as a priority disease because of its high prevalence in urban and peri-urban dairy farms. However, there has not been any national control program in the country. Thus, in order to initiate BTB control program in the country, information on control options is needed to tailor the best option for the Ethiopian situation. The objective of this study was to identify, evaluate and rank various BTB control options in Ethiopia using a multi-criteria decision analysis based on preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) approach while accounting for the stakeholders' preferences. Control options were evaluated under two scenarios: with (scenario 1) and without (scenario 2) bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination. Nine potential control options were identified that include combinations of three control options (1) test and slaughter with or without government support, (2) test and segregation, and (3) BCG vaccination. Under scenario 1, BCG vaccination, BCG vaccination and test and slaughter with partial compensation by government, and BCG vaccination and test and slaughter with full compensation by government were the top three ranked control options. Under scenario 2, test and slaughter with full compensation by government was the preferred control option, followed by test and segregation supported by test and slaughter with full government compensation, and test and slaughter with half compensation by government. Irrespective of the variability in the weighting by the stakeholders, the sensitivity analysis showed the robustness of the ranking method. In conclusion, the study demonstrated that BCG vaccination, and test and slaughter with full compensation by government were the two most preferred control options under scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. National level discussions were strongly recommended for further concretization and implementation of these control measures.

Impact of One-Health framework on vaccination cost-effectiveness: A case study of rabies in Ethiopia.

Livestock losses due to rabies and health and the corresponding benefits of controlling the disease are not often considered when the cost-effectiveness of rabies control is evaluated. In this research, assessed the benefits of applying a One Health perspective that includes these losses to the case of canine rabies vaccination in Ethiopia. We constructed a dynamic epidemiological model of rabies transmission. The model was fit to district-specific data on human rabies exposures and canine demography for two districts with distinct agro-ecologies. The epidemiological model was coupled with human and livestock economic outcomes to predict the health and economic impacts under a range of vaccination scenarios. The model indicates that human exposures, human deaths, and rabies-related livestock losses would decrease monotonically with increasing vaccination coverage. In the rural district, all vaccination scenarios were found to be cost-saving compared to the status quo of no vaccination, as more money could be saved by preventing livestock losses than would be required to fund the vaccination campaigns. Vaccination coverages of 70% and 80% were identified as most likely to provide the greatest net health benefits at the WHO cost-effectiveness threshold over a period of 5 years, in urban and rural districts respectively. Shorter time frames led to recommendations for higher coverage in both districts, as did even a minor threat of rabies re-introduction. Exclusion of rabies-related livestock losses reduced the optimal vaccination coverage for the rural district to 50%. This study demonstrated the importance of including all economic consequences of zoonotic disease into control decisions. Analyses that include cattle and other rabies-susceptible livestock are likely better suited to many rural communities in Africa wishing to maximize the benefits of canine vaccination.

Estimating the burden of rabies in Ethiopia by tracing dog bite victims.

In developing countries where financial resources are limited and numerous interests compete, there is a need for quantitative data on the public health burden and costs of diseases to support intervention prioritization. This study aimed at estimating the health burden and post-exposure treatment (PET) costs of canine rabies in Ethiopia by an investigation of exposed human cases. Data on registered animal bite victims during the period of one year were collected from health centers in three districts, i.e. Bishoftu, Lemuna-bilbilo and Yabelo, to account for variation in urban highland and lowland areas. This data collection was followed by an extensive case search for unregistered victims in the same districts as the registered cases. Victims were visited and questioned on their use of PET, incurred treatment costs and the behavioral manifestations of the animal that had bitten them. Based on the collected data PET costs were evaluated by financial accounting and the health burden was estimated in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). In total 655 animal bite cases were traced of which 96.5% was caused by dog bites. 73.6% of the biting dogs were suspected to be potentially rabid dog. Annual suspected rabid dog exposures were estimated per evaluated urban, rural highland and rural lowland district at, respectively, 135, 101 and 86 bites, which led, respectively, to about 1, 4 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population. In the same district order average costs per completed PET equaled to 23, 31 and 40 USD, which was significantly higher in rural districts. Extrapolation of the district results to the national level indicated an annual estimate of approximately 3,000 human deaths resulting in about 194,000 DALYs per year and 97,000 exposed persons requiring on average 2 million USD treatment costs per year countrywide. These estimations of the burden of rabies to the Ethiopian society provide decision makers insights into the potential benefits of implementing effective interventions.

Cost-effectiveness of mass dog rabies vaccination strategies to reduce human health burden in Flores Island, Indonesia.

The cost-effectiveness of different mass dog rabies vaccination strategies, defined as the costs per year of life lost (YLL) averted was evaluated for a period of 10 years by means of a dynamic simulation study for a typical village on Flores Island. In the base strategy (no dog vaccination and no post-exposure treatment (PET) of human bite cases), the model showed that the introduction of the virus by one infectious dog into an isolated village with 1500 inhabitants and 400 dogs resulted in 881 YLLs during a 10-year simulation period, which is equivalent to 30 human rabies cases. An annual dog vaccination campaign with a coverage of 70% using a short-acting vaccine saved 832 YLLs, while the cumulative costs for the public sector were US$3646 or US$4.38 per YLL averted. Switching to a long-acting vaccine, the annual vaccination strategies with a coverage of 50% (AV_156_50) or 70% (AV_156_70) reduced the baseline YLLs from 881 to respectively 78 and 26 YLLs with cumulative costs of US$3716 and US$2264 or US$4.63 and US$2.65 per YLL averted, respectively. In general, dog vaccination was more cost-effective than PET alone (US$2.65-4.63 per YLL averted versus US$23.29 per YLL averted). Although a combination of PET with AV_156_70 was less cost-effective compared to AV_156_70 alone, this strategy was able to prevent all human deaths due to rabies. A combination of PET with annual vaccination using a short-acting vaccine at a coverage of 50% was far from being cost-effective, suggesting that the currently applied rabies control in Flores Island is not an efficient investment in reducing human rabies burden. An increased investment in either an increase in the current coverage or in a switch from the short-acting vaccine to the long-acting vaccine type would certainly pay off.

Dog rabies data reported to multinational organizations from Southern and Eastern African countries.

OBJECTIVE: Rabies is one of the viral diseases with the highest case fatality rate in humans. The main transmission route to humans is through bites, especially of infected dogs. Decisions on the allocation of resources to control and reduce the socio-economic impacts of rabies require reliable data. Several national, regional and international organizations have been gathering rabies data for more than a decade. The objective of this paper was to examine the consistencies in the number of dog rabies cases reported to different multinational organizations by Southern and Eastern African countries and to explore the presence of any time trend among the reported rabies data. RESULTS: Data was systematically extracted from the databases of the Southern and Eastern African Rabies Group-SEARG and the World Organization for Animal Health/World animal health information-OIE/WAHID. Despite differences in entities by which data have been reported to the two organisations, reported numbers were significantly correlated (Spearman's rho = 0.52, P < 0.001). The reported data did not indicate the presence of any trend in the number of reported dog rabies outbreaks. Inconsistencies in the reported numbers were observed between the databases, possibly due to the fact that human and animal health authorities report separately to the organisations involved in addition to the use of indefinite definitions of report categories set by report receiving organizations.

Cost-benefit analysis of foot and mouth disease control in Ethiopia.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) occurs endemically in Ethiopia. Quantitative insights on its national economic impact and on the costs and benefits of control options are, however, lacking to support decision making in its control. The objectives of this study were, therefore, to estimate the annual costs of FMD in cattle production systems of Ethiopia, and to conduct an ex ante cost-benefit analysis of potential control alternatives. The annual costs of FMD were assessed based on production losses, export losses and control costs. The total annual costs of FMD under the current status quo of no official control program were estimated at 1354 (90% CR: 864-2042) million birr. The major cost (94%) was due to production losses. The costs and benefits of three potential control strategies: 1) ring vaccination (reactive vaccination around outbreak area supported by animal movement restrictions, 2) targeted vaccination (annual preventive vaccination in high risk areas plus ring vaccination in the rest of the country), and 3) preventive mass vaccination (annual preventive vaccination of the whole national cattle population) were compared with the baseline scenario of no official control program. Experts were elicited to estimate the influence of each of the control strategies on outbreak incidence and number of cases per outbreak. Based on these estimates, the incidence of the disease was simulated stochastically for 10 years. Preventive mass vaccination was epidemiologically the most efficient control strategy by reducing the national outbreak incidence below 5% with a median time interval of 3 years, followed by targeted vaccination strategy with a corresponding median time interval of 5 years. On average, all evaluated control strategies resulted in positive net present values. The ranges in the net present values were, however, very wide, including negative values. The targeted vaccination strategy was the most economic strategy with a median benefit cost ratio of 4.29 (90%CR: 0.29-9.63). It was also the least risky strategy with 11% chance of a benefit cost ratio of less than one. The study indicates that FMD has a high economic impact in Ethiopia. Its control is predicted to be economically profitable even without a full consideration of gains from export. The targeted vaccination strategy is shown to provide the largest economic return with a relatively low risk of loss. More studies to generate data, especially on production impact of the disease and effectiveness of control measures are needed to improve the rigor of future analysis.

Incidence and economic impact of rabies in the cattle population of Ethiopia.

Rabies is a viral disease that can cause fatal encephalomyelitis both in animals and humans. Although incidences of the disease in cattle have been reported, insight in the economic impact of the disease in livestock remains limited. By affecting cattle in subsistence systems, rabies may have extensive economic impacts at household and country levels, in addition to the effects on human health. This study presents estimates of the direct economic impact of rabies at herd level in two representative subsistence cattle-farming systems in Ethiopia, the mixed crop-livestock and pastoral production systems. The economic impacts were assessed by a structured questionnaire administered to 532 cattle-owning households. These households were selected from four districts within two administrative zones; each zone representing a cattle production system. Rabies incidence rates of 21% and 11% at herd level were calculated for the mixed crop-livestock and pastoral production systems, respectively. The incidence rate at cattle level was the same in both systems., i.e. 2%. Herd-level incidence rates were higher in the mixed crop-livestock system than in the pastoral system (P<0.05). Average economic losses per herd due to rabies were estimated at 49 USD per year for the mixed-crop livestock system, and at 52 USD per year for the pastoral system; whereas in affected herds the average losses per year were 228 USD (range 48-1016 USD) in the mixed crop-livestock system, and 477 USD (range 173-1140 USD) in the pastoral system. The average herd-level economic losses were not significantly different between the farming systems; however once the herd was affected, the losses were significantly higher for the pastoral system than for the mixed crop-livestock system (P<0.01). The losses due to rabies in cattle are relatively high for pastoral households, due to their complete dependency on livestock for their livelihoods. Although the current estimates only account for the direct losses resulting from cattle mortality, the estimates already indicate the potential economic gains from a rabies intervention in the dog population, of which the benefits can be shared by the public health sector.

Intention of dog owners to participate in rabies control measures in Flores Island, Indonesia.

The success of a rabies control strategy depends on the commitment and collaboration of dog owners. In this study the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to identify the factors, which are associated with the intention of dog owners to participate in rabies control measures in the Manggarai and Sikka regencies of Flores Island, Indonesia. Questionnaires were administered to 450 dog owners from 44 randomly selected villages in the two regencies. Ninety-six percent of the dog owners intended to participate in a free-of-charge vaccination campaign. The intention decreased to 24% when dog owners were asked to pay a vaccination fee equal to the market price of the vaccine (Rp 18.000 per dose=US$2). Approximately 81% of the dog owners intended to keep their dogs inside their house or to leash them day and night during a period of at least three months in case of an incidence of rabies in the dog population within their village. Only 40% intended to cull their dogs in case of a rabies incident within their village. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, the attitude item 'vaccinating dogs reduces rabies cases in humans', and the perceived behavioural control items 'availability of time' and 'ability to confine dogs' were shown to be significantly associated with the intention to participate in a free-of-charge vaccination campaign. The attitude item 'culling dogs reduces rabies cases in humans' was significantly associated with the intention to participate in a culling measure. The attitude item 'leashing of dogs reduces human rabies cases' and perceived behavioural controls 'availability of time' and 'money to buy a leash' were associated with the intention to leash dogs during a rabies outbreak. As the attitude variables were often significantly associated with intention to participate in a rabies control measure, an educational rabies campaign focusing on the benefit of rabies control measures is expected to increase the intention of dog owners to participate in future rabies control measures. The significant association between perceived behavioural controls and intention to participate points to other relevant policy interventions. Providing dog owners with a skill to confine dogs and creating a subsidy program for the vaccine and leash costs, by involving non-governmental organisations or charitable organisations, may be useful policy interventions. Moreover appropriate time management, such as implementing vaccination campaigns during the weekend, could increase the intention to participate in vaccination campaigns, by relaxing the constraints on the availability of dog owners' time.

Uptake of rabies control measures by dog owners in Flores Island, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Rabies has been a serious public health threat in Flores Island, Indonesia since it was introduced in 1997. To control the disease, annual dog vaccination campaigns have been implemented to vaccinate all dogs free of charge. Nevertheless, the uptake rate of the vaccination campaigns has been low. The objective of this paper is to identify risk factors associated with the uptake of rabies control measures by individual dog owners in Flores Island. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 450 dog owners from 44 randomly selected villages in the Sikka and Manggarai regencies were interviewed regarding their socio-demographic factors, knowledge of rabies, and their uptake of rabies control measures. The majority of dog owners surveyed (>90%) knew that rabies is a fatal disease and that it can be prevented. Moreover, 68% of the dog owners had a high level of knowledge about available rabies control measures. Fifty-two percent of the dog owners had had at least one of their dogs vaccinated during the 2012 vaccination campaign. Vaccination uptake was significantly higher for dog owners who resided in Sikka, kept female dogs for breeding, had an income of more than one million Rupiah, and had easy access to their village. The most important reasons not to join the vaccination campaign were lack of information about the vaccination campaign schedule (40%) and difficulty to catch the dog during the vaccination campaign (37%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Dog owners in Flores Island had a high level of knowledge of rabies and its control, but this was not associated with uptake of the 2012 vaccination campaign. Geographical accessibility was one of the important factors influencing the vaccination uptake among dog owners. Targeted distribution of information on vaccination schedules and methods to catch and restrain dogs in those villages with poor accessibility may increase vaccination uptake in the future.

Review on dog rabies vaccination coverage in Africa: a question of dog accessibility or cost recovery?

BACKGROUND: Rabies still poses a significant human health problem throughout most of Africa, where the majority of the human cases results from dog bites. Mass dog vaccination is considered to be the most effective method to prevent rabies in humans. Our objective was to systematically review research articles on dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage in Africa in relation to dog accessibility and vaccination cost recovery arrangement (i.e.free of charge or owner charged). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A systematic literature search was made in the databases of CAB abstracts (EBSCOhost and OvidSP), Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, Medline (EBSCOhost and OvidSP) and AJOL (African Journal Online) for peer reviewed articles on 1) rabies control, 2) dog rabies vaccination coverage and 3) dog demography in Africa. Identified articles were subsequently screened and selected using predefined selection criteria like year of publication (viz. ≥ 1990), type of study (cross sectional), objective(s) of the study (i.e. vaccination coverage rates, dog demographics and financial arrangements of vaccination costs), language of publication (English) and geographical focus (Africa). The selection process resulted in sixteen peer reviewed articles which were used to review dog demography and dog ownership status, and dog rabies vaccination coverage throughout Africa. The main review findings indicate that 1) the majority (up to 98.1%) of dogs in African countries are owned (and as such accessible), 2) puppies younger than 3 months of age constitute a considerable proportion (up to 30%) of the dog population and 3) male dogs are dominating in numbers (up to 3.6 times the female dog population). Dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage was compared between "free of charge" and "owner charged" vaccination schemes by the technique of Meta-analysis. Results indicate that the rabies vaccination coverage following a free of charge vaccination scheme (68%) is closer to the World Health Organization recommended coverage rate (70%) than the achieved coverage rate in owner-charged dog rabies vaccination schemes (18%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Most dogs in Africa are owned and accessible for parenteral vaccination against rabies if the campaign is performed "free of charge".

Framework for modelling economic impacts of invasive species, applied to pine wood nematode in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Economic impact assessment of invasive species requires integration of information on pest entry, establishment and spread, valuation of assets at risk and market consequences at large spatial scales. Here we develop such a framework and demonstrate its application to the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, which threatens the European forestry industry. The effect of spatial resolution on the assessment result is analysed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Direct economic impacts resulting from wood loss are computed using partial budgeting at regional scale, while impacts on social welfare are computed by a partial equilibrium analysis of the round wood market at EU scale. Substantial impacts in terms of infested stock are expected in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, and North West Italy but not elsewhere in EU in the near future. The cumulative value of lost forestry stock over a period of 22 years (2008-2030), assuming no regulatory control measures, is estimated at €22 billion. The greatest yearly loss of stock is expected to occur in the period 2014-2019, with a peak of three billion euros in 2016, but stabilizing afterwards at 300-800 million euros/year. The reduction in social welfare follows the loss of stock with considerable delay because the yearly harvest from the forest is only 1.8%. The reduction in social welfare for the downstream round wood market is estimated at €218 million in 2030, whereby consumers incur a welfare loss of €357 million, while producers experience a €139 million increase, due to higher wood prices. The societal impact is expected to extend to well beyond the time horizon of the analysis, and long after the invasion has stopped. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Pinewood nematode has large economic consequences for the conifer forestry industry in the EU. A change in spatial resolution affected the calculated directed losses by 24%, but did not critically affect conclusions.