Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

OBJECTIVE: This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. METHODS: This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. RESULTS: The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. CONCLUSION: The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years.

Prevalence and severity of carpal tunnel syndrome in women.

BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is entrapment of median nerve in carpal tunnel of the wrist. The prevalence of CTS related to pregnancy and non-pregnancy is unknown in some countries such as Iran. The main aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of CTS in women of Boyerahmad Township located in South-West part of Iran. METHODS: This cross-sectional descriptive analytic study was done since February 2010 to January 2011 in Obstetrics and Gynecology clinics in 2656 non-pregnant and 1508 pregnant women. The women that had clinical symptoms of CTS performed standard electro diagnostic techniques for rule in or rule out of CTS. RESULTS: The prevalence of CTS in pregnant and non- pregnant women was 3.4 and 2 .3 percent respectively. The prevalence of CTS in all women was 2.7%. Overall, 51 pregnant women had CTS that 59.4% had mild, 18.8 % had moderate and 21.9% had severe CTS. Sixty-one non-pregnant women had CTS that 73.6 %had mild, 20.8 %t had moderate and 5.6 % had severe CTS. CONCLUSION: Although the prevalence of CTS in Iranian pregnancy is higher than non-pregnancy women conservative treatment is safe and more effective.

Canine visceral leishmaniasis in boyer ahmad district, kohgiluyeh & boyer ahmad province, southwest of iran.

BACKGROUND: Mediterranean type of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is present in different parts of Iran. Several studies have identified dogs as the main reservoirs of the VL caused by Leishmania infantum in Iran and other Mediterranean regions. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of canine visceral leishmaniasis as animal reservoir host for human visceral leishmaniasis in Boyer Ahmad district in southwest of Iran. METHODS: A seroepidemiological study was carried out to determine the seroprevalence of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) among ownership dogs by using direct agglutination test (DAT) in 23 of 182 villages of Boyer Ahmad district, during August 2009 to August 2010. One hundred and seventy serum samples from ownership dogs were selected by multi-stage cluster sampling in villages of Boyer Ahmad district. All samples were tested by DAT and anti-Leishmania antibodies titers at ≥ 1:320 was considered as positive. RESULTS: Of the 170 serum samples, 10% were positive by DAT at titers of 1:320 and higher. No statistical significant difference was found between male (10.7%) and female (8.3%) seroprevalence. The highest seroprevalence rate (15.1%) was observed among the ownership dogs of four to seven years age. Altogether, seventeen (25.4%) of the seropositive dogs had clinical signs and symptoms. CONCLUSION: It seems that Boyer Ahmad district is an endemic area for canine visceral leishmaniasis in Iran.