COVID-19 hot-spot strategy: a special innovation in pandemic response, Oyo State Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has evolved into a pandemic. Oyo state, Nigeria with a population of 9,233,010, recorded the first case of COVID-19 on the 12th of March 2020 and it is among the highest contributing States to the nation's burden of the disease with 3267 confirmed cases, including 40 deaths as of date, with an overall test positivity rate of 18.1%, far higher compared to the National average within a limited period from recorded index case. A 'Hotspot strategy' was designed by the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 and Oyo State was selected to implement the strategy through upscaling case detection, isolation and treatment, quarantine of contacts and strengthening public health and social measures. METHODS: We used a descriptive cross-sectional survey of 3 identified hotspot Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Oyo State using mobile phones under Surveillance, Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System (SORMAS) platform to collect data from October to December 2020. Interventions comprised of enhanced active case search, contact line listing, contact investigation, and contact follow-up as well as to facilitate data collection and entry, community sensitization and management of alert/rumors. Baseline information and that after the 3-month period was then analyzed with the descriptive statistics presented. RESULTS: The implementation of the hotspot strategy was shown to have had a major impact in Irepo LGA, where more than a 100% increase in samples tested, confirmed cases, contacts listed and contacts followed were recorded, while there were no significance changes noticed in Ibadan North and Lagelu LGAs. However, test positivity rates among contacts were found to be quite high in Ibadan North LGA (48%), compared to the other two, even though Lagelu LGA (5.7%) tested more contacts than Ibadan North. CONCLUSION: The observed increase in number of samples tested, cases confirmed, contact listed and investigated as well as test positivity rate in the 3 LGAs after the intervention implies that the hotspot strategy can be said to have contributed positively to the sensitivity of COVID-19 surveillance in Oyo State, Nigeria. This implies that strengthening this 'hotspot strategy' may be a key area of focus to improve COVID-19 surveillance sensitivity and response and in turn may help in breaking the transmission and bringing the pandemic to a halt.

Epidemiology of physical inactivity in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is crucial to preventing noncommunicable diseases. This study aimed to provide up-to-date evidence on the epidemiology of insufficient physical activity across Nigeria to increase awareness and prompt relevant policy and public health response. METHODS: A systematic literature search of community-based studies on physical inactivity was conducted. We constructed a meta-regression epidemiologic model to determine the age-adjusted prevalence and number of physically inactive persons in Nigeria for 1995 and 2020. RESULTS: Fifteen studies covering a population of 13 814 adults met our selection criteria. The pooled crude prevalence of physically inactive persons in Nigeria was 52.0% (95% CI: 33.7-70.4), with prevalence in women higher at 55.8% (95% CI: 29.4-82.3) compared to men at 49.3% (95% CI: 24.7-73.9). Across settings, prevalence of physically inactive persons was significantly higher among urban dwellers (56.8%, 35.3-78.4) compared to rural dwellers (18.9%, 11.9-49.8). Among persons aged 20-79 years, the total number of physically inactive persons increased from 14.4 million to 48.6 million between 1995 and 2020, equivalent to a 240% increase over the 25-year period. CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive and robust strategy that addresses occupational policies, town planning, awareness and information, and sociocultural and contextual issues is crucial to improving physical activity levels in Nigeria.

Estimating the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria in 2020: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Targeted public health response to obesity in Nigeria is relatively low due to limited epidemiologic understanding. We aimed to estimate nationwide and sub-national prevalence of overweight and obesity in the adult Nigerian population. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, and Africa Journals Online were systematically searched for relevant epidemiologic studies in Nigeria published on or after 01 January 1990. We assessed quality of studies and conducted a random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude prevalence rates. Using a meta-regression model, we estimated the number of overweight and obese persons in Nigeria in the year 2020. RESULTS: From 35 studies (n = 52,816), the pooled crude prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in Nigeria were 25.0% (95% confidence interval, CI: 20.4-29.6) and 14.3% (95% CI: 12.0-15.5), respectively. The prevalence in women was higher compared to men at 25.5% (95% CI: 17.1-34.0) versus 25.2% (95% CI: 18.0-32.4) for overweight, and 19.8% (95% CI: 3.9-25.6) versus 12.9% (95% CI: 9.1-16.7) for obesity, respectively. The pooled mean body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference were 25.6 kg/m2 and 86.5 cm, respectively. We estimated that there were 21 million and 12 million overweight and obese persons in the Nigerian population aged 15 years or more in 2020, accounting for an age-adjusted prevalence of 20.3% and 11.6%, respectively. The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were consistently higher among urban dwellers (27.2% and 14.4%) compared to rural dwellers (16.4% and 12.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a high prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria. This is marked in urban Nigeria and among women, which may in part be due to widespread sedentary lifestyles and a surge in processed food outlets, largely reflective of a trend across many African settings.KEY MESSAGESAbout 12 million persons in Nigeria were estimated to be obese in 2020, with prevalence considerably higher among women. Nutritional and epidemiological transitions driven by demographic changes, rising income, urbanization, unhealthy lifestyles, and consumption of highly processed diets appear to be driving an obesity epidemic in the country.

Prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in Nigeria in 1995 and 2020: A systematic analysis of current evidence.

Improved understanding of the current burden of hypertension, including awareness, treatment, and control, is needed to guide relevant preventative measures in Nigeria. A systematic search of studies on the epidemiology of hypertension in Nigeria, published on or after January 1990, was conducted. The authors employed random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude hypertension prevalence, and awareness, treatment, and control rates. Using a meta-regression model, overall hypertension cases in Nigeria in 1995 and 2020 were estimated. Fifty-three studies (n = 78 949) met our selection criteria. Estimated crude prevalence of pre-hypertension (120-139/80-89 mmHg) in Nigeria was 30.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.0%-39.7%), and the crude prevalence of hypertension (≥140/90 mmHg) was 30.6% (95% CI: 27.3%-34.0%). When adjusted for age, study period, and sample, absolute cases of hypertension increased by 540% among individuals aged ≥20 years from approximately 4.3 million individuals in 1995 (age-adjusted prevalence 8.6%, 95% CI: 6.5-10.7) to 27.5 million individuals with hypertension in 2020 (age-adjusted prevalence 32.5%, 95% CI: 29.8-35.3). The age-adjusted prevalence was only significantly higher among men in 1995, with the gap between both sexes considerably narrowed in 2020. Only 29.0% of cases (95% CI: 19.7-38.3) were aware of their hypertension, 12.0% (95% CI: 2.7-21.2) were on treatment, and 2.8% (95% CI: 0.1-5.7) had at-goal blood pressure in 2020. Our study suggests that hypertension prevalence has substantially increased in Nigeria over the last two decades. Although more persons are aware of their hypertension status, clinical treatment and control rates, however, remain low. These estimates are relevant for clinical care, population, and policy response in Nigeria and across Africa.

Current prevalence pattern of tobacco smoking in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: National smoking cessation strategies in Nigeria are hindered by lack of up-to-date epidemiologic data. We aimed to estimate prevalence of tobacco smoking in Nigeria to guide relevant interventions. METHODS: We conducted systematic search of publicly available evidence from 1990 through 2018. A random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression epidemiologic model were employed to determine prevalence and number of smokers in Nigeria in 1995 and 2015. RESULTS: Across 64 studies (n = 54,755), the pooled crude prevalence of current smokers in Nigeria was 10.4% (9.0-11.7) and 17.7% (15.2-20.2) for ever smokers. This was higher among men compared to women in both groups. There was considerable variation across geopolitical zones, ranging from 5.4% (North-west) to 32.1% (North-east) for current smokers, and 10.5% (South-east) to 43.6% (North-east) for ever smokers. Urban and rural dwellers had relatively similar rates of current smokers (10.7 and 9.1%), and ever smokers (18.1 and 17.0%). Estimated median age at initiation of smoking was 16.8 years (IQR: 13.5-18.0). From 1995 to 2015, we estimated an increase in number of current smokers from 8 to 11 million (or a decline from 13 to 10.6% of the population). The pooled mean cigarettes consumption per person per day was 10.1 (6.1-14.2), accounting for 110 million cigarettes per day and over 40 billion cigarettes consumed in Nigeria in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: While the prevalence of smokers may be declining in Nigeria, one out of ten Nigerians still smokes daily. There is need for comprehensive measures and strict anti-tobacco laws targeting tobacco production and marketing.

Estimating morbidity due to stroke in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The response to stroke in Nigeria is impaired by inadequate epidemiologic information. We sought to collate available evidence and estimate the incidence of stroke and prevalence of stroke survivors in Nigeria. METHODS: Using random effects meta-analysis, we pooled nationwide and regional incidence and prevalence of stroke from the estimates reported in each study. RESULTS: Eleven studies met our selection criteria. The pooled crude incidence of stroke in Nigeria was 26.0 (12.8-39.0) /100,000 person-years, with this higher among men at 34.1 (9.7-58.4) /100,000, compared to women at 21.2 (7.4-35.0) /100,000. The pooled crude prevalence of stroke survivors in Nigeria was 6.7 (5.8-7.7) /1000 population, with this also higher among men at 6.4 (5.1-7.6) /1000, compared to women at 4.4 (3.4-5.5) /1000. In the period 2000-2009, the incidence of stroke in Nigeria was 24.3 (95% CI: 11.9-36.8) per 100,000, with this increasing to 27.4 (95% CI: 2.2-52.7) per 100,000 from 2010 upwards. The prevalence of stroke survivors increased minimally from 6.0 (95% CI: 4.6-7.5) per 1000 to 7.5 (95% CI: 5.8-9.1) per 1000 over the same period. The prevalence of stroke survivors was highest in the South-south region at 13.4 (9.1-17.8) /100,000 and among rural dwellers at 10.8 (7.5-14.1) /100,000. CONCLUSION: Although study period does not appear to contribute substantially to variations in stroke morbidity in Nigeria, an increasing number of new cases compared to survivors may be due in part to limited door-door surveys, or possibly reflects an increasing mortality from stroke in the country.

Epidemiology of harmful use of alcohol in Nigeria: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, has reported relatively high levels of alcohol misuse, yet limited resources to guide effective population-wide response. There is a need to integrate existing empirical information in order to increase the power and precision of estimating epidemiological evidence necessary for informing policies and developing prevention programs. Objectives: We aimed to estimate nationwide and zonal prevalence of harmful use of alcohol in Nigeria to inform public health policy and planning. Methods: Epidemiologic reports on alcohol use in Nigeria from 1990 through 2018 were systematically searched and abstracted. We employed random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression model to determine the number of harmful alcohol users. Results: 35 studies (n = 37,576 Nigerians) were identified. Pooled crude prevalence of harmful use of alcohol was 34.3% (95% CI: 28.6-40.1); twice as high among men (43.9%, 31.1-56.8) compared to women (23.9%, 16.4-31.4). Harmful alcohol use was higher in rural settings (40.1%, 24.2-56.1) compared to urban settings (31.2%, 22.9-39.6). The number of harmful alcohol users aged ≥15 years increased from 24 to 34 million from 1995 to 2015. However, actual age-adjusted prevalence of harmful use of alcohol in Nigeria decreased from 38.5% to 32.6% over the twenty-year period. Conclusions: While the prevalence of the total population that drinks harmfully appears to be dropping, absolute number of individuals that would be classified as harmful drinkers is increasing. This finding highlights the complexity of identifying and advocating for substance abuse policies in rapidly changing demographic settings common in Africa, Asia, and other developing countries.

Association between HIV-1 subtype and drug resistance in Nigerian infants.

Background: Many lines of evidence point to HIV-1 subtype-specific differences in the development of drug resistance mutations. While variation between subtype C and others has been extensively explored, there has been less emphasis on subtypes common to West Africa. We examined a previously described national survey of pretreatment drug resistance in HIV-1-infected Nigerian children aged <18 months, to explore the association between subtypes and patterns of resistance. Methods: Five hundred and forty-nine dried blood spots, from 15 early infant diagnostic facilities in Nigeria, were amplified and HIV-1 polymerase was sequenced. Four hundred and twenty-four were analysed for surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs). Associations between subtype and SDRMs were evaluated by Fisher's exact test and logistic regression analysis, controlling for geographical region and exposure. Results: Using the sub-subtypes of HIV-1 G defined by Delatorre et al. (PLoS One 2014. 9: e98908) the most common subtypes were CRF02_AG (174, 41.0%), GWA-I (128, 30.2%), GWA-II (24, 5.7%), GCA (11, 2.6%), A (21, 5.0%) and CRF06_cpx (18, 4.2%). One hundred and ninety infants (44.8%) had ≥1 NNRTI mutation, 92 infants (21.7%) had ≥1 NRTI mutation and 6 infants (1.4%) had ≥1 PI mutation. By logistic regression, 67N was more common in GWA-II/GCA than CRF02_AG (OR 12.0, P = 0.006), as was 70R (OR 23.1, P = 0.007), 184I/V (OR 2.92, P = 0.020), the presence of ≥1 thymidine analogue mutation (TAM) (OR 3.87, P = 0.014), ≥1 type 2 TAM (OR 7.61, P = 0.001) and ≥1 NRTI mutation (OR 3.26, P = 0.005). Conclusions: This dataset reveals differences among SDRMs by subtype; in particular, between the GWA-II and GCA subclades, compared with CRF02_AG and GWA-I.

Private sector malaria RDT initiative in Nigeria: lessons from an end-of-project stakeholder engagement meeting.

The malaria rapid diagnosis testing (RDT) landscape is rapidly evolving in health care delivery in Nigeria with many stakeholders playing or having potential for critical roles. A recent UNITAID grant supported a pilot project on the deployment of quality-assured RDTs among formal and informal private service outlets in three states in Nigeria. This paper describes findings from a series of stakeholder engagement meetings held at the conclusion of the project. The agreed meeting structure was a combination of plenary presentations, structured facilitated discussions, and nominal group techniques to achieve consensus. Rapporteurs recorded the meeting proceeding and summaries of the major areas of discussion and consensus points through a retrospective thematic analysis of the submitted meeting reports. Key findings indicate that private providers were confident in the use of RDTs for malaria diagnosis and believed it has improved the quality of their services. However, concerns were raised about continued access to quality-assured RDT kits. Going forward, stakeholders recommended increasing client-driven demand, and continuous training and supervision of providers through integration with existing monitoring and supervision mechanisms.

High Prevalence of HIV Drug Resistance Among Newly Diagnosed Infants Aged <18 Months: Results From a Nationwide Surveillance in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends protease-inhibitor-based first-line regimen in infants because of risk of drug resistance from failed prophylaxis used in prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). However, cost and logistics impede implementation in sub-Saharan Africa, and >75% of children still receive nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen (NNRTI) used in PMTCT. METHODS: We assessed the national pretreatment drug resistance prevalence of HIV-infected children aged <18 months in Nigeria, using WHO-recommended HIV drug resistance surveillance protocol. We used remnant dried blood spots collected between June 2014 and July 2015 from 15 early infant diagnosis facilities spread across all the 6 geopolitical regions of Nigeria. Sampling was through a probability proportional-to-size approach. HIV drug resistance was determined by population-based sequencing. RESULTS: Overall, in 48% of infants (205 of 430) drug resistance mutations (DRM) were detected, conferring resistance to predominantly NNRTIs (45%). NRTI and multiclass NRTI/NNRTI resistance were present at 22% and 20%, respectively, while resistance to protease inhibitors was at 2%. Among 204 infants with exposure to drugs for PMTCT, 57% had DRMs, conferring NNRTI resistance in 54% and multiclass NRTI/NNRTI resistance in 29%. DRMs were also detected in 34% of 132 PMTCT unexposed infants. CONCLUSION: A high frequency of PDR, mainly NNRTI-associated, was observed in a nationwide surveillance among newly diagnosed HIV-infected children in Nigeria. PDR prevalence was equally high in PMTCT-unexposed infants. Our results support the use of protease inhibitor-based first-line regimens in HIV-infected young children regardless of PMTCT history and underscore the need to accelerate implementation of the newly disseminated guideline in Nigeria.

The status of HIV testing and counseling in Kenya: results from a nationally representative population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: HIV testing and counseling (HTC) is essential for successful HIV prevention and treatment programs. The national target for HTC is 80% of the adult population in Kenya. Population-based data to measure progress towards this HTC target are needed to assess the country's changing needs for HIV prevention and treatment. METHODS: In 2012-2013, we conducted a national HIV survey among Kenyans aged 18 months to 64 years. Respondents aged 15-64 years were administered a questionnaire that collected information on demographics, HIV testing behavior, and self-reported HIV status. Blood samples were collected for HIV testing in a central laboratory. Participants were offered home-based testing and counseling to learn their HIV status in the home and point-of-care CD4 testing if they tested HIV-positive. RESULTS: Of 13,720 adults who were interviewed, 71.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 70.2 to 73.1] had been tested for HIV. Among those, 56.1% (95% CI: 52.8 to 59.4) had been tested in the past year, 69.4% (95% CI: 68.0 to 70.8) had been tested more than once, and 37.2% (95% CI: 35.7 to 38.8) had been tested with a partner. Fifty-three percent (95% CI: 47.6 to 58.7) of HIV-infected persons were unaware of their infection. Overall 9874 (72.0%) of participants accepted home-based HIV testing and counseling; 4.1% (95% CI: 3.3 to 4.9) tested HIV-positive, and of those, 42.5% (95% CI 31.4 to 53.6) were in need of immediate treatment for their HIV infection but not receiving it. CONCLUSIONS: HIV testing rates have nearly reached the national target for HTC in Kenya. However, knowledge of HIV status among HIV-infected persons remains low. HTC needs to be expanded to reach more men and couples, and strategies are needed to increase repeat testing for persons at risk for HIV infection.

Monitoring the response to antiretroviral therapy in resource-poor settings: the Malawi model.

With assistance from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM), Malawi is scaling-up the delivery of antiretroviral (ARV) therapy to HIV-positive eligible patients. The country has developed National ARV Treatment Guidelines, which emphasize a structured and standardized approach for all aspects of ARV delivery, including monitoring and evaluation. Using the successful DOTS model adapted by National TB Control Programmes throughout the world, Malawi has developed a system of quarterly ARV cohort and cumulative ARV quarterly analyses. Thyolo district, in the southern region of Malawi, has been using this system since April 2003. This paper describes the standardized ARV treatment regimens and the treatment outcomes used in Thyolo to assess the impact of treatment, the registration and monitoring systems and how the cohort analyses are carried out. Data are presented for case registration and treatment outcome for the first quarterly cohort (April to June) and the combined cohorts (April to June and July to September). Such quarterly analyses may be useful for districts and Ministries of Health in assessing ARV delivery, although the burden of work involved in calculating the numbers may become large once ARV delivery systems have been established for several years.