ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a major public health problem in Malawi and the greatest load of mortality and morbidity occurs in children five years and under. However, there is no information yet regarding trends and predictions of malaria incidence in children five years and under at district hospital level, particularly at Nsanje district hospital. AIM: Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the trends of malaria morbidity and mortality in order to design appropriate interventions on the best approach to contain the disease in the near future. METHODOLOGY: Trend analysis of malaria morbidity and mortality together with time series analysis using the SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model was used to predict malaria incidence in Nsanje district. RESULTS: The SARIMA model used malaria cases from 2015 to 2019 and created the best model to forecast the malaria cases in Nsanje from 2020 to 2022. An SARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0,1,1)12 was suitable for forecasting the incidence of malaria for Nsanje. CONCLUSION: The mortality and morbidity trend showed that malaria cases were growing at a fluctuating rate at Nsanje district hospital. The relative errors between the actual values and predicted values indicated that the predicted values matched the actual values well. Therefore, the model proved that it was adequate to forecast monthly malaria cases and it had a good fit, hence, was appropriate for this study.
Subject(s)
Malaria , Models, Statistical , Child , Forecasting , Humans , Incidence , Malaria/epidemiology , Malawi/epidemiology , SeasonsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel disease that has spread to nearly every country worldwide. Medical laboratory professionals are key in the fight against COVID-19 as they provide confirmatory diagnosis for subsequent management and mitigation of the disease. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the knowledge, attitude and practices of COVID-19 and their predictors among medical laboratory personnel in Zambia. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among medical laboratory professionals in Zambia from 10 to 29 June 2020. Data were collected using Google Forms and exported to Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 23 for statistical analysis. Independent predictors of COVID-19 knowledge and practices were determined. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) are reported. RESULTS: A total of 208 medical laboratory professionals, 58.2% male, participated in the study. The majority of respondents had good knowledge (84.1%) and practice (75.0%) regarding COVID-19. Predictors of good knowledge included having a bachelor's degree (AOR: 5.0, CI: 1.13-22.19) and having prior COVID-19 related training (AOR: 8.83, CI: 2.03-38.44). Predictors of good practice included having a master's or Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) qualification (AOR: 5.23, CI: 1.15-23.87) and having prior COVID-19 related training (AOR: 14.01, CI: 6.47-30.36). CONCLUSION: Our findings revealed that medical laboratory professionals in Zambia have good knowledge regarding COVID-19. There is need for continuous professional development to ensure that medical laboratory professionals are well informed and aware of best practices to aid in curbing the pandemic.
