Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, Japan.

We developed a near-real-time estimation method for temporal changes in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions from China for 3 months [January, February, March (JFM)] based on atmospheric CO2 and CH4 observations on Hateruma Island (HAT, 24.06° N, 123.81° E) and Yonaguni Island (YON, 24.47° N, 123.01° E), Japan. These two remote islands are in the downwind region of continental East Asia during winter because of the East Asian monsoon. Previous studies have revealed that monthly averages of synoptic-scale variability ratios of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 (ΔCO2/ΔCH4) observed at HAT and YON in JFM are sensitive to changes in continental emissions. From the analysis based on an atmospheric transport model with all components of CO2 and CH4 fluxes, we found that the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratio was linearly related to the FFCO2/CH4 emission ratio in China because calculating the variability ratio canceled out the transport influences. Using the simulated linear relationship, we converted the observed ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios into FFCO2/CH4 emission ratios in China. The change rates of the emission ratios for 2020-2022 were calculated relative to those for the preceding 9-year period (2011-2019), during which relatively stable ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios were observed. These changes in the emission ratios can be read as FFCO2 emission changes under the assumption of no interannual variations in CH4 emissions and biospheric CO2 fluxes for JFM. The resulting average changes in the FFCO2 emissions in January, February, and March 2020 were 17 ± 8%, - 36 ± 7%, and - 12 ± 8%, respectively, (- 10 ± 9% for JFM overall) relative to 2011-2019. These results were generally consistent with previous estimates. The emission changes for January, February, and March were 18 ± 8%, - 2 ± 10%, and 29 ± 12%, respectively, in 2021 (15 ± 10% for JFM overall) and 20 ± 9%, - 3 ± 10%, and - 10 ± 9%, respectively, in 2022 (2 ± 9% for JFM overall). These results suggest that the FFCO2 emissions from China rebounded to the normal level or set a new high record in early 2021 after a reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown. In addition, the estimated reduction in March 2022 might be attributed to the influence of a new wave of COVID-19 infections in Shanghai. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40645-023-00542-6.

Detection of fossil-fuel CO2 plummet in China due to COVID-19 by observation at Hateruma.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused drastic reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but due to its large atmospheric reservoir and long lifetime, no detectable signal has been observed in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Using the variabilities in CO2 (ΔCO2) and methane (ΔCH4) observed at Hateruma Island, Japan during 1997-2020, we show a traceable CO2 emission reduction in China during February-March 2020. The monitoring station at Hateruma Island observes the outflow of Chinese emissions during winter and spring. A systematic increase in the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratio, governed by synoptic wind variability, well corroborated the increase in China's fossil-fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions during 1997-2019. However, the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios showed significant decreases of 29 ± 11 and 16 ± 11 mol mol-1 in February and March 2020, respectively, relative to the 2011-2019 average of 131 ± 11 mol mol-1. By projecting these observed ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios on transport model simulations, we estimated reductions of 32 ± 12% and 19 ± 15% in the FFCO2 emissions in China for February and March 2020, respectively, compared to the expected emissions. Our data are consistent with the abrupt decrease in the economic activity in February, a slight recovery in March, and return to normal in April, which was calculated based on the COVID-19 lockdowns and mobility restriction datasets.

Emissions of methane from offshore oil and gas platforms in Southeast Asia.

Methane is a substantial contributor to climate change. It also contributes to maintaining the background levels of tropospheric ozone. Among a variety of CH4 sources, current estimates suggest that CH4 emissions from oil and gas processes account for approximately 20% of worldwide anthropogenic emissions. Here, we report on observational evidence of CH4 emissions from offshore oil and gas platforms in Southeast Asia, detected by a highly time-resolved spectroscopic monitoring technique deployed onboard cargo ships of opportunity. We often encountered CH4 plumes originating from operational flaring/venting and fugitive emissions off the coast of the Malay Peninsula and Borneo. Using night-light imagery from satellites, we discovered more offshore platforms in this region than are accounted for in the emission inventory. Our results demonstrate that current knowledge regarding CH4 emissions from offshore platforms in Southeast Asia has considerable uncertainty and therefore, emission inventories used for modeling and assessment need to be re-examined.

Large emissions of perfluorocarbons in East Asia deduced from continuous atmospheric measurements.

The atmospheric mixing ratios of perfluorocarbons (PFCs), extremely potent greenhouse gases, have been continuously measured at two Japanese stations (Cape Ochiishi and Hateruma Island) since 2006, to infer their global and regional emissions. The baseline mixing ratios of the measured C(2)-C(4) PFCs [PFC-116 (C(2)F(6)), PFC-218 (C(3)F(8)), and PFC-318 (c-C(4)F(8))] showed slight annual increases of 1%-3%. Enhanced mixing ratios above baseline were occasionally observed at both sites in air masses that had passed over metropolitan regions in East Asia, suggesting high PFC emissions from those regions. We applied transport models to these pollution events and an inversion technique to estimate national emissions. The results suggest that, among the studied regions (China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Taiwan), China was the largest PFC emitter, accounting for more than half of the regional emissions, followed by Japan. The estimated total emissions of each PFC from East Asia were 0.86 Gg yr(-1) for PFC-116, 0.31 Gg yr(-1) for PFC-218, and 0.56 Gg yr(-1) for PFC-318. They contributed greatly to global emissions as derived from the annual increases in the baseline mixing ratios, accounting for more than 75% of global PFC-218 and PFC-318 emissions and for approximately 40% of global PFC-116 emissions.

How well do we know VPDB? Variability of delta13C and delta18O in CO2 generated from NBS19-calcite.

In order to generate a local daughter scale from the material defining the international delta13C and delta18O stable isotope ratio scales (NBS19-calcite),1,2 the carbon and oxygen must be liberated to the gas phase, usually as CO2, using acid digestion of the calcite with H3PO4. It is during this conversion step that systematic errors can occur, giving rise to commonly observed discrepancies in isotopic measurements between different stable isotope laboratories. Scale consistency is of particular importance for air-CO2 isotope records where very small differences in isotopic composition have to be reliably compared between different laboratories and quantified over long time periods.3 The information is vital for estimating carbon budgets on regional and global scales and for understanding their variability under the conditions of climate change. Starting from this requirement a number of CO2 preparations from NBS19 were made at Environment Canada (EC) and analyzed in our laboratories together with Narcis II, a set of well-characterized CO2 samples in sealed tubes available from the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES).4,5 Narcis II is very homogeneous in delta13C and delta18O with the isotopic composition close to NBS19-CO2. Among our laboratories the results for delta13C agreed to within +/-0.004 per thousand. The same level of agreement in delta13C was obtained when CO2 was generated from NBS19-calcite using different experimental procedures and conditions in the other two laboratories. For delta18O, the corresponding data were +/-0.011 per thousand when using NBS19-CO2 produced at EC, but discrepancies were enhanced by almost one order of magnitude when NBS19-CO2 was prepared by the other laboratories using slightly different reaction conditions (range=0.13 per thousand).In a second series of experiments, larger amounts of CO2 prepared from NBS19 at the Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC) were analyzed together with Narcis II and then mixed into CO2-free air. The resulting artificial air samples then were measured by the same three laboratories for the stable isotopic composition of CO2 using locally established extraction and evaluation procedures. Comparison of the results with the prior CO2 values and between the laboratories revealed additional systematic differences owing to the local CO2 extraction processes and standardization procedures. For delta13C the results showed a narrow range of discrepancies of about 0.02 per thousand; for delta18O cumulative disagreements in the range of 0.1 per thousand were observed. From these results the following conclusions are inferred: NBS19-CO2 is a reliable primary anchor to the VPDB delta13C scale. Although prepared by different methods an accuracy of better than +/-0.003 per thousand has been reached. This applies to sample amounts of 5 mg calcite or more.NBS19-CO2 can be used as a general anchor to the VPDB delta18O scale only for accuracy requirements of +/-0.1 per thousand. For a higher scale resolution additional agreements regarding details of the acid digestion reaction will have to be worked out and agreed upon.Narcis II-CO2 comprises an ideal set of test samples for the VPDB scale. The delta13C value is +1.923+/-0.003 per thousand (combined uncertainty); delta18O is between -2.50 and -2.65 per thousand versus VPDB-CO2, with most of the variation in this figure depending on details of the NBS19-CO2 preparation used for the calibration. (Ampoule to ampoule homogeneity is better than 0.01 per thousand.)When mixing NBS19-CO2 into artificial air and using this to test performance between laboratories, the delta13C offsets are small with a remaining discrepancy of only 0.02 per thousand. For delta18O, systematic disagreements are considerably larger than those found for the pure CO2 comparison. Further experimental clarification is required.Artificial air samples such as NBS19-CO2 in air can be used as reliable anchors to create a unified stable isotope scale between different laboratories. An adjustment of local scales based on these air standards appears to be necessary for improving data comparability.

Field survey of trans-boundary air pollution with high time resolution at coastal sites on the Sea of Japan during winter in Japan.

An intensive field survey, with 6-h measurement intervals, of concentrations of chemical species in particulate matter and gaseous compounds was carried out at coastal sites on the Sea of Japan during winter. The concentration variation of SO(2)(g) and HNO(3)(g) were well correlated, whereas the NH(3)(g) concentration variation had no correlation with those of SO(2)(g) and HNO(3)(g). The NH(4) (+) (p)/non-sea-salt- (nss-)SO(4) (2 -)(p) ratio in particulate matter was mainly affected by the location of the sampling site. One or more concentration peaks of nss-Ca(2 +) for survey period were observed. Backward trajectories analyses for the highest nss-Ca(2 +) concentration peaks showed some inconsistency in pathways. We consider that insufficient mixing of the atmosphere and/or insufficient time for the transported air pollutants to react with those discharged locally are the most likely explanations for the discrepancies between the measured products [HNO(3)][NH(3)] and the calculated values.