Estimating Legacy Soil Phosphorus Impacts on Phosphorus Loss in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Agricultural nutrient management is an issue due to P loss from fields and water quality degradation. This is especially true in watersheds where a history of P application in excess of crop needs has resulted in elevated soil P (legacy P). As practices and policy are implemented in such watersheds to reduce P loss, information is needed on time required to draw down soil P and how much P loss can be reduced by drawdown. We used the Annual P Loss Estimator (APLE) model to simulate soil P drawdown in Maryland, and to estimate P loss at a statewide scale associated with different combinations of soil P and P transport. Simulated APLE soil P drawdown compared well with measured rates from three field sites, showing that APLE can reliably simulate P dynamics for Maryland soils. Statewide APLE simulations of average annual P loss from cropland (0.84 kg ha) also compared well with estimates from the Chesapeake Bay Model (0.87 kg ha). The APLE results suggest that it is realistic to expect that a concerted effort to reduce high P soils throughout the state can reduce P loss to the Chesapeake Bay by 40%. However, P loss reduction would be achieved gradually over several decades, since soil P drawdown is very slow. Combining soil P drawdown with aggressive conservation efforts to reduce P transport in erosion could achieve a 62% reduction in state-level P loss. This 62% reduction could be considered a maximum amount possible that is still compatible with modern agriculture.

Applicability of models to predict phosphorus losses in drained fields: a review.

Most phosphorus (P) modeling studies of water quality have focused on surface runoff loses. However, a growing number of experimental studies have shown that P losses can occur in drainage water from artificially drained fields. In this review, we assess the applicability of nine models to predict this type of P loss. A model of P movement in artificially drained systems will likely need to account for the partitioning of water and P into runoff, macropore flow, and matrix flow. Within the soil profile, sorption and desorption of dissolved P and filtering of particulate P will be important. Eight models are reviewed (ADAPT, APEX, DRAINMOD, HSPF, HYDRUS, ICECREAMDB, PLEASE, and SWAT) along with P Indexes. Few of the models are designed to address P loss in drainage waters. Although the SWAT model has been used extensively for modeling P loss in runoff and includes tile drain flow, P losses are not simulated in tile drain flow. ADAPT, HSPF, and most P Indexes do not simulate flow to tiles or drains. DRAINMOD simulates drains but does not simulate P. The ICECREAMDB model from Sweden is an exception in that it is designed specifically for P losses in drainage water. This model seems to be a promising, parsimonious approach in simulating critical processes, but it needs to be tested. Field experiments using a nested, paired research design are needed to improve P models for artificially drained fields. Regardless of the model used, it is imperative that uncertainty in model predictions be assessed.