Political Attitudes and Disease Threat: Regional Pathogen Stress Is Associated With Conservative Ideology Only for Older Individuals.

What environmental factors are associated with individual differences in political ideology, and do such associations change over time? We examine whether reductions in pathogen prevalence in U.S. states over the past 60 years are associated with reduced associations between parasite stress and conservatism. We report a positive association between infection levels and conservative ideology in the United States during the 1960s and 1970s. However, this correlation reduces from the 1980s onwards. These results suggest that the ecological influence of infectious diseases may be larger for older people who grew up (or whose parents grew up) during earlier time periods. We test this hypothesis by analyzing the political affiliation of 45,000 Facebook users, and find a positive association between self-reported political affiliation and regional pathogen stress for older (>40 years) but not younger individuals. It is concluded that the influence of environmental pathogen stress on ideology may have reduced over time.

A query theory account of the attraction effect.

We provide novel support for Query Theory, a reason-based decision framework, extending it to multialternative choices and applying it to the classic phenomenon known as the attraction effect. In Experiment 1 (N = 261), we generalised the two key metrics used in Query Theory from binary to multialternative choices and found that reasons supporting the target option were generated earlier and in greater quantity than those supporting the competitor, as predicted by the theory. In Experiment 2 (N = 703), we investigated the causal relationships between reasoning and choices by exogenously manipulating the order in which participants generated their reasons. As predicted, the size of the attraction effect was a function of this query order manipulation. We also introduced a bidirectional reason coding protocol to measure the valence of reasons, which confirmed support for Query Theory. We suggest the Query Theory framework can be useful for studying the high-level deliberation processes behind multialternative choices.

Acceptance of mixed gambles is sensitive to the range of gains and losses experienced, and estimates of lambda (λ) are not a reliable measure of loss aversion: Reply to André and de Langhe (2020).

Walasek and Stewart (2015) demonstrated that loss aversion estimated from fitting accept-reject choice data from a set of 50-50 gambles can be made to disappear or even reverse by manipulating the range of gains and losses experienced in different conditions. André and de Langhe (2020) critique this conclusion because in estimating loss aversion on different choice sets, Walasek and Stewart (2015) have violated measurement invariance. They show, and we agree, that when loss aversion is estimated on the choices common to all conditions, there is no difference in prospect theory's λ parameter. But there are two problems here. First, while there are no differences in λs across conditions, there are very large differences in the proportion of the common gambles that are accepted, which André and de Langhe chose not to report. These choice proportion differences are consistent with decision by sampling (but are inconsistent with prospect theory or any of the alternative mechanisms proposed by André & de Langhe, 2020). Second, we demonstrate a much more general problem related to the issue of measurement invariance: that λ estimated from the accept-reject choices is extremely unreliable and does not generalize even across random splits within large, balanced choice sets. It is therefore not possible to determine whether differences in choice proportions are due to loss aversion or to a bias in accepting or rejecting mixed gambles. We conclude that context has large effects on the acceptance of mixed gambles and that it is futile to estimate λ from accept-reject choices. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

The role of alcohol in the link between national football (soccer) tournaments and domestic abuse - Evidence from England.

Domestic abuse is increasingly recognised as a serious public health concern worldwide. Previous research has suggested a link between national football (soccer) tournaments and domestic abuse. While hypothesized to be a significant factor, the role alcohol plays in this relationship has not yet been explored quantitatively. In this study, using 10 years' worth of crime data (from 2010 to 2019) from the second largest police force in England (West Midlands Police), we explored the effect of England draws, losses, and wins in national football tournaments on the number of alcohol and non-alcohol-related domestic abuse cases reported to the police. Results from a series of negative binomial regression analyses show that the number of reported alcohol-related domestic abuse cases increases by 47%, 95% confidence interval [26%-71%], following an England football victory. This effect is limited to alcohol-related cases. The estimate translates into a 0.53, 95% CI [0.3-0.8], increase in the daily rate of alcohol-related cases per 100,000 individuals. The England win effect survives various robustness checks (including the re-analysis of a dataset from another geographical area in England), and its time course is strongly consistent with a causal link between England's football victories and an increase in alcohol-related domestic abuse. We also found a comparable increase in the number of other (not classified as domestic abuse) alcohol-related violent crimes on England win days. Further research is required to understand the exact causal pathway between national football tournaments, alcohol consumption, and violent behaviours in domestic settings.

Understanding the composite dimensions of the EQ-5D: An experimental approach.

The EQ-5D(-5L) includes two composite dimensions: "Pain or Discomfort" (P/D) and "Anxiety or Depression" (A/D), which involves an inherent ambiguity. Little is known about how these composite dimensions are interpreted across contexts where (i) individuals self-report their own health; and (ii) individuals value stylised health states. We detail the nature of the ambiguity and present experimental evidence from two large online surveys (n = 1007 and n = 1415). In one survey, individuals reported both their current health and their health at the time they felt the worst because of their health. In the other, they valued stylised EQ-5D states using Discrete Choice Experiments with duration as an attribute. In both surveys, participants were randomised into treatments in which the presentation of one of the composite dimensions was altered, or a control. Our results suggest (1) In self-report, use of the composite dimensions differs across the dimensions, with P/D used mainly to report Pain, but A/D used mainly to mean the more severe component of Anxiety and Depression. (2) In valuation, Pain was perceived to be worse than Discomfort at the same level, and Depression was perceived to be worse than Anxiety at the same level. (3) In valuation, the composite dimension P/D was interpreted to mean Pain, whilst the composite dimension A/D was interpreted to lie between Anxiety and Depression. We conclude that care must be taken when interpreting responses to existing health (or wellbeing) descriptive systems that rely on composite dimensions, and that caution should be applied when designing new ones.

Individual-Level Analyses of the Impact of Parasite Stress on Personality: Reduced Openness Only for Older Individuals.

The parasite stress hypothesis predicts that individuals living in regions with higher infectious disease rates will show lower openness, agreeableness, and extraversion, but higher conscientiousness. This article, using data from more than 250,000 U.S. Facebook users, reports tests of these predictions at the level of both U.S. states and individuals and evaluates criticisms of previous findings. State-level results for agreeableness and conscientiousness are consistent with previously reported cross-national findings, but others (a significant positive correlation with extraversion and no correlation with openness) are not. However, effects of parasite stress on conscientiousness and agreeableness are not found when analyses account for the data's hierarchical structure and include controls. We find that only openness is robustly related to parasite stress in these analyses, and we also find a significant interaction with age: Older, but not younger, inhabitants of areas of high parasite stress show lower openness. Interpretations of the findings are discussed.

Similarity and decision time in preferential choice.

Choice option similarity is a key contextual variable in multiattribute choice. Based on theories of preference accumulation, we predicted that decision times would be longer when the available choice options were similar compared with when they were dissimilar, controlling for the relative desirabilities of the options. We tested for the relationship between similarity and decision time in an experiment involving incentivised binary choices between items of equivalent desirability and found that our predictions were confirmed. Our results show how the effects of contextual factors on key decision variables can be accurately predicted by existing computational theories of decision-making.

Implications of Visual Attention Phenomena for Models of Preferential Choice.

We use computational modeling to examine the ability of evidence accumulation models to produce the reaction time (RT) distributions and attentional biases found in behavioral and eye-tracking research. We focus on simulating RTs and attention in binary choice with particular emphasis on whether different models can predict the late onset bias (LOB), commonly found in eye movements during choice (sometimes called the gaze cascade). The first finding is that this bias is predicted by models even when attention is entirely random and independent of the choice process. This shows that the LOB is not evidence of a feedback loop between evidence accumulation and attention. Second, we examine models with a relative evidence decision rule and an absolute evidence rule. In the relative models a decision is made once the difference in evidence accumulated for 2 items reaches a threshold. In the absolute models, a decision is made once 1 item accumulates a certain amount of evidence, independently of how much is accumulated for a competitor. Our core result is simple-the existence of the late onset gaze bias to the option ultimately chosen, together with a positively skewed RT distribution means that the stopping rule must be relative not absolute. A large scale grid search of parameter space shows that absolute threshold models struggle to predict these phenomena even when incorporating evidence decay and assumptions of either mutual inhibition or feedforward inhibition.

Eye Movements in Strategic Choice.

In risky and other multiattribute choices, the process of choosing is well described by random walk or drift diffusion models in which evidence is accumulated over time to threshold. In strategic choices, level-k and cognitive hierarchy models have been offered as accounts of the choice process, in which people simulate the choice processes of their opponents or partners. We recorded the eye movements in 2 × 2 symmetric games including dominance-solvable games like prisoner's dilemma and asymmetric coordination games like stag hunt and hawk-dove. The evidence was most consistent with the accumulation of payoff differences over time: we found longer duration choices with more fixations when payoffs differences were more finely balanced, an emerging bias to gaze more at the payoffs for the action ultimately chosen, and that a simple count of transitions between payoffs-whether or not the comparison is strategically informative-was strongly associated with the final choice. The accumulator models do account for these strategic choice process measures, but the level-k and cognitive hierarchy models do not. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The dynamics of deferred decision.

Decision makers are often unable to choose between the options that they are offered. In these settings they typically defer their decision, that is, delay the decision to a later point in time or avoid the decision altogether. In this paper, we outline eight behavioral findings regarding the causes and consequences of choice deferral that cognitive theories of decision making should be able to capture. We show that these findings can be accounted for by a deferral-based time limit applied to existing sequential sampling models of preferential choice. Our approach to modeling deferral as a time limit in a sequential sampling model also makes a number of novel predictions regarding the interactions between choice probabilities, deferral probabilities, and decision times, and we confirm these predictions in an experiment. Choice deferral is a key feature of everyday decision making, and our paper illustrates how established theoretical approaches can be used to understand the cognitive underpinnings of this important behavioral phenomenon.

Responses to irrational actions in action observation and mentalising networks of the human brain.

By observing other people, we can often infer goals and motivations behind their actions. This study examines the role of the action observation network (AON) and the mentalising network (MZN) in the perception of rational and irrational actions. Past studies in this area report mixed results, so the present paper uses new stimuli which precisely control motion path, the social form of the actor and the rationality of the action. A cluster in medial prefrontal cortex and a large cluster in the right inferior parietal lobule extending to the temporoparietal junction distinguished observation of irrational from rational actions. Activity within the temporoparietal region also correlated on a trial-by-trial basis with each participant's judgement of action rationality. These findings demonstrate that observation of another person performing an irrational action engages both action observation and mentalising networks. Our results advance current theories of action comprehension and the roles of action observation and mentalising networks in this process.

Value representations by rank order in a distributed network of varying context dependency.

We report the results of a human fMRI experiment investigating the influence of context upon value judgement. Trials were separated into high and low value blocks such that it is possible to investigate the effect of a change in surrounding trials upon the encoding of financial value. The ventral striatum was dependent upon "local context", with its activity representing the current stimulus' relative value compared only to items in the current block. Conversely the ventral medial Pre-Frontal Cortex and Anterior Cingulate Cortex respond independently of block but also do not represent the absolute values of stimuli. Our use of stimuli values with a non-linear distribution allow us to identify the pattern as representing rank order. This has wide reaching implications for research on neuroeconomics, decision making and reward representation, showing that financial value is not explicitly represented within the brain.

Does the Butcher-on-the-Bus Phenomenon Require a Dual-Process Explanation? A Signal Detection Analysis.

The butcher-on-the-bus is a rhetorical device or hypothetical phenomenon that is often used to illustrate how recognition decisions can be based on different memory processes (Mandler, 1980). The phenomenon describes a scenario in which a person is recognized but the recognition is accompanied by a sense of familiarity or knowing characterized by an absence of contextual details such as the person's identity. We report two recognition memory experiments that use signal detection analyses to determine whether this phenomenon is evidence for a recollection plus familiarity model of recognition or is better explained by a univariate signal detection model. We conclude that there is an interaction between confidence estimates and remember-know judgments which is not explained fully by either single-process signal detection or traditional dual-process models.