Molecular epidemiology of Campylobacter jejuni in a geographically isolated country with a uniquely structured poultry industry.

In New Zealand the number of campylobacteriosis notifications increased markedly between 2000 and 2007. Notably, this country's poultry supply is different than that of many developed countries as the fresh and frozen poultry available at retail are exclusively of domestic origin. To examine the possible link between human cases and poultry, a sentinel surveillance site was established to study the molecular epidemiology of Campylobacter jejuni over a 3-year period from 2005 to 2008 using multilocus sequence typing. Studies showed that 60.1 to 81.4% of retail poultry carcasses from the major suppliers were contaminated with C. jejuni. Differences were detected in the probability and level of contamination and the relative frequency of genotypes for individual poultry suppliers and humans. Some carcasses were contaminated with isolates belonging to more than one sequence type (ST), and there was evidence of both ubiquitous and supplier-associated strains, an epidemiological pattern not recognized yet in other countries. The common poultry STs were also common in human clinical cases, providing evidence that poultry is a major contributor to human infection. Both internationally rare genotypes, such as ST-3069 and ST-474, and common genotypes, such as ST-45 and ST-48, were identified in this study. The dominant human sequence type in New Zealand, ST-474, was found almost exclusively in isolates from one poultry supplier, which provided evidence that C. jejuni has a distinctive molecular epidemiology in this country. These results may be due in part to New Zealand's geographical isolation and its uniquely structured poultry industry.

Assigning the source of human campylobacteriosis in New Zealand: a comparative genetic and epidemiological approach.

Integrated surveillance of infectious multi-source diseases using a combination of epidemiology, ecology, genetics and evolution can provide a valuable risk-based approach for the control of important human pathogens. This includes a better understanding of transmission routes and the impact of human activities on the emergence of zoonoses. Until recently New Zealand had extraordinarily high and increasing rates of notified human campylobacteriosis, and our limited understanding of the source of these infections was hindering efforts to control this disease. Genetic and epidemiological modeling of a 3-year dataset comprising multilocus sequence typed isolates from human clinical cases, coupled with concurrent data on food and environmental sources, enabled us to estimate the relative importance of different sources of human disease. Our studies provided evidence that poultry was the leading cause of human campylobacteriosis in New Zealand, causing an estimated 58-76% of cases with widely varying contributions by individual poultry suppliers. These findings influenced national policy and, after the implementation of poultry industry-specific interventions, a dramatic decline in human notified cases was observed in 2008. The comparative-modeling and molecular sentinel surveillance approach proposed in this study provides new opportunities for the management of zoonotic diseases.

Source attribution of food-borne zoonoses in New Zealand: a modified Hald model.

A Bayesian approach was developed by Hald et al.((1)) to estimate the contribution of different food sources to the burden of human salmonellosis in Denmark. This article describes the development of several modifications that can be used to adapt the model to different countries and pathogens. Our modified Hald model has several advantages over the original approach, which include the introduction of uncertainty in the estimates of source prevalence and an improved strategy for identifiability. We have applied our modified model to the two major food-borne zoonoses in New Zealand, namely, campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis. Major challenges were the data quality for salmonellosis and the inclusion of environmental sources of campylobacteriosis. We conclude that by modifying the Hald model we have improved its identifiability, made it more applicable to countries with less intensive surveillance, and feasible for other pathogens, in particular with respect to the inclusion of nonfood sources. The wider application and better understanding of this approach is of particular importance due to the value of the model for decision making and risk management.

[Evaluation of diagnostic tests in the absence of a gold standard using an Anaplasma marginale field data set]. / Testevaluation ohne Goldstandard am Beispiel eines Anaplasma marginale-Felddatensatzes.

The evaluation of newly developed diagnostic tests (tests) commonly involves the comparison of the test outcomes (pos/neg.) of a sample of animals to those of a reference test (gold standard) in order to derive sensitivity and specificity estimates. Often, however, new tests have to be evaluated against an imperfect reference test since a true gold standard test is either too expensive or too costly to apply. This results in bias in the test characteristic estimates. To solve this problem, latent class and Bayesian models can be used to estimate sensitivity and specificity when evaluating a diagnostic test in the absence of a gold standard. They require at least two imperfect reference tests applied to all individuals in the study. In our approach we used a two-test two-population scenario. Both the gold standard and these modelling approaches rely on various assumptions. When violated, biased results will be obtained. The analysis of field data from an Anaplasma marginale outbreak in cattle in Switzerland with four diagnostic procedures (detection of the agent, serology, PCR and hematocrit measurements) was used as a practical example to demonstrate and critically discuss the approaches taken. In this relatively small data set (n = 275) the estimates for the test characteristics obtained by the different methods were quite similar. Overall, the bias in the point estimates depended mainly on the chosen estimation approach. All tests showed a non-negligible correlation mainly in the test sensitivities. This emphasizes the importance of taking into account test dependence even if it seems not biologically plausible at first thought.

Systematic review of measures and their concepts used in published studies focusing on rehabilitation in the acute hospital and in early post-acute rehabilitation facilities.

PURPOSE: To identify outcome measures cited in published studies focusing on rehabilitation in the acute hospital and in early post-acute rehabilitation facilities, and to identify and quantify the concepts contained in these measures using the ICF as a reference. METHODS: Electronic searches of Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Pedro and the Cochrane Library from 1997 to March 2002 were carried out. In a first step, abstracts of the retrieved studies were checked and data on the outcome measures and certain characteristics of the included studies were extracted. In a second step, the items of the questionnaires and their underlying concepts were specified. These concepts were then linked to ICF categories using standardized linkage rules. RESULTS: From the 1,657 abstracts retrieved, 259 studies met the inclusion criteria. In a second step, 277 formal assessment instruments and 351 single clinical measures were retrieved. A total of 1,353 concepts were extracted from the clinical and technical measures. Ninety-six percent of these concepts could be linked to ICF categories. Fifty-six second-level ICF categories representing the concepts contained in the measures. Twenty-six (46%) of the 56 categories belong to the component Body Functions, five (9%) to the component Body Structures, and 25 (45%) to the component Activities and Participation. CONCLUSIONS: The ICF provides a valuable reference to identify and quantify the concepts of outcome measures focusing on rehabilitation in the acute hospital and in early post-acute rehabilitation facilities. Our findings indicate a need to define and to agree on 'what should be measured' in rehabilitation care to allow for a comparison of patient populations.