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1.
bioRxiv ; 2024 Mar 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38559071

ABSTRACT

Despite the widespread use of the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) framework in psychiatry and neuroscience, recent studies suggest that the RDoC is insufficiently specific or excessively broad relative to the underlying brain circuitry it seeks to elucidate. To address these concerns of the RDoC framework, our study employed a latent variable approach, specifically utilizing bifactor analysis. We examined a total of 84 whole-brain task-based fMRI (tfMRI) activation maps from 19 studies with a total of 6,192 participants. Within this set of 84 maps, a curated subset of 37 maps with a balanced representation of RDoC domains constituted the training set of our analysis, and the remaining held-out maps formed the internal validation set. External validation was performed with 36 peak coordinate activation maps from Neurosynth, using terms of RDoC constructs as seeds for topic meta-analysis. Our results indicate that a bifactor model with a task-general domain and splitting the cognitive systems domain into sub-domains better fits the current corpus of tfMRI data than the current RDoC framework. Our data-driven validation supports revising the RDoC framework to accurately reflect underlying brain circuitry.

2.
Sci Data ; 3: 160110, 2016 12 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27922632

ABSTRACT

This data descriptor outlines a shared neuroimaging dataset from the UCLA Consortium for Neuropsychiatric Phenomics, which focused on understanding the dimensional structure of memory and cognitive control (response inhibition) functions in both healthy individuals (130 subjects) and individuals with neuropsychiatric disorders including schizophrenia (50 subjects), bipolar disorder (49 subjects), and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (43 subjects). The dataset includes an extensive set of task-based fMRI assessments, resting fMRI, structural MRI, and high angular resolution diffusion MRI. The dataset is shared through the OpenfMRI project, and is formatted according to the Brain Imaging Data Structure (BIDS) standard.


Subject(s)
Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity/physiopathology , Bipolar Disorder/physiopathology , Cognition/physiology , Inhibition, Psychological , Memory/physiology , Schizophrenia/physiopathology , Adult , Female , Functional Neuroimaging , Healthy Volunteers , Humans , Information Dissemination , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Male , Middle Aged , Task Performance and Analysis , Young Adult
3.
J Virol ; 85(23): 12742-9, 2011 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21937642

ABSTRACT

Equine influenza virus is a major respiratory pathogen in horses, and outbreaks of disease often lead to substantial disruption to and economic losses for equestrian industries. The hemagglutinin (HA) protein is of key importance in the control of equine influenza because HA is the primary target of the protective immune response and the main component of currently licensed influenza vaccines. However, the influenza virus HA protein changes over time, a process called antigenic drift, and vaccine strains must be updated to remain effective. Antigenic drift is assessed primarily by the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. We have generated HI assay data for equine influenza A (H3N8) viruses isolated between 1968 and 2007 and have used antigenic cartography to quantify antigenic differences among the isolates. The antigenic evolution of equine influenza viruses during this period was clustered: from 1968 to 1988, all isolates formed a single antigenic cluster, which then split into two cocirculating clusters in 1989, and then a third cocirculating cluster appeared in 2003. Viruses from all three clusters were isolated in 2007. In one of the three clusters, we show evidence of antigenic drift away from the vaccine strain over time. We determined that a single amino acid substitution was likely responsible for the antigenic differences among clusters.


Subject(s)
Evolution, Molecular , Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus/immunology , Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype/genetics , Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype/immunology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/virology , Amino Acid Substitution , Animals , Antigens, Viral/classification , Antigens, Viral/immunology , Blotting, Western , Cells, Cultured , Dogs , Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests , Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus/genetics , Hemagglutinins/immunology , Hemagglutinins/metabolism , Horses , Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype/isolation & purification , Kidney/cytology , Kidney/metabolism , Kidney/virology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/genetics , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/immunology , Phylogeny , RNA, Messenger/genetics , RNA, Viral/genetics , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , Time Factors
4.
J R Soc Interface ; 7(42): 67-79, 2010 Jan 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19364721

ABSTRACT

We present a metapopulation model of the spread of equine influenza among thoroughbred horses parametrized with data from a 2003 outbreak in Newmarket, UK. The number of horses initially susceptible is derived from a threshold theorem and a published statistical model. Two simulated likelihood-based methods are used to find the within- and between-yard transmissions using both exponential and empirical latent and infectious periods. We demonstrate that the 2003 outbreak was largely locally driven and use the parametrized model to address important questions of control. The chance of a large epidemic is shown to be largely dependent on the size of the index yard. The impact of poor responders to vaccination is estimated under different scenarios. A small proportion of poor responders strongly influences the efficiency of vaccine policies, which increases risk further when the vaccine and infecting strains differ following antigenic drift. Finally, the use of vaccinating in the face of an outbreak is evaluated at a global and individual management group level. The benefits for an individual horse trainer are found to be substantial, although this is influenced by the behaviour of other trainers.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data , Disease Outbreaks/veterinary , Horse Diseases/epidemiology , Models, Biological , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/veterinary , Proportional Hazards Models , Animals , Computer Simulation , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Horse Diseases/prevention & control , Horses , Incidence , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/prevention & control , Population Dynamics , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Factors , United Kingdom/epidemiology
5.
Rev Sci Tech ; 26(1): 69-90, 2007 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17633294

ABSTRACT

Antigenic diversity among ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses occurs as a result of rapid mutation during replication and recombination/reassortment between genetic material of related strains during co-infections. Variants which have a selective advantage in terms of ability to spread or to avoid host immunity become established within populations. Examples of antigenically diverse viruses include influenza, foot and mouth disease (FMD) and bluetongue (BT). Effective vaccination against such viruses requires surveillance programmes to monitor circulating serotypes and their evolution to ensure that vaccine strains match field viruses. A formal vaccine strain selection scheme for equine influenza has been established under the auspices of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) based on an international surveillance programme. A regulatory framework has been put in place to allow rapid updating of vaccine strains withoutthe need to provide full registration data for licensing the updated vaccine. While there is extensive surveillance of FMD worldwide and antigenic and genetic characterisation of isolates, there is no formal vaccine strain selection system. A coordinated international effort has been initiated to agree harmonised approaches to virus characterisation which is aimed at providing the basis for an internationally agreed vaccine matching system for FMD supported by the OIE. The emergence and spread of BT in Europe have resulted in an intensification of vaccine evaluation in terms of safety and efficacy, particularly cross-protection within and between serotypes. The most important requirement for producing vaccines against viruses displaying antigenic diversity is a method of measuring antigenic distances between strains and developing an understanding of how these distances relate to cross-protection. Antigenic cartography, a new computational method of quantifying antigenic distances between strains has been applied to human and equine influenza to examine the significance of viral evolution in relation to vaccine strains. This method is highly applicable to other important pathogens displaying antigenic diversity, such as FMD.


Subject(s)
Antigenic Variation , Vaccination/veterinary , Viral Vaccines/standards , Viruses/genetics , Viruses/immunology , Animals , Genetic Drift , Influenza Vaccines , RNA Viruses/genetics , RNA Viruses/immunology , RNA Viruses/pathogenicity , Vaccination/standards , Virus Diseases/prevention & control , Virus Diseases/veterinary , Virus Diseases/virology , Viruses/pathogenicity
6.
Vet Immunol Immunopathol ; 111(1-2): 47-57, 2006 May 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16580075

ABSTRACT

In this study, experimental canarypox virus (ALVAC) and plasmid DNA recombinant vaccines expressing the gB, gC and gD glycoproteins of EHV-1 were assessed for their ability to protect conventional ponies against a respiratory challenge with EHV-1. In addition, potential means of enhancing serological responses in horses to ALVAC and DNA vaccination were explored. These included co-administration of the antigen with conventional adjuvants, complexation with DMRIE-DOPE and co-expression of the antigen along with equine GM-CSF. Groups of EHV primed ponies were vaccinated twice intra-muscularly with one dose of the appropriate test vaccine at an interval of 5 weeks. Two to 3 weeks after the second vaccination, ponies were infected intra-nasally with the virulent Ab4 strain of EHV-1 after which they were observed clinically and sampled for virological investigations. The results demonstrated that DNA and ALVAC vaccination markedly reduced virus excretion after challenge in terms of duration and magnitude, but failed to protect against cell-associated viremia. Noteworthy was the almost complete absence of virus excretion in the group of ponies vaccinated with ALVAC-EHV in the presence of Carbopol adjuvant or DNA plasmid formulated with aluminium phosphate. The administration of the DNA vaccine in the presence of GM-CSF and formulated in DMRIE-DOPE and of the ALVAC vaccine in the presence of Carbopol adjuvant significantly improved virus neutralising antibody responses to EHV-1. These findings indicate that DNA and ALVAC vaccination is a promising approach for the immunological control of EHV-1 infection, but that more research is needed to identify the immunodominant protective antigens of EHV-1 and their interaction with the equine immune system.


Subject(s)
Herpesviridae Infections/veterinary , Herpesvirus 1, Equid/immunology , Herpesvirus Vaccines/therapeutic use , Horse Diseases/prevention & control , Horse Diseases/virology , Vaccination/veterinary , Vaccines, DNA/therapeutic use , Viral Vaccines/therapeutic use , Adjuvants, Immunologic/pharmacology , Animals , Antibodies, Viral/blood , Female , Herpesviridae Infections/immunology , Herpesviridae Infections/prevention & control , Herpesviridae Infections/virology , Herpesvirus 1, Equid/genetics , Herpesvirus Vaccines/genetics , Herpesvirus Vaccines/immunology , Horse Diseases/immunology , Horses , Male , Neutralization Tests/veterinary , Polymerase Chain Reaction/veterinary , Statistics, Nonparametric , Vaccination/methods , Vaccines, DNA/immunology , Viral Envelope Proteins/genetics , Viral Envelope Proteins/immunology , Viral Vaccines/genetics , Viral Vaccines/immunology
7.
J Virol ; 80(8): 4047-60, 2006 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16571821

ABSTRACT

Equid herpesvirus 1 (EHV-1) can cause a wide spectrum of diseases ranging from inapparent respiratory infection to the induction of abortion and, in extreme cases, neurological disease resulting in paralysis and ultimately death. It has been suggested that distinct strains of EHV-1 that differ in pathogenic capacity circulate in the field. In order to investigate this hypothesis, it was necessary to identify genetic markers that allow subgroups of related strains to be identified. We have determined all of the genetic differences between a neuropathogenic strain (Ab4) and a nonneuropathogenic strain (V592) of EHV-1 and developed PCR/sequencing procedures enabling differentiation of EHV-1 strains circulating in the field. The results indicate the occurrence of several major genetic subgroups of EHV-1 among isolates recovered from outbreaks over the course of 30 years, consistent with the proposal that distinct strains of EHV-1 circulate in the field. Moreover, there is evidence that certain strain groups are geographically restricted, being recovered predominantly from outbreaks occurring in either North America or Europe. Significantly, variation of a single amino acid of the DNA polymerase is strongly associated with neurological versus nonneurological disease outbreaks. Strikingly, this variant amino acid occurs at a highly conserved position for herpesvirus DNA polymerases, suggesting an important functional role.


Subject(s)
DNA-Directed DNA Polymerase/genetics , Herpesvirus 1, Equid/pathogenicity , Point Mutation , Amino Acid Sequence , Animals , Base Sequence , DNA-Directed DNA Polymerase/chemistry , Disease Outbreaks , Herpesvirus 1, Equid/classification , Herpesvirus 1, Equid/genetics , Horse Diseases/epidemiology , Horses , Molecular Sequence Data , Open Reading Frames , Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide
8.
Vet Rec ; 158(6): 185-92, 2006 Feb 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16474051

ABSTRACT

Between March and May 2003, equine influenza virus infection was confirmed as the cause of clinical respiratory disease among both vaccinated and unvaccinated horses of different breeds and types in at least 12 locations in the UK. In the largest outbreak, 21 thoroughbred training yards in Newmarket, with more than 1300 racehorses, were affected, with the horses showing signs of coughing and nasal discharge during a period of nine weeks. Many of the infected horses had been vaccinated during the previous three months with a vaccine that contained representatives from both the European (A/eq/Newmarket/2/93) and American (A/eq/Newmarket/1/93) H3NN8 influenza virus lineages. Antigenic and genetic characterisation of the viruses from Newmarket and elsewhere indicated that they were all closely related to representatives of a sublineage of American viruses, for example, Kentucky/5/02, the first time that this sublineage had been isolated in the uk. In the recently vaccinated racehorses in Newmarket the single radial haemolysis antibody levels in acute sera appeared to be adequate, and there did not appear to be significant antigenic differences between the infecting virus and A/eq/Newmarket/1/93, the representative of the American lineage virus present in the most widely used vaccine, to explain the vaccine failure. However, there was evidence for significantly fewer infections among two-year-old horses than older animals, despite their having similar high levels of antibody, consistent with a qualitative rather than a quantitative difference in the immunity conveyed by the vaccination.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks/veterinary , Horse Diseases/epidemiology , Horse Diseases/virology , Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/veterinary , Amino Acid Sequence , Animals , Antigens, Viral/analysis , Antigens, Viral/chemistry , Antigens, Viral/genetics , Chick Embryo , Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay/veterinary , Ferrets , Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests/veterinary , Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus/chemistry , Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus/genetics , Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus/immunology , Horse Diseases/diagnosis , Horses , Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype/classification , Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype/immunology , Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype/isolation & purification , Molecular Sequence Data , Nucleoproteins/analysis , Nucleoproteins/immunology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/diagnosis , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/virology , Phylogeny , Polymerase Chain Reaction , Sequence Alignment/veterinary , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Vaccination/veterinary
9.
Equine Vet J ; 37(3): 236-42, 2005 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15892233

ABSTRACT

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Respiratory disease is important in young Thoroughbred racehorses, but the variation in the rates of occurrence between different ages and training groups has not been characterised. OBJECTIVES: To determine the rates of respiratory disease, particularly inflammatory airway disease (IAD), as well as evidence of infection, and their variation between age and group. METHODS: Horses were examined monthly in 7 British flat training yards over a 3 year period. IAD was defined as increased mucus in the trachea with increased proportions of neutrophils in tracheal wash samples. Frequencies of disease outcomes were estimated from the data. RESULTS: The prevalence of IAD was 13.8% and the incidence was 8.9 cases/100 horses/month. Rates varied with training and age groups, decreasing in older animals. The prevalence of nasal discharge (ND) was 4.1%. Rates of bacterial isolation were more common than viral infections. The incidence and prevalence of several bacterial species decreased with age. CONCLUSIONS: IAD and ND were common in young racehorses, varying significantly between training groups and decreasing with age, consistent with infection playing a role in aetiology. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: The high prevalence of IAD in 2-year-old horses in Britain suggests that routine endoscopic examination may be helpful in providing early diagnosis and appropriate therapy. The transmission of bacteria and viruses within and between groups of young animals and the role of infection, stable environment and factors inherent to each horse, including their genetic make-up, in the multifactorial aetiology of the disease all merit further study.


Subject(s)
Bacterial Infections/veterinary , Horse Diseases/epidemiology , Physical Conditioning, Animal , Respiratory Tract Diseases/veterinary , Virus Diseases/veterinary , Age Factors , Animals , Bacterial Infections/epidemiology , Female , Horse Diseases/microbiology , Horse Diseases/virology , Horses , Incidence , Inflammation/epidemiology , Inflammation/microbiology , Inflammation/veterinary , Inflammation/virology , Male , Mucus/cytology , Mucus/metabolism , Neutrophils/cytology , Prevalence , Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology , Respiratory Tract Diseases/microbiology , Respiratory Tract Diseases/virology , Risk Factors , Sports , Trachea/metabolism , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Virus Diseases/epidemiology
10.
J Clin Microbiol ; 43(1): 120-6, 2005 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15634959

ABSTRACT

Respiratory disease is important in horses, particularly in young Thoroughbred racehorses, and inflammation that is detected in the trachea and bronchi (termed inflammatory airway disease [IAD]) is more significant in this population in terms of impact and frequency than other presentations of respiratory disease. IAD, which is characterized by neutrophilic inflammation, mild clinical signs, and accumulation of mucus in the trachea, may be multifactorial, possibly involving infections and environmental and immunological factors, and its etiology remains unclear. This 3-year longitudinal study of young Thoroughbred racehorses was undertaken to characterize the associations of IAD and nasal discharge with viral and bacterial infections. IAD was statistically associated with tracheal infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae (capsule type 3), Streptococcus zooepidemicus, Actinobacillus spp., and Mycoplasma equirhinis and equine herpesvirus 1 and 4 infections, after adjustment for variation between training yards, seasons, and age groups. The association with S. pneumoniae and S. zooepidemicus was independent of prior viral infection and, critically, was dependent on the numbers of organisms isolated. S. pneumoniae was significant only in horses that were 2 years old or younger. The prevalence and incidence of IAD, S. zooepidemicus, and S. pneumoniae decreased in parallel with age, consistent with increased disease resistance, perhaps by the acquisition of immunity. The study provided evidence for S. zooepidemicus and S. pneumoniae playing an important etiological role in the pathogenesis of IAD in young horses.


Subject(s)
Bacterial Infections/veterinary , Respiratory Tract Infections/veterinary , Virus Diseases/veterinary , Animals , Bacterial Infections/epidemiology , Bacterial Infections/microbiology , Horse Diseases/epidemiology , Horse Diseases/microbiology , Horse Diseases/virology , Horses , Inflammation , Respiratory Tract Infections/epidemiology , Respiratory Tract Infections/microbiology , Respiratory Tract Infections/virology , Trachea/microbiology , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Virus Diseases/epidemiology , Virus Diseases/virology
11.
Proc Biol Sci ; 271(1548): 1547-55, 2004 Aug 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15306299

ABSTRACT

We assess the effects of strain heterology (strains that are immunologically similar but not identical) on equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Using data relating to individual animals, for both homologous and heterologous vaccinees, we estimate distributions for the latent and infectious periods, quantify the risk of becoming infected in terms of the quantity of cross-reactive antibodies to a key surface protein of the virus (haemagglutinin) and estimate the probability of excreting virus (i.e. becoming infectious) given that infection has occurred. The data suggest that the infectious period, the risk of becoming infected (for a given vaccine-induced level of cross-reactive antibodies) and the probability of excreting virus are increased for heterologously vaccinated animals when compared with homologously vaccinated animals. The data are used to parameterize a modified susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered/resistant (SEIR) model, which shows that these relatively small differences combine to have a large effect at the population level, where populations of heterologous vaccinees face a significantly increased risk of an epidemic occurring.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/immunology , Antigens, Heterophile/immunology , Horse Diseases/virology , Influenza A virus/immunology , Models, Immunological , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/veterinary , Vaccination/veterinary , Animals , Computer Simulation , Cross Reactions/immunology , Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus/immunology , Horse Diseases/epidemiology , Horse Diseases/immunology , Horse Diseases/prevention & control , Horses , Monte Carlo Method , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/immunology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/prevention & control , Risk Assessment , Species Specificity
14.
Equine Vet J ; 35(5): 458-62, 2003 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12875323

ABSTRACT

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Vaccination and challenge studies in ponies are the most relevant experimental system for predicting whether strains included in equine influenza vaccines are relevant, but they are difficult to perform. OBJECTIVES: In order to investigate the feasibility of using a small animal model, results of a cross-protection study in hamsters were compared with those from a previous pony challenge experiment. METHODS: Animals were immunised with inactivated vaccines containing one of 4 strains of equine influenza A H3N8 subtype virus isolated over a 26 year period (1963 to 1989), then challenged with a 1989 strain. RESULTS: Although there was no significant difference in titres of excreted virus between groups of vaccinated ponies, hamsters immunised with heterologous strains had significantly higher virus titres in the lung than hamsters vaccinated with the homologous strain. In both ponies and hamsters, the number of animals excreting virus was greater the earlier the isolation date of the vaccine strain, although this was only significant in the hamster study. CONCLUSIONS: Despite differences, the overall conclusion of both the pony and hamster models was that heterologous vaccines may be less effective than homologous vaccines at preventing virus excretion. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Further validation is required, but the hamster model shows potential for preliminary assessment of the effects of antigenic drift on vaccine efficacy.


Subject(s)
Antigenic Variation , Horse Diseases/prevention & control , Influenza A virus/immunology , Influenza Vaccines/immunology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/veterinary , Animals , Antibodies, Viral/blood , Cricetinae , Cross Reactions , Horses , Lung/virology , Mesocricetus , Models, Animal , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/prevention & control , Random Allocation , Vaccines, Attenuated/immunology , Virus Shedding
15.
Res Vet Sci ; 75(1): 83-6, 2003 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12801466

ABSTRACT

Basic in vitro characteristics of high and low virulence isolates of equine herpesviruses-1 and -4 were investigated with particular reference made to the Ab4 and V592 isolates of EHV-1 as both have distinct endotheliotropism and clinical outcomes in pony challenge studies. Additionally, some EHV-4 isolates that showed variations in clinical outcome were included in some experiments. The aim of the study was to identify an in vitro characteristic that would differentiate strains of known virulence. Such a system could then be applied to vaccine and virulence studies as an effective screening tool. Viral growth kinetics in a variety of cell culture systems, plaque size, ability to replicate in fetal endothelium in organ culture, and sensitivity to acyclovir were compared. No reliable marker system that differentiated between higher and lower virulence isolates of EHV-1 and EHV-4 was identified.


Subject(s)
Herpesviridae Infections/veterinary , Herpesvirus 1, Equid/pathogenicity , Herpesvirus 4, Equid/pathogenicity , Horse Diseases/virology , Animals , Endothelium/pathology , Endothelium/virology , Herpesviridae Infections/pathology , Herpesviridae Infections/virology , Herpesvirus 1, Equid/growth & development , Herpesvirus 1, Equid/isolation & purification , Herpesvirus 4, Equid/growth & development , Herpesvirus 4, Equid/isolation & purification , Horses , In Vitro Techniques , Viral Plaque Assay , Virulence
16.
Vaccine ; 21(21-22): 2862-70, 2003 Jun 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12798628

ABSTRACT

A stochastic model of equine influenza (EI) is constructed to assess the risk of an outbreak in a Thoroughbred population at a typical flat race training yard. The model is parameterised using data from equine challenge experiments conducted by the Animal Health Trust (relating to the latent and infectious period of animals) and also published data on previous epidemics (to estimate the transmission rate for equine influenza). Using 89 ponies, an empirical relationship between pre-challenge antibody and the probability of becoming infectious is established using logistic regression. Changes in antibody level over time are quantified using published and unpublished studies comprising 618 ponies and horses. A plausible Thoroughbred population is examined over the course of a year and the model is used to assess the risk of an outbreak of EI in the yard under the current minimum vaccination policy in the UK. The model is adapted to consider an alternative vaccination programme where the frequency of vaccination in older horses (2-year-olds and upwards) is increased. Model results show that this practical alternative would offer a significant increase in protection. Spread of infection between yards is also considered to ascertain the risk of secondary outbreaks.


Subject(s)
Horse Diseases/prevention & control , Influenza Vaccines/immunology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/veterinary , Vaccination/veterinary , Age Factors , Animals , Disease Outbreaks/veterinary , Horse Diseases/epidemiology , Horse Diseases/transmission , Horses , Influenza Vaccines/administration & dosage , Models, Biological , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/immunology , Physical Conditioning, Animal , Time Factors
18.
Thorax ; 58(2): 143-8, 2003 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12554898

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: High resolution computed tomography (HRCT) has an important diagnostic role in idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP). We hypothesised that the HRCT appearance would have an impact on survival in patients with IIP. METHODS: HRCT scans from patients with histological usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP; n=73) or histological non-specific interstitial pneumonia (NSIP; n=23) were characterised as definite UIP, probable UIP, indeterminate, probable NSIP, or definite NSIP. Cox regression analysis examined the relationships between histopathological and radiological diagnoses and mortality, controlling for patient age, sex, and smoking status. RESULTS: All 27 patients with definite or probable UIP on HRCT had histological UIP; 18 of 44 patients with probable or definite NSIP on HRCT had histological NSIP. Patients with HRCT diagnosed definite or probable UIP had a shorter survival than those with indeterminate CT (hazards ratio (HR) 2.43, 95% CI 1.06 to 5.58; median survival 2.08 v 5.76 years) or HRCT diagnosed definite or probable NSIP (HR 3.47, 95% CI 1.58 to 7.63; median survival 2.08 v 5.81 years). Patients with histological UIP with no HRCT diagnosis of probable or definite UIP fared better than patients with histological UIP and an HRCT diagnosis of definite or probable UIP (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.98; median survival 5.76 v 2.08 years) and worse than those with a histological diagnosis of NSIP (HR 5.42, 95% CI 1.25 to 23.5; median survival 5.76 v >9 years). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a typical HRCT appearance of UIP experience the highest mortality. A surgical lung biopsy is indicated for patients without an HRCT appearance of UIP to differentiate between histological UIP and NSIP.


Subject(s)
Lung Diseases, Interstitial/diagnostic imaging , Lung Diseases, Interstitial/pathology , Algorithms , Analysis of Variance , Biopsy/methods , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Lung Diseases, Interstitial/mortality , Male , Middle Aged , Regression Analysis , Risk Factors , Survival Analysis , Tomography, X-Ray Computed/methods , Vital Capacity/physiology
19.
Epidemiol Infect ; 128(3): 491-502, 2002 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12113495

ABSTRACT

This paper demonstrates that a simple stochastic model can capture the features of an epidemic of equine influenza in unvaccinated horses. When the model is modified to consider vaccinated horses, we find that vaccination dramatically reduces the incidence and size of epidemics. Although occasional larger outbreaks can still occur, these are exceptional. We then look at the effects of vaccination on a yard of horses, and in particular at the relationship between pre-challenge antibody level and quantity of virus shed when challenged with the virus. While on average, a high antibody level implies that less virus will be shed during the infectious period, we identify a high degree of heterogeneity in the response of horses with similar pre-challenge antibody levels. We develop a modified model that incorporates some heterogeneity in levels of infectivity, and compare this with the simpler model.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks/veterinary , Horse Diseases/epidemiology , Influenza A virus/pathogenicity , Models, Theoretical , Vaccination/veterinary , Animals , Antibodies, Viral/analysis , Antigens, Viral/analysis , Horse Diseases/transmission , Horses , Incidence
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