Cool-edge populations of the kelp Ecklonia radiata under global ocean change scenarios: strong sensitivity to ocean warming but little effect of ocean acidification.

Kelp forests are threatened by ocean warming, yet effects of co-occurring drivers such as CO2 are rarely considered when predicting their performance in the future. In Australia, the kelp Ecklonia radiata forms extensive forests across seawater temperatures of approximately 7-26°C. Cool-edge populations are typically considered more thermally tolerant than their warm-edge counterparts but this ignores the possibility of local adaptation. Moreover, it is unknown whether elevated CO2 can mitigate negative effects of warming. To identify whether elevated CO2 could improve thermal performance of a cool-edge population of E. radiata, we constructed thermal performance curves for growth and photosynthesis, under both current and elevated CO2 (approx. 400 and 1000 µatm). We then modelled annual performance under warming scenarios to highlight thermal susceptibility. Elevated CO2 had minimal effect on growth but increased photosynthesis around the thermal optimum. Thermal optima were approximately 16°C for growth and approximately 18°C for photosynthesis, and modelled performance indicated cool-edge populations may be vulnerable in the future. Our findings demonstrate that elevated CO2 is unlikely to offset negative effects of ocean warming on the kelp E. radiata and highlight the potential susceptibility of cool-edge populations to ocean warming.

Adjustments in fatty acid composition is a mechanism that can explain resilience to marine heatwaves and future ocean conditions in the habitat-forming seaweed Phyllospora comosa (Labillardière) C.Agardh.

Marine heatwaves are extreme events that can have profound and lasting impacts on marine species. Field observations have shown seaweeds to be highly susceptible to marine heatwaves, but the physiological drivers of this susceptibility are poorly understood. Furthermore, the effects of marine heatwaves in conjunction with ocean warming and acidification are yet to be investigated. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a laboratory culture experiment in which we tested the growth and physiological responses of Phyllospora comosa juveniles from the southern extent of its range (43-31°S) to marine heatwaves, ocean warming and acidification. We used a 'collapsed factorial design' in which marine heatwaves were superimposed on current (today's pH and temperature) and future (pH and temperature projected by 2100) ocean conditions. Responses were tested both during the heatwaves, and after a 7-day recovery period. Heatwaves reduced net photosynthetic rates in both current and future conditions, while respiration rates were elevated under heatwaves in the current conditions only. Following the recovery period, there was little evidence of heatwaves having lasting negative effects on growth, photosynthesis or respiration. Exposure to heatwaves, future ocean conditions or both caused an increase in the degree of saturation of fatty acids. This adjustment may have counteracted negative effects of elevated temperatures by decreasing membrane fluidity, which increases at higher temperatures. Furthermore, P. comosa appeared to down-regulate the energetically expensive carbon dioxide concentrating mechanism in the future conditions with a reduction in δ13 C values detected in these treatments. Any saved energy arising from this down-regulation was not invested in growth and was likely invested in the adjustment of fatty acid composition. This adjustment is a mechanism by which P. comosa and other seaweeds may tolerate the negative effects of ocean warming and marine heatwaves through benefits arising from ocean acidification.

The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave.

The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively ≥330 times and ≥6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences.