Risk factors for mortality in smear-negative tuberculosis suspects: a cohort study in Harare, Zimbabwe.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate mortality rates and risk factors for death among smear-negative tuberculosis (TB) suspects. DESIGN: Cohort study nested within a cluster-randomised trial of community-based active case finding. Smear-negative TB suspects were followed for 12 months, with home tracing where necessary. We calculated mortality rates and used regression analysis to investigate the relationship between clinical characteristics and death. RESULTS: Between February 2006 and June 2007, 1195 smear-negative TB suspects were followed for 1136.8 person-years. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence was 63.3%. During follow-up, 139 participants died (11.6%) and mortality rates remained high throughout; 119 (16.5%) HIV-positive individuals and 13 (3.1%) HIV-negative individuals died (HR = 5.8, 95%CI 3.3-10.4, P < 0.001). Advanced immunosuppression was the main risk factor for death among HIV-positive participants, with CD4 count < 50 cells/µ l associated with a 13-fold increased risk of death. Antiretroviral treatment (ART) was initiated by only 106 (14.7%), with long delays in accessing care. CONCLUSION: HIV-positive smear-negative TB suspects are at high and sustained risk of death. Current guidelines for the management of HIV-infected TB suspects are limited, and this study adds to evidence that specific policies are required to promote earlier HIV and TB diagnosis and reduce delays in ART initiation.

Prevalent infectious tuberculosis in Harare, Zimbabwe: burden, risk factors and implications for control.

SETTING: Harare's high density suburbs. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the burden, duration and risk factors for prevalent tuberculosis (TB) and explore potential control strategies. METHODS: Randomly selected adults had TB culture, symptom screen and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) serology. Prevalent TB was defined as undiagnosed or still culture-positive. Notification data and HIV prevalence in TB out-patients were used to estimate duration of infectiousness (prevalence/estimated incidence). RESULTS: Among 10 092 participants, 40 (0.40%, 95%CI 0.28-0.54) had prevalent smear-positive TB. HIV (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.1, 95%CI 1.6-6.3, population attributable fraction [PAF] 33%), male sex (aOR 3.1, 95%CI 1.5-6.4, PAF 40%), and overcrowding (PAF 34%) were significant risk factors, with past TB treatment significant for HIV-negative participants only (PAF 7%). Recent household TB contact was not significant (PAF 10%). HIV prevalence was 21.1%; 76.9% of HIV-positive participants were previously untested. Duration of infectiousness was at least 18 weeks in HIV-positive and approximately 1 year in HIV-negative patients. CONCLUSIONS: Overcrowding, male sex and HIV infection were major risk factors for prevalent smear-positive TB. Reducing diagnostic delay may have greater potential to improve the control of prevalent TB than interventions targeted at household contacts, TB treatment outcomes, or TB-HIV interventions under current levels of awareness of HIV status.

Diagnostic accuracy of commercial urinary lipoarabinomannan detection in African tuberculosis suspects and patients.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a commercially available antigen capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) based on detecting lipoarabinomannan (LAM) in urine for the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB). DESIGN: Consenting TB suspects and registering TB patients prospectively recruited from three hospitals were asked for two sputum specimens for microscopy and culture, urine for LAM testing and blood for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing, with radiological and clinical follow-up for 2 months. RESULTS: Of 427 participants, complete data were available from 397 (307 adult and 23 adolescent TB suspects, and 67 registering TB patients). HIV prevalence was 77%. TB was diagnosed in 195 (49%), including 161 culture-positive patients, and confidently excluded in 114 (29%) participants. LAM ELISA sensitivity was 44% (95%CI 36-52) for culture-confirmed TB (52% in smear-positive patients). Specificity was 89% (95%CI 81-94). Sensitivity was significantly higher in HIV-related TB (52%, 95%CI 43-62, P < 0.001) compared to HIV-negative TB (21%, 95%CI 9-37). Sensitivity in smear-negative patients was low (28%, 95%CI 13-43) for combined HIV-positive and -negative patients. CONCLUSION: Our findings confirm greater sensitivity of urine LAM detection for HIV-related TB. However, both sensitivity and specificity were suboptimal, suggesting that this version cannot confirm or exclude TB in either HIV-infected or non-infected patients.

Human immunodeficiency virus, smoking and self-rated health in Harare, Zimbabwe.

SETTING: Twenty-two urban factories in Harare. OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship between the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), smoking and self-rated health in a high HIV prevalence urban workforce. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. RESULTS: Of 7482 employees, 6111 (82%) consented to interview and anonymous HIV serology; 88% were male; median age was 34 years. HIV prevalence was 19%. Current (median 6 cigarettes per day) and former smoking were reported by 17% and 7%, respectively. Smoking (current or former) was more common among HIV-positive (27%) than -negative participants (17%; P < 0.001). Factors significantly associated with being a smoker on multivariate analysis were being HIV-infected (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.4-1.7), older age (P < 0.001), non-Christian (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2-2.2) and manual job (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.6). Women (OR 0.05, 95% CI 0.03-0.11) and the better educated (OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-0.9) were significantly less likely to smoke. HIV-positive smokers had the highest risk of reporting poor health (adjusted OR compared to HIV-negative non-smokers 3.4, 95% CI 2.3-5.0). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking was significantly more common among HIV-positive than -negative employees in this predominantly male workforce. There was evidence of a combined effect on self-rated poor health, a variable shown to be a strong independent predictor of mortality in industrialised countries. Interventions to encourage smoking cessation may be an important component of HIV care in Southern Africa.