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1.
Gesundheitswesen ; 79(8-09): 627-632, 2017 Aug.
Article in German | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26671645

ABSTRACT

Objective: The aim of the study was to compare the satisfaction of patients of a general hospital with a university hospital. A patient satisfaction index was calculated based on the assessed levels of satisfaction. In general, higher satisfaction could lead to increased competitiveness and improved cost efficiency for achieving profitability. Methods: The authors developed and administered a questionnaire on distinct parameters presumed to reflect the quality of the hospital stay to patients of a university hospital (University Hospital of Bonn, UKB, 1 224 beds) and a general hospital (Johanniterkrankenhaus, Bonn, JKH, 364 beds). Data were collected anonymously. Patient satisfaction and the relative importance of each parameter were assessed. The quotient of both parameters yields the patient satisfaction index (PZI). In order to account for possible differences in patient demands, statistical analysis was performed. Results: The demands and wishes, satisfaction and importance of the retrieved parameters did not differ significantly between the patients of the hospitals in any of aspects assessed (information, participation, contact and comfort during the hospital-stay). The study showed that communication and the contact to physicians and nurses was significantly more important for the patients than comfort (each p<0.001). The highest PZI were found in the categories entertainment (UKB 1.02; JKH 1.25) and contact to the nursing personnel (PZI UKB 0.94; PZI JKH 0.96). The standard of medical-technical care (UKB 0.93; JKH 0.95) was also highly ranked by patients of both hospitals. Needs for improvement related especially to the communication of errors (UKB 0.33; JKH 0.31). Discussion: Surveillance of patient wishes and criticism may result in a more patient-oriented care on a daily basis. Scrutinizing the resources employed may lead to more efficient use of resources and personnel and thus help cut costs and improve the attractiveness of hospitals.


Subject(s)
Hospitals, General , Hospitals, University , Patient Satisfaction , Quality of Health Care , Surveys and Questionnaires , Total Quality Management , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Germany , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Young Adult
2.
Transplant Proc ; 43(2): 623-8, 2011 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21440780

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Heart transplantation is optimal treatment for many patients with end-stage heart failure. Current data report 1-year graft survival rates of 85% after transplantation. The success of transplantation in large part is attributable to immunosuppression, including steroids, one of the mainstay agents. Despite its efficacy to treat acute graft rejection, steroids show numerous adverse effects. With newer immunosuppressive agents, steroid withdrawal is possible. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We compared cardiac transplant patients who died versus survived between 2001 and 2006. We obtained Personal, transplant, occurrence of and cause of death data as well as postoperative intervals. Steroid therapy details were gathered, particularly whether the patient had been weaned off these agents. We calculated steroid doses and steroid-free years, as well as the steroid therapy status of posttransplant patients who remained alive in 2006. RESULTS: Fifty cardiac transplant patients died between 2001 and 2006 excluding 6 who had graft failure and 2 who died of multiorgan failure before initial discharge. Of the 42 patient who died, 29 (69%) were on and 13 (31%) had been withdrawn from steroid therapy at time of death. There were 132 posttransplant patients currently alive in April 2006, including 43 (33%) on and 89 (67%) withdrawn from steroids. The percentages of patients who were on versus off steroids were compared for main causes of death. Thirty-eight percent of patients on steroids at the time of death died of graft vasculopathy compared with 46% of patients who had been weaned off steroids. Fifteen percent of deceased patients taking steroids at the time of death died of chronic rejection. DISCUSSION: The current literature focuses on early withdrawal or reduction of steroids or steroid avoidance after organ transplantation. Although steroid avoidance remains controversial, steroid withdrawal has been generally incorporated into immunosuppressive protocols. Early steroid withdrawal has a positive influence on the emergence of de novo osteoporosis and cataracts. The benefits of steroid avoidance versus withdrawal are controversial topics being currently debated.


Subject(s)
Heart Failure/therapy , Heart Transplantation/methods , Steroids/administration & dosage , Data Collection , Female , Graft Rejection , Graft Survival , Humans , Immunosuppression Therapy/methods , Male , Multiple Organ Failure , Retrospective Studies , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome
3.
Clin Exp Dermatol ; 31(3): 354-7, 2006 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16681574

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cardiac transplant recipients have a greatly increased risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer, with a relative risk of up to 108. Skin cancer is more aggressive in transplant patients and results in substantial morbidity and mortality. It is therefore important that these patients understand this risk and take adequate sun-protection measures. AIM: To assess awareness of skin cancer risk and sun protection measures used by cardiac transplant recipients and determine the impact of patient education. METHODS: Using a detailed questionnaire, we surveyed 118 patients attending the cardiac transplant clinic at our centre to quantify knowledge of skin cancer risk (maximum total score 10) and behaviour in the sun (maximum total score 15). Of these patients, 50 were then seen by a dermatologist for education about skin cancer risk, sun protection measures and skin cancer screening. Six months later, we asked them to complete the same questionnaire again. RESULTS: The mean knowledge score was 7.3/10 and the mean behaviour score was 11.2/15. In the group that received education, the mean knowledge score improved from 7.2/10 before the dermatology consultation to 7.8/10 after the consultation (P < 0.03). The mean score for the behaviour questions improved even more, from 11.2/15 before to 13.5/15 after the consultation (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS. This study demonstrates that specialist advice can improve self-reported knowledge of skin cancer risk and sun protective behaviour in cardiac transplant recipients. It is hoped that this may reduce the risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer in these patients.


Subject(s)
Awareness , Heart Transplantation/psychology , Patient Education as Topic , Skin Neoplasms/psychology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Risk , Risk Reduction Behavior , Scotland , Surveys and Questionnaires
5.
Diabet Med ; 21(7): 790-2, 2004 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-15209776

ABSTRACT

AIM: To determine whether mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention vs. coronary bypass grafting varies according to whether or not patients have diabetes. METHODS: We used the Scottish Coronary Revascularization Register to identify all patients undergoing revascularization in Scottish NHS hospitals since 1997. We excluded single-vessel disease, left main stem stenosis, and bypass grafting performed at the same time as other operations. We used death certificate data from the Registrar General to identify all subsequent deaths. RESULTS: Of the 6320 eligible procedures, 5042 (80%) were bypass grafts and 1278 (20%) angioplasties. Overall 831 (13%) patients had diabetes with no significant difference by procedure (13% vs. 12%). A total of 382 deaths occurred over a mean follow-up of 2.3 years. Diabetic patients had a poorer prognosis following both surgery (adjusted hazards ratio (HR) 1.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08, 1.89) and percutaneous intervention (adjusted HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.43, 4.63). Among non-diabetic patients, no significant differences in mortality were detected between the two procedures. Among diabetic patients, no significant difference was detected in those with two-vessel disease. In those with impaired left ventricular function and triple-vessel disease, angioplasty was associated with a significantly higher risk of death (adjusted HR 3.58, 95% CI 1.40, 9.19). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to demonstrate statistically significant results that support the BARI trial findings. Our study demonstrated a significant difference for triple-vessel disease but not two-vessel disease. The former may be due to incomplete revascularization using percutaneous intervention. Our results require corroboration from randomized trials.


Subject(s)
Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary , Coronary Artery Bypass , Coronary Disease/therapy , Diabetic Angiopathies/therapy , Aged , Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary/mortality , Coronary Artery Bypass/mortality , Coronary Disease/mortality , Coronary Disease/surgery , Diabetic Angiopathies/mortality , Diabetic Angiopathies/surgery , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Proportional Hazards Models , Retrospective Studies , Scotland/epidemiology
6.
Eur Heart J ; 24(19): 1735-43, 2003 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-14522568

ABSTRACT

AIMS: The selection of patients for cardiac transplantation (CTx) is notoriously difficult and traditionally involves clinical assessment and an assimilation of markers of the severity of CHF such as the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), maximum oxygen uptake (peak VO2) and more recently, composite scoring systems e.g. the heart failure survival score (HFSS). Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) is well established as an independent predictor of prognosis in mild to moderate chronic heart failure (CHF). However, the prognostic ability of NT-proBNP in advanced heart failure is unknown and no studies have compared NT-proBNP to standard clinical markers used in the selection of patients for transplantation. The purpose of this study was to examine the prognostic ability of NT-proBNP in advanced heart failure and compare it to that of the LVEF, peak VO2 and the HFSS. METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively studied 142 consecutive patients with advanced CHF referred for consideration of CTx. Plasma for NT-proBNP analysis was sampled and patients followed up for a median of 374 days. The primary endpoint of all-cause mortality was reached in 20 (14.1%) patients and the combined secondary endpoint of all-cause mortality or urgent CTx was reached in 24 (16.9%) patients. An NT-proBNP concentration above the median was the only independent predictor of all cause mortality (chi2=6.03, P=0.01) and the combined endpoint of all cause mortality or urgent CTx (chi2 =12.68, P=0.0004). LVEF, VO2 and HFSS were not independently predictive of mortality or need for urgent cardiac transplantation in this study. CONCLUSION: A single measurement of NT-proBNP in patients with advanced CHF, can help to identify patients at highest risk of death, and is a better prognostic marker than the LVEF, VO2 or HFSS.


Subject(s)
Atrial Natriuretic Factor/blood , Heart Failure/mortality , Protein Precursors/blood , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Chronic Disease , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Heart Failure/blood , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Oxygen Consumption , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , ROC Curve , Regression Analysis , Sensitivity and Specificity , Survival Rate , Ventricular Dysfunction, Left/blood , Ventricular Dysfunction, Left/mortality
7.
Eur Heart J ; 23(20): 1617-24, 2002 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12323162

ABSTRACT

AIMS: Surgical myectomy has been successfully used to treat patients with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). More recently, alcohol septal ablation has been advocated as a less invasive, but equally effective alternative therapy. The aim of this non-randomized cohort study was to compare subjective and objective outcomes in patients undergoing these therapies. METHODS: Forty-four patients (25 male; age 41+/-15 years) with symptomatic drug-refractory obstructive HCM were studied. Twenty-four patients underwent surgical myectomy and 20 alcohol septal ablation. All patients underwent clinical evaluation, echocardiography and upright maximal cardiopulmonary exercise testing using a cycle ergometer before and following their intervention. RESULTS: Peak gradient was reduced to a similar extent by both modalities (myectomy: 83+/-23 to 15+/-10 mmHg (P<0.000001); ablation: 91+/-18 to 22+/-14 mmHg (P<0.000002);P =0.48 for myectomy vs ablation) and led to similar improvements in NYHA class (myectomy: 2.4+/-0.6 to 1.5+/-0.7 (P<0.00001); ablation: 2.3+/-0.5 to 1.7+/-0.8 (P<0.0001);P=0.3 for myectomy vs ablation). Myectomy resulted in a greater improvement in peak oxygen consumption (myectomy: 16.4+/-5.8 to 23.1+/-7.1 ml.kg(-1) min(-1) (P<0.00002); ablation: 16.2+/-5.2 to 19.3+/-6.1 ml.kg(-1) min(-1) (P<0.05);P <0.05 for myectomy vs ablation) and work rate achieved (myectomy: 130+/-57 to 161+/-60 watts (P<0.04); ablation: 121+/-53 to 137+/-51 watts (P=0.11);P <0.05 for myectomy vs ablation). CONCLUSION: Surgical myectomy and alcohol septal ablation are equally effective at reducing obstruction and subjective exercise limitation in appropriately selected patients. However, the superior effect of surgical myectomy on exercise test parameters suggests that surgery remains the gold standard against which new treatment modalities should be compared.


Subject(s)
Cardiac Surgical Procedures , Cardiomyopathy, Hypertrophic/drug therapy , Cardiomyopathy, Hypertrophic/surgery , Ethanol/therapeutic use , Heart Septum/drug effects , Heart Septum/surgery , Adult , Cardiomyopathy, Hypertrophic/diagnosis , Echocardiography , Exercise Test , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Time Factors
8.
Heart ; 87(5): 449-54, 2002 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11997419

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe the current practice and outcomes of intrathoracic transplantation in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Multicentre study involving all nine UK intrathoracic transplant units. PATIENTS: 2588 patients added to the national waiting list between April 1995 and March 1999 and 1737 patients who underwent heart, lung, or heart-lung transplantation in the same period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Waiting list mortality and post-transplant graft survival. RESULTS: There was a slight fall in transplant activity over the four years. Within six months of listing, 52.5% of patients on the heart transplant list had been transplanted and 11.0% had died, compared with 31.3% and 15.2% for lung, and 23.4% and 20.4% for heart-lung. The median time to transplant in days (95% confidence interval) was 133 (115 to 149) for heart, 386 (328 to 496) for lung, and 471 (377 to 577) for heart-lung. After three years, the waiting list mortality was 16.9% (6.1% to 46.8%) for heart, 33.1% (9.0% to 100%) for lung, and 36.5% (10.5% to 100%) for heart-lung. The three year graft survival after transplantation was 74.2% (71.2% to 77.0%) for heart, 53.8% (48.2% to 59.2%) for lung, and 57.2% (49.0% to 64.6%) for heart-lung. CONCLUSIONS: This validated database defines the current state of thoracic transplantation in the United Kingdom and is a useful source of data for workers involved in the field. Thoracic transplantation is still limited by donor scarcity and high mortality. Overoptimistic reports may reflect publication bias and are not supported by data from this national cohort.


Subject(s)
Heart Transplantation/statistics & numerical data , Lung Transplantation/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Cohort Studies , Female , Graft Survival , Heart Diseases/epidemiology , Heart Diseases/surgery , Heart Transplantation/mortality , Humans , Lung Diseases/epidemiology , Lung Diseases/surgery , Lung Transplantation/mortality , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Sex Distribution , Survival Analysis , Tissue Donors , Tissue and Organ Procurement , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Waiting Lists
9.
Clin Cardiol ; 24(6): 459-62, 2001 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11403507

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), a form of accelerated atherosclerosis, is the major cause of late death in heart transplant recipients. Routine annual coronary angiography has been used as the standard surveillance technique for CAV in most transplant centers. HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical utility of routine angiographic surveillance in the detection and management of CAV in transplant recipients. METHODS: We reviewed the case notes and angiograms of 230 patients who underwent cardiac transplantation in our unit between January 1986 and January 1996 and survived beyond the first year post transplantation. RESULTS: Significant complications secondary to angiography arose in 19 patients (8.2%). Cardiac allograft vasculopathy was present on none of angiograms performed 3 weeks post transplantation, but was identified in 9 patients (4%) at the first annual angiogram and an additional 25 patients by the fifth annual angiogram. A target lesion suitable for angioplasty was only identified in two patients, and only limited procedural success was achieved in both cases. Twenty-five patients (11%) died during the study period, and the most common cause of late death was graft failure which occurred in 10 patients. All patients who died from graft failure had significant CAV at autopsy, but the most recent coronary angiogram had been normal in eight of these patients. CONCLUSIONS: These data clearly illustrate the limited clinical utility of routine angiographic surveillance for CAV in heart transplant recipients and prompted us to abandon this method of surveillance in our unit.


Subject(s)
Coronary Angiography , Coronary Artery Bypass , Coronary Artery Disease/surgery , Humans , Transplantation , Ultrasonography, Interventional
15.
Thorax ; 56(3): 218-22, 2001 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11182015

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The EuroQol is a generic questionnaire developed to provide a simple method for assigning utility values to health. This study examines the applicability of the EuroQol to the measurement of quality of life in single, bilateral, and heart-lung transplantation. METHODS: A cross sectional study was performed in 87 patients awaiting lung transplantation and in 255 transplant recipients attending follow up clinics in four transplant units. RESULTS: In the waiting list group 61% reported extreme problems in at least one of the five EuroQol quality of life domains compared with 20% single lung recipients, 4% bilateral lung recipients, and 2% heart-lung recipients at 3 or more years after transplantation. The mean utility value of patients on the waiting list was 0.31. In comparison, utility values for recipients 3 years after transplantation were 0.61 for single, 0.82 for bilateral, and 0.87 for heart-lung transplants. The utility scores and health profiles of bilateral and heart-lung recipients were consistently superior to those of single lung recipients. Problems in all five domains were more frequent in single lung recipients. Subjective assessment with a visual analogue scale showed a similar trend. CONCLUSIONS: The EuroQol is a simple method of deriving a single utility value for quality of life and is responsive to changes after lung transplantation. It is worth considering as a means of monitoring quality of life after transplantation and as an index of quality of survival in research studies in solid organ transplantation. These data suggest that quality of life after transplantation of one lung is inferior to that after transplantation of two lungs.


Subject(s)
Lung Transplantation , Quality of Life , Surveys and Questionnaires/standards , Cross-Sectional Studies , Health Status , Health Status Indicators , Humans , Postoperative Care/standards , Time Factors , United Kingdom , Waiting Lists
16.
Transpl Int ; 13 Suppl 1: S201-2, 2000.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-11111996

ABSTRACT

Multi-organ thoracic transplantation, although beneficial to one recipient, has an opportunity cost of denied transplants to others. This paper compares population based outcomes of splitting lung blocks for two single lung transplants compared to doing one bilateral lung transplant, and suggests that the benefit of splitting lung blocks may not necessarily be double that of using each block for one recipient.


Subject(s)
Graft Survival , Lung Transplantation/statistics & numerical data , Tissue Donors/supply & distribution , Actuarial Analysis , Cadaver , Cause of Death , Disease-Free Survival , Graft Rejection/epidemiology , Humans , Lung Transplantation/methods , Lung Transplantation/physiology , Postoperative Complications/epidemiology , Reoperation , Retrospective Studies , Tissue and Organ Harvesting/methods , Treatment Outcome , United Kingdom
17.
Ann Thorac Surg ; 69(2): 551-5, 2000 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10735697

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Modified reperfusion after aortic cross-clamping is claimed to reduce myocardial injury, thus improving postoperative myocardial performance. METHODS: We measured perioperative release of creatine kinase-MB and troponin-T in 40 patients undergoing valve replacement (combined with coronary grafts in 12 cases) to determine whether infusion of a modified reperfusate before cross-clamp removal reduced myocardial injury. Patients were randomly allocated to one of two groups with minimization for age, surgeon, operation, and ventricular function. The control group received unmodified reperfusion, while the study group received a normothermic reperfusate, enhanced with glutamate and aspartate, for 5 minutes before removal of the cross-clamp. Serial determinations of troponin-T, creatine kinase-MB isoforms, and total creatine kinase-MB activity were made up to 5 days postoperatively. Requirements for inotropic support and evidence of myocardial infarction were documented. RESULTS: Creatine kinase-MB activity, creatine kinase-MB isoforms, and troponin-T were not significantly different between the two groups. There were no differences in the incidence of postoperative myocardial infarction or in inotrope requirement. CONCLUSIONS: Our study did not demonstrate any advantage in using modified reperfusion in this group of patients.


Subject(s)
Myocardial Reperfusion Injury/prevention & control , Reperfusion/methods , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Creatine Kinase/blood , Heart Arrest, Induced , Humans , Isoenzymes , Middle Aged , Troponin T/analysis
18.
Heart ; 83(4): 429-32, 2000 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10722544

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the value of the Parsonnet score (PS) in identifying preoperatively patients that are likely to spend < 24 hours on the intensive care unit (ICU) following cardiac surgery. METHOD: Prospectively collected data on 5591 patients were analysed. PS, mortality, the length of stay on the ICU (ICU-LOS), number of patients with clinical evidence of stroke, need for haemofiltration, resternotomy for bleeding, tracheostomy, and use of intra-aortic balloon pump were documented as outcomes. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve constructed using PS as a predictor of ICU stay < 24 hours identified a PS of 10 as the best cut off point that would predict ICU-LOS < 24 hours. The patients were therefore stratified by PS into two groups, those with a PS of 0 to 9 (PS 0-9) and those with a PS of 10 and above (PS 10+). RESULTS: The ROC curve constructed using PS as a predictor of ICU stay < 24 hours had an area under the curve of 0.70 (0.01). The maximum efficiency of the test was at a sensitivity of 0.68. This corresponded to PS 10. The positive predictive value of the test at this score was 90.5%. Patients with PS 0-9 had a mean ICU stay of 1.49 days, while patients with PS 10+ had a mean ICU stay of 2.89 days (p = 0.01). The risk of stroke, use of intra-aortic balloon pump, requirement for haemofiltration, need for tracheostomy, and risk of resternotomy for bleeding were each significantly less in patients with PS 0-9 versus those with a score of PS 10+ (p < 0.01 in all cases). The risk of a single complication was 4.7% (PS 0-9) v 15.2% (PS 10+) (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: PS is an impartial and objective method of predicting postoperative complications and ICU stay < 24 hours. This is of value in selecting a cohort of patients likely to maintain a smooth flow of patients through the cardiothoracic unit when resources are limited to a few free ICU beds.


Subject(s)
Cardiac Surgical Procedures , Health Status Indicators , Intensive Care Units/organization & administration , Postoperative Care , Aged , Female , Humans , Length of Stay , London , Male , Postoperative Complications , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , ROC Curve , Risk Factors
19.
Microbes Infect ; 1(4): 279-83, 1999 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10602661

ABSTRACT

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a major cause of morbidity in heart and lung transplant patients, resulting from immunosuppression-mediated reactivation of latent CMV originating either from the transplanted tissue, or the recipient. We showed that out of eight donor/recipient pairs, the lymph nodes (LNs) of three donors and four recipients, all CMV seropositive, harboured CMV DNA at exceeding levels compared with those of matched blood samples, as well as CMV RNA otherwise undetectable in patients' blood. On follow-up, patients positive for CMV DNA and RNA in LNs developed viraemia 4 to 5 weeks earlier than those initially polymerase chain reaction-negative for CMV. Our results indicate that LN are a significant site for sequestration and persistence of CMV and that LN may be important in seeding of CMV-infected cells into the circulation.


Subject(s)
Cytomegalovirus Infections/virology , Cytomegalovirus/isolation & purification , DNA, Viral/analysis , Heart Transplantation , Lung Transplantation , Lymph Nodes/virology , Tissue Donors , Cytomegalovirus/genetics , DNA, Viral/blood , Genome, Viral , Humans , Polymerase Chain Reaction , RNA, Viral/analysis , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , Viremia
20.
Eur J Cardiothorac Surg ; 16(4): 424-8, 1999 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-10571089

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: While there are numerous reports in the literature of risk factors for graft failure after heart transplantation, simple models for risk stratification are lacking. This study describes a simple method for risk stratification in adult heart transplantation that can be applied when the size of a dataset is insufficient for formal regression modelling. METHODS: Multi-centre prospective cohort study. Fourteen risk factors documented in the literature as increasing post transplant graft failure were used to formulate a model. Risk factors included in the model were recipient age >50 years, pre-operative ventilatory support, pre-operative circulatory support, >1 previous sternotomy, pulmonary vascular resistance >2.5 wood units, male with body surface area >2.5 m2, retransplant, ischaemic time >3.5 h, donor age >45 years, donor inotropic support >10 microg/kg per min dopamine, female donor, ratio donor/recipient body surface area <0.7, donor with diabetes and history of donor drug abuse. Four risk groups were defined depending on the number of risk factors present: Low, none; moderate, 1; high, 2 or 3; very high, 4 or more. Graft survival to 30 days was chosen as the primary outcome. The model was tested on 373 adult transplants performed in the UK between April 1995 and December 1996. RESULTS: Twenty eight transplants were low risk, 82 moderate, 201 high and 62 very high. The 30-day survival (70% CI) for the risk groups was low, 97% (93-100), moderate 95% (92-98), high 87% (84-89) and very high 80% (75-83) (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary model enables some stratification of heart transplant procedures according to donor and recipient risk profile. Further work will be directed at refining and validating the model.


Subject(s)
Heart Transplantation , Adult , Age Factors , Female , Graft Rejection/etiology , Graft Survival , Heart Diseases/surgery , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models , Prospective Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Factors , Sex Factors , Tissue Donors
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