Improving wellbeing and reducing future world population.

Almost 80% of the 4 billion projected increase in world population by 2100 comes from 37 Mid-African Countries (MACs), caused mostly by slow declines in Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Historically, TFR has declined in response to increases in wellbeing associated with economic development. We show that, when Infant Survival Rate (ISR, a proxy for wellbeing) has increased, MAC fertility has declined at the same rate, in relation to ISR, as it did in 61 comparable Other Developing Countries (ODCs) whose average fertility is close to replacement level. If MAC ISR were to increase at the historic rate of these ODCs, and TFR declined correspondingly, then the projected world population in 2100 would be decreasing and 1.1 billion lower than currently projected. Such rates of ISR increase, and TFR decrease, are quite feasible and have occurred in comparable ODCs. Increased efforts to improve the wellbeing of poor MAC populations are key.

Skewed attacks, stability, and host suppression.

It is well known that the model equilibrium in the Nicholson-Bailey framework for parasitoid-host interactions can be stabilized if there is variation in the risk of parasitism among individual hosts. We show that the shape of the distribution of risk among hosts is crucial in determining stability. Stability for all values of the reproduction rate R of the host requires the distribution to be skewed, with a modal risk of zero. As a consequence, a distribution of risk with nonzero mode but otherwise sufficiently high variability will not stabilize the host-parasitoid equilibrium for certain values of R. We also develop a new, simple, and general criterion for stability, according to which the host-parasitoid equilibrium is stable if and only if the adult host equilibrium density increases as host reproductive rate R increases. This reinforces previous results that skewed risk of the type needed for stability reduces parasitoid efficiency and hence the parasitoid's ability to suppress the host. Finally, we identify appropriate measures that can be made in the field to relate skew in risk of parasitism to stability.

Conserving biodiversity efficiently: what to do, where, and when.

Conservation priority-setting schemes have not yet combined geographic priorities with a framework that can guide the allocation of funds among alternate conservation actions that address specific threats. We develop such a framework, and apply it to 17 of the world's 39 Mediterranean ecoregions. This framework offers an improvement over approaches that only focus on land purchase or species richness and do not account for threats. We discover that one could protect many more plant and vertebrate species by investing in a sequence of conservation actions targeted towards specific threats, such as invasive species control, land acquisition, and off-reserve management, than by relying solely on acquiring land for protected areas. Applying this new framework will ensure investment in actions that provide the most cost-effective outcomes for biodiversity conservation. This will help to minimise the misallocation of scarce conservation resources.