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1.
Sci Total Environ ; : 174630, 2024 Jul 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39009140

ABSTRACT

Latin American (LatAm) cities are grappling with elevated levels of gaseous and particulate pollutants, which are having detrimental effects on both the local ecosystem and human health. Of particular concern are aerosols with smaller diameters (lower or equal to 2.5 µm, PM2.5), known for their ability to penetrate deep into the respiratory system. While measurements in the region are increasing, they remain limited. This study addresses this gap by presenting the results of a comprehensive, year-long PM2.5 monitoring campaign conducted in six LatAm cities: Buenos Aires, São Paulo, Medellín, San José, Quito and Ciudad de México. Despite all six monitoring sites being urban, they exhibited significant variations in PM2.5 levels, as well as in the content and seasonal behavior of elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC). Estimations of secondary organic carbon (SOC) using the EC-tracer method revealed a notable SOC relevance across all cities: secondary organic aerosols (SOA) accounted in average for between 19 % to 48 % of the total carbonaceous matter. Source attribution, conducted through the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model, highlights substantial contributions from gasoline and diesel traffic emissions (29 % to 49 % of total carbon, TC), regional biomass burning (21 % to 27 %), and SOA (20 % to 38 %) in all cities, with similar chemical signatures. Additionally, industrial emissions were significant in two cities (Medellín and San José), while two others experienced minor impacts from construction machinery at nearby sites (Buenos Aires and Quito). This comparative analysis underscores the importance of considering not only the thermal optical EC/OC fractions as tracers of sources but also the OC/EC ratio of the PMF factors. This dual approach not only adds depth to the research but also suggests varied methodologies for addressing this crucial environmental concern. This study lays the groundwork for future investigations into the factors influencing the content and seasonality of SOA in the region.

2.
J Glob Antimicrob Resist ; 36: 4-12, 2024 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38016592

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Ceftaroline, a broad-spectrum cephalosporin, has activity against Gram-positive and several Gram-negative bacteria (GNB). This study aimed to evaluate the antimicrobial activity of ceftaroline and comparators against isolates causing skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) and respiratory tract infections (RTIs) collected in Latin America (LATAM) in 2016-2020 as part of the Antimicrobial Testing Leadership and Surveillance program (ATLAS). METHODS: Minimum inhibitory concentrations were determined using both Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) and European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) criteria. RESULTS: Ceftaroline demonstrated potent activity against methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (CLSI/EUCAST: MIC90 0.25 mg/L; susceptibility 100%), whereas activity against methicillin-resistant S. aureus varied for SSTIs (MIC90 1 mg/L; susceptibility 92.5%) and RTIs isolates (MIC90 2 mg/L; susceptibility 72.9%) isolates. For Streptococcus pneumoniae, particularly penicillin-resistant isolates commonly causing respiratory infections, high ceftaroline activity (MIC90 0.25 mg/L; susceptibility 100%/98.4%) was noted. All isolates of ß-hemolytic streptococci were susceptible to ceftaroline (S. agalactiae: MIC90 0.03 mg/L [SSTIs]; MIC90 0.015 mg/L (RTIs); susceptibility 100%; S. pyogenes: MIC90 0.008 mg/L; susceptibility 100%). Ceftaroline was highly active against Haemophilus influenzae, including ß-lactamase positive isolates (MIC90 0.06 mg/L; susceptibility 100%/85.7%). Ceftaroline demonstrated high activity against non-ESBL-producing GNB (E. coli: MIC90 0.5 mg/L, susceptibility 91.9%; K. pneumoniae: MIC90 0.25 mg/L, susceptibility 95.1%; K. oxytoca, MIC90 0.5 mg/L; susceptibility 95.7%). CONCLUSION: Ceftaroline was active against the recent collection of bacterial pathogens commonly causing SSTIs and RTIs in LATAM. Local and regional surveillance of antimicrobial resistance patterns are crucial to understand evolving resistance and guide treatment management.


Subject(s)
Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus , Respiratory Tract Infections , Humans , Ceftaroline , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology , Latin America , Escherichia coli , Gram-Negative Bacteria , Respiratory Tract Infections/microbiology , Microbial Sensitivity Tests
3.
Math Biosci ; 366: 109091, 2023 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37996064

ABSTRACT

Cancer occurs as a consequence of multiple somatic mutations that lead to uncontrolled cell growth. Mutual exclusivity and co-occurrence of mutations imply-but do not prove-that mutations exert synergistic or antagonistic epistatic effects on oncogenesis. Knowledge of these interactions, and the consequent trajectories of mutation and selection that lead to cancer has been a longstanding goal within the cancer research community. Recent research has revealed mutation rates and scaled selection coefficients for specific recurrent variants across many cancer types. However, there are no current methods to quantify the strength of selection incorporating pairwise and higher-order epistatic effects on selection within the trajectory of likely cancer genotoypes. Therefore, we have developed a continuous-time Markov chain model that enables the estimation of mutation origination and fixation (flux), dependent on somatic cancer genotype. Coupling this continuous-time Markov chain model with a deconvolution approach provides estimates of underlying mutation rates and selection across the trajectory of oncogenesis. We demonstrate computation of fluxes and selection coefficients in a somatic evolutionary model for the four most frequently variant driver genes (TP53, LRP1B, KRAS and STK11) from 565 cases of lung adenocarcinoma. Our analysis reveals multiple antagonistic epistatic effects that reduce the possible routes of oncogenesis, and inform cancer research regarding viable trajectories of somatic evolution whose progression could be forestalled by precision medicine. Synergistic epistatic effects are also identified, most notably in the somatic genotype TP53 LRP1B for mutations in the KRAS gene, and in somatic genotypes containing KRAS or TP53 mutations for mutations in the STK11 gene. Large positive fluxes of KRAS variants were driven by large selection coefficients, whereas the flux toward LRP1B mutations was substantially aided by a large mutation rate for this gene. The approach enables inference of the most likely routes of site-specific variant evolution and estimation of the strength of selection operating on each step along the route, a key component of what we need to know to develop and implement personalized cancer therapies.


Subject(s)
Mutation Rate , Proto-Oncogene Proteins p21(ras) , Humans , Proto-Oncogene Proteins p21(ras)/genetics , Mutation , Carcinogenesis/genetics , Genotype
4.
BMC Infect Dis ; 23(1): 463, 2023 Jul 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37434158

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that more than 50% of the antibiotics used in hospitals are unnecessary or inappropriate and, that antimicrobial resistance may cost up to 20 billion USD in excess medical costs each year. On the other hand, Antimicrobial Stewardship Programs (ASP) significantly reduce inappropriate antimicrobial use, emergence of antimicrobial resistance, healthcare associated infections, and costs in hospital settings. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the development of ASP and antibiotic savings in 7 Latin American hospitals using standardized quantitative indicators in all the participating health care institutions. METHODS: An interventional study was conducted, where pre- and post- evaluations were performed using a standardized score tool adapted from the Joint Commission International accreditation standards and, the Colombian Institute of Technical Standards and Certification. We evaluated ASP from 7 Latin American hospitals between 2019 and 2020. A pre-intervention evaluation was done in each hospital to quantify the degree of development of the ASP (ASP Development score). Based on these results, tailored on-site training was implemented in each hospital, followed by a post-intervention evaluation to quantify improvement of ASP-development indicators. In addition, monetary savings in antimicrobials derived from the ASP intervention were estimated. RESULTS: In the pre-intervention evaluation, the average ASP development score for the 7 institutions was 65.8% (40-94.3%). The items with the lowest development score were those related to monitoring and communicating the ASP progress and success. For the post-intervention evaluation, 2 institutions couldn't participate due to the pressure imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. For the remaining 5/7 hospitals, the average ASP development score was 82.3% with an increase of 12.0% when compared to the pre-intervention measurement of the same institutions (average pre-intervention score 70.3% (48.2%-94.3%) The items with a significant increase were key performance indicators, AMS education and training of the prescribers. Three of the seven (3/7) hospitals reported antibiotic monetary savings associated to the ASP intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The use of the tool described shown to be useful to evaluate specific areas of ASP-development that were lacking and tailor interventions for the participating hospitals, consequently, it helped improve ASP-development in the institutions that underwent pre- intervention and post-intervention analysis. In addition, the strategies showed monetary savings on antimicrobial costs when measured.


Subject(s)
Antimicrobial Stewardship , COVID-19 , Humans , Latin America , Pandemics , Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use
5.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(28): e2300590120, 2023 07 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37399393

ABSTRACT

When an influenza pandemic emerges, temporary school closures and antiviral treatment may slow virus spread, reduce the overall disease burden, and provide time for vaccine development, distribution, and administration while keeping a larger portion of the general population infection free. The impact of such measures will depend on the transmissibility and severity of the virus and the timing and extent of their implementation. To provide robust assessments of layered pandemic intervention strategies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded a network of academic groups to build a framework for the development and comparison of multiple pandemic influenza models. Research teams from Columbia University, Imperial College London/Princeton University, Northeastern University, the University of Texas at Austin/Yale University, and the University of Virginia independently modeled three prescribed sets of pandemic influenza scenarios developed collaboratively by the CDC and network members. Results provided by the groups were aggregated into a mean-based ensemble. The ensemble and most component models agreed on the ranking of the most and least effective intervention strategies by impact but not on the magnitude of those impacts. In the scenarios evaluated, vaccination alone, due to the time needed for development, approval, and deployment, would not be expected to substantially reduce the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths that would occur. Only strategies that included early implementation of school closure were found to substantially mitigate early spread and allow time for vaccines to be developed and administered, especially under a highly transmissible pandemic scenario.


Subject(s)
Influenza Vaccines , Influenza, Human , Humans , Influenza, Human/drug therapy , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Pharmaceutical Preparations , Pandemics/prevention & control , Influenza Vaccines/therapeutic use , Antiviral Agents/pharmacology , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use
7.
Cereb Cortex ; 32(21): 4715-4732, 2022 10 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35106536

ABSTRACT

Classical lesion studies led to a consensus that episodic and procedural memory arises from segregated networks identified with the hippocampus and the caudate nucleus, respectively. Neuroimaging studies, however, show that competitive and cooperative interactions occur between networks during memory tasks. Furthermore, causal experiments to manipulate connectivity between these networks have not been performed in humans. Although nodes common to both networks, such as the precuneus and ventrolateral thalamus, may mediate their interaction, there is no experimental evidence for this. We tested how network-targeted noninvasive brain stimulation affects episodic-procedural network interactions and how these network manipulations affect episodic and procedural memory in healthy young adults. Compared to control (vertex) stimulation, hippocampal network-targeted stimulation increased within-network functional connectivity and hippocampal connectivity with the caudate. It also increased episodic, relative to procedural, memory, and this persisted one week later. The differential effect on episodic versus procedural memory was associated with increased functional connectivity between the caudate, precuneus, and ventrolateral thalamus. These findings provide direct evidence of episodic-procedural network competition, mediated by regions common to both networks. Enhanced hippocampal network connectivity may boost episodic, but decrease procedural, memory by co-opting resources shared between networks.


Subject(s)
Memory, Episodic , Young Adult , Humans , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Parietal Lobe/physiology , Hippocampus/physiology , Neuroimaging
8.
Cureus ; 14(1): e21111, 2022 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35165569

ABSTRACT

Soft tissue infection is an uncommon presentation of Cryptococcus in the absence of immunosuppression. Most infected patients present with pneumonia or meningitis, often with signs of disseminated disease, which may be fatal. We present a case of an 81-year-old mildly immunocompromised woman with multiple comorbidities, who presented with an extensive soft tissue infection on her right medial thigh. Superficial skin culture grew vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus; however, both initial and subsequent antibacterial therapies failed to resolve the infection. Subsequent biopsy revealed abundant yeasts, and mucicarmine staining confirmed Cryptococcus infection in a patient with no evidence of disseminated disease. Wound debridement and fluconazole for six months resulted in complete resolution of the lesion. In this report, we emphasize the need for tissue biopsy and microbial cultures in diagnosing patients with atypical skin and soft tissue infections who do not respond to appropriate antibiotics.

10.
Behav Brain Res ; 419: 113707, 2022 02 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34890597

ABSTRACT

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) targeted to the hippocampal network via the inferior parietal cortex (HN-Stim) can strengthen hippocampal-cortical connectivity and improve episodic memory, offering a potential clinical intervention. However, acceptance of this technique has been tempered by the infrequent reproduction of findings in rTMS research on cognitive processes. We tested the reproducibility of the HN-Stim effect on episodic memory in our laboratory using different procedures from those previously published. We tested episodic memory in 29 participants before, one day, and one week after, three consecutive days of 20 Hz HN-Stim. Participants received stimulation targeted to either the area of inferior parietal cortex maximally connected to the left anterior hippocampus (HN-Stim; N = 14) or the vertex (control; N = 15), where we expected no effect. HN-Stim increased episodic memory performance one day, but not one week, after the last stimulation session. While failing to reproduce the lasting beneficial effect on memory found by others after five days of treatment, we found robust effects on behavior 24 h after treatment. HN-Stim is a safe and reliable means of enhancing episodic memory and may have potential for boosting learning and treating memory deficits.


Subject(s)
Hippocampus/physiology , Memory, Episodic , Nerve Net/physiology , Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation , Adult , Humans , Parietal Lobe/physiology , Reproducibility of Results , Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation/standards
11.
Neuroimage ; 237: 118199, 2021 08 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34033914

ABSTRACT

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) of the inferior parietal cortex (IPC) increases resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) of the hippocampus with the precuneus and other posterior cortical areas and causes proportional improvement of episodic memory. The anatomical pathway(s) responsible for the propagation of these effects from the IPC is unknown and may not be direct. In order to assess the relative contributions of candidate pathways from the IPC to the MTL via the parahippocampal cortex and precuneus, to the effects of rTMS on rsFC and memory improvement, we used diffusion tensor imaging to measure the extent to which individual differences in fractional anisotropy (FA) in these pathways accounted for individual differences in response. FA in the IPC-parahippocampal pathway and several MTL pathways predicted changes in rsFC. FA in both parahippocampal and hippocampal pathways was related to changes in episodic, but not procedural, memory. These results implicate pathways to the MTL in the enhancing effect of parietal rTMS on hippocampal rsFC and memory.


Subject(s)
Connectome , Hippocampus , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Memory, Episodic , Nerve Net , Parahippocampal Gyrus , Parietal Lobe , Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation , Adult , Diffusion Tensor Imaging , Female , Hippocampus/anatomy & histology , Hippocampus/diagnostic imaging , Hippocampus/physiology , Humans , Individuality , Male , Nerve Net/anatomy & histology , Nerve Net/diagnostic imaging , Nerve Net/physiology , Neural Pathways/anatomy & histology , Neural Pathways/diagnostic imaging , Neural Pathways/physiology , Parahippocampal Gyrus/anatomy & histology , Parahippocampal Gyrus/diagnostic imaging , Parahippocampal Gyrus/physiology , Parietal Lobe/anatomy & histology , Parietal Lobe/diagnostic imaging , Parietal Lobe/physiology , Young Adult
13.
Front Pediatr ; 7: 431, 2019.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31803694

ABSTRACT

Background: Pneumonia caused 704,000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2015. Zinc is an important micronutrient due to its role in immune function. Since 2004, WHO recommends zinc supplementation for children with diarrhea to shorten the duration and decrease severity. Zinc supplementation for children with pneumonia is controversial. Methods: A randomized controlled clinical trial was conducted, and 103 children 1 month to 5 years old with pneumonia were included. Zinc or placebo was given during hospitalization. Clinical symptoms were recorded, and a blood draw was obtained to determine serum zinc levels, lymphoproliferation, and cytokines at hospitalization and at discharge of the patient; a nasal wash was obtained to detect viral or bacterial pathogens by multiplex RT-PCR. Results: Zinc supplementation improved in fewer hours the clinical status (76 ± 7 vs. 105 ± 8, p = 0.01), the respiratory rate (37 ± 6 vs. 57 ± 7, p = 0.04), and the oxygen saturation (53 ± 7 vs. 87 ± 9, p = 0.007) compared to the placebo group. An increase in IFNγ and IL-2 after treatment in the zinc group was observed. Conclusions: Zinc supplementation improved some clinical symptoms in children with pneumonia in fewer hours and induced a cellular immune response. Clinical Trial Registration: The trial was retrospectively registered in ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT03690583, URL https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03690583?term=zinc+children&cond=Pneumonia&draw=2&rank=1.

14.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 116(41): 20786-20792, 2019 10 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31548402

ABSTRACT

The efficacy of influenza vaccines, currently at 44%, is limited by the rapid antigenic evolution of the virus and a manufacturing process that can lead to vaccine mismatch. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) recently identified the development of a universal influenza vaccine with an efficacy of at least 75% as a high scientific priority. The US Congress approved $130 million funding for the 2019 fiscal year to support the development of a universal vaccine, and another $1 billion over 5 y has been proposed in the Flu Vaccine Act. Using a model of influenza transmission, we evaluated the population-level impacts of universal influenza vaccines distributed according to empirical age-specific coverage at multiple scales in the United States. We estimate that replacing just 10% of typical seasonal vaccines with 75% efficacious universal vaccines would avert ∼5.3 million cases, 81,000 hospitalizations, and 6,300 influenza-related deaths per year. This would prevent over $1.1 billion in direct health care costs compared to a typical season, based on average data from the 2010-11 to 2018-19 seasons. A complete replacement of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines is projected to prevent 17 million cases, 251,000 hospitalizations, 19,500 deaths, and $3.5 billion in direct health care costs. States with high per-hospitalization medical expenses along with a large proportion of elderly residents are expected to receive the maximum economic benefit. Replacing even a fraction of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines justifies the substantial cost of vaccine development.


Subject(s)
Cost-Benefit Analysis , Health Care Costs/statistics & numerical data , Hospitalization/economics , Influenza Vaccines/economics , Influenza, Human/economics , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Vaccination/economics , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Influenza A virus/isolation & purification , Influenza Vaccines/therapeutic use , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Seasons , United States/epidemiology , Vaccination/methods , Young Adult
15.
Pediatr Res ; 85(4): 566-573, 2019 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30683931

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Cleft palate (CP) constitutes the most frequently seen orofacial cleft and is often associated with low folate status. Folate plays an essential role in the human body as a major coenzyme in one-carbon metabolism, including DNA synthesis, repair, and methylation. Whether the administration of isolated folic acid (FA) supplements prevents the CP caused by genetic mutations is unknown, as is its effect on the mechanisms leading to palate fusion. METHODS: FA was administered to females from two different strains of transforming growth factor ß3 heterozygous mice. Null mutant progeny of these mice exhibit CP in 100% of cases of varying severity. We measured cleft length, height of palatal shelf adhesion, and the number of proliferating mesenchymal cells. Immunohistochemistry was also carried for collagen IV, laminin, fibronectin, cytokeratin-17, and EGF. RESULTS: FA supplementation significantly reduced CP severity and improved palatal shelf adhesion in both strains both in vivo and in vitro. Medial edge epithelium proliferation increased, and its differentiation was normalized as indicated by the presence and disposition of collagen IV, laminin, fibronectin, and cytokeratin-17. CONCLUSIONS: A maternal FA supplementation reduces the CP appearance by improving the mechanisms leading to palatal shelf adhesion.


Subject(s)
Cleft Palate/prevention & control , Dietary Supplements , Folic Acid/administration & dosage , Mutation , Transforming Growth Factor beta3/genetics , Animals , Cell Adhesion , Cell Proliferation , Cleft Palate/pathology , Female , Heterozygote , Mice , Mice, Knockout , Pregnancy , Severity of Illness Index
16.
J Differ Equ ; 267(10): 5631-5661, 2019 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35923920

ABSTRACT

Modeling time-since-last-infection (TSLI) provides a means of formulating epidemiological models with fewer state variables (or epidemiological classes) and more flexible descriptions of infectivity after infection and susceptibility after recovery than usual. The model considered here has two time variables: chronological time (t) and the TSLI (τ), and it has only two classes: never infected ( N ) and infected at least once (i). Unlike most age-structured epidemiological models, in which the i equation is formulated using ( ∂ ∂ τ + ∂ ∂ t ) i ( τ , t ) , ours uses a more general differential operator. This allows weaker conditions for the infectivity and susceptibility functions, and thus, is more generally applicable. We reformulate the model as an age dependent population problem for analysis, so that published results for these types of problems can be applied, including the existence and regularity of model solutions. We also show how other coupled models having two types of time variables can be stated as age dependent population problems.

17.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 11(4): e0005531, 2017 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28448488

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: As the Zika virus epidemic continues to spread internationally, countries such as the United States must determine how much to invest in prevention, control, and response. Fundamental to these decisions is quantifying the potential economic burden of Zika under different scenarios. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: To inform such decision making, our team developed a computational model to forecast the potential economic burden of Zika across six states in the US (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas) which are at greatest risk of Zika emergence, under a wide range of attack rates, scenarios and circumstances. In order to accommodate a wide range of possibilities, different scenarios explored the effects of varying the attack rate from 0.01% to 10%. Across the six states, an attack rate of 0.01% is estimated to cost $183.4 million to society ($117.1 million in direct medical costs and $66.3 million in productivity losses), 0.025% would result in $198.6 million ($119.4 million and $79.2 million), 0.10% would result in $274.6 million ($130.8 million and $143.8 million) and 1% would result in $1.2 billion ($268.0 million and $919.2 million). CONCLUSIONS: Our model and study show how direct medical costs, Medicaid costs, productivity losses, and total costs to society may vary with different attack rates across the six states and the circumstances at which they may exceed certain thresholds (e.g., Zika prevention and control funding allocations that are being debated by the US government). A Zika attack rate of 0.3% across the six states at greatest risk of Zika infection, would result in total costs that exceed $0.5 billion, an attack rate of 1% would exceed $1 billion, and an attack rate of 2% would exceed $2 billion.


Subject(s)
Cost of Illness , Health Care Costs , Zika Virus Infection/economics , Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology , Computer Simulation , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , United States/epidemiology
19.
IDCases ; 5: 72-5, 2016.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27516969

ABSTRACT

Two brothers with congenitally-acquired Chagas' disease (CD) diagnosed during adulthood are reported. The patients were born in the USA to a mother from Bolivia who on subsequent assessment was found to be serologically positive for Trypanosoma cruzi. Serologic screening of all pregnant women who migrated from countries with endemic CD is strongly recommended.

20.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 10(5): e0004743, 2016 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27205899

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: As Zika virus continues to spread, decisions regarding resource allocations to control the outbreak underscore the need for a tool to weigh policies according to their cost and the health burden they could avert. For example, to combat the current Zika outbreak the US President requested the allocation of $1.8 billion from Congress in February 2016. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Illustrated through an interactive tool, we evaluated how the number of Zika cases averted, the period during pregnancy in which Zika infection poses a risk of microcephaly, and probabilities of microcephaly and Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) impact the cost at which an intervention is cost-effective. From Northeast Brazilian microcephaly incidence data, we estimated the probability of microcephaly in infants born to Zika-infected women (0.49% to 2.10%). We also estimated the probability of GBS arising from Zika infections in Brazil (0.02% to 0.06%) and Colombia (0.08%). We calculated that each microcephaly and GBS case incurs the loss of 29.95 DALYs and 1.25 DALYs per case, as well as direct medical costs for Latin America and the Caribbean of $91,102 and $28,818, respectively. We demonstrated the utility of our cost-effectiveness tool with examples evaluating funding commitments by Costa Rica and Brazil, the US presidential proposal, and the novel approach of genetically modified mosquitoes. Our analyses indicate that the commitments and the proposal are likely to be cost-effective, whereas the cost-effectiveness of genetically modified mosquitoes depends on the country of implementation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Current estimates from our tool suggest that the health burden from microcephaly and GBS warrants substantial expenditures focused on Zika virus control. Our results justify the funding committed in Costa Rica and Brazil and many aspects of the budget outlined in the US president's proposal. As data continue to be collected, new parameter estimates can be customized in real-time within our user-friendly tool to provide updated estimates on cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions in country-specific settings.


Subject(s)
Health Care Costs , Health Policy , Zika Virus Infection/economics , Zika Virus Infection/prevention & control , Aedes/genetics , Aedes/virology , Animals , Animals, Genetically Modified , Brazil/epidemiology , Caribbean Region/epidemiology , Cost of Illness , Cost-Benefit Analysis/legislation & jurisprudence , Costa Rica/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/economics , Disease Outbreaks/legislation & jurisprudence , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Female , Health Care Costs/legislation & jurisprudence , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Microcephaly/etiology , Microcephaly/prevention & control , Microcephaly/virology , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/economics , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/prevention & control , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/virology , Zika Virus/isolation & purification , Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology , Zika Virus Infection/virology
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