Climate variability and Aedes vector indices in the southern Philippines: An empirical analysis.

BACKGROUND: Vector surveillance is an essential public health tool to aid in the prediction and prevention of mosquito borne diseases. This study compared spatial and temporal trends of vector surveillance indices for Aedes vectors in the southern Philippines, and assessed potential links between vector indices and climate factors. METHODS: We analysed routinely collected larval and pupal surveillance data from residential areas of 14 cities and 51 municipalities during 2013-2018 (House, Container, Breteau and Pupal Indices), and used linear regression to explore potential relationships between vector indices and climate variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation). RESULTS: We found substantial spatial and temporal variation in monthly Aedes vector indices between cities during the study period, and no seasonal trend apparent. The House (HI), Container (CI) and Breteau (BI) Indices remained at comparable levels across most surveys (mean HI = 15, mean CI = 16, mean BI = 24), while the Pupal Productivity Index (PPI) was relatively lower in most months (usually below 5) except for two main peak periods (mean = 49 overall). A small proportion of locations recorded high values across all entomological indices in multiple surveys. Each of the vector indices were significantly correlated with one or more climate variables when matched to data from the same month or the previous 1 or 2 months, although the effect sizes were small. Significant associations were identified between minimum temperature and HI, CI and BI in the same month (R2 = 0.038, p = 0.007; R2 = 0.029, p = 0.018; and R2 = 0.034, p = 0.011, respectively), maximum temperature and PPI with a 2-month lag (R2 = 0.031, p = 0.032), and precipitation and HI in the same month (R2 = 0.023, p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicated that larval and pupal surveillance indices were highly variable, were regularly above the threshold for triggering vector control responses, and that vector indices based on household surveys were weakly yet significantly correlated with city-level climate variables. We suggest that more detailed spatial and temporal analyses of entomological, climate, socio-environmental and Aedes-borne disease incidence data are necessary to ascertain the most effective use of entomological indices in guiding vector control responses, and reduction of human disease risk.

A regional suitable conditions index to forecast the impact of climate change on dengue vectorial capacity.

BACKGROUND: The mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of dengue virus, and their geographic distributions are predicted to expand further with economic development, and in response to climate change. We aimed to estimate the impact of future climate change on dengue transmission through the development of a Suitable Conditions Index (SCI), based on climatic variables known to support vectorial capacity. We calculated the SCI based on various climate change scenarios for six countries in the Asia-Pacific region (Australia, China, Indonesia, The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam). METHODS: Monthly raster climate data (temperature and precipitation) were collected for the period January 2005 to December 2018 along with projected climate estimates for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4·5, 6·0 and 8·5 emissions scenarios. We defined suitable temperature ranges for dengue transmission of between 17·05-34·61 °C for Ae. aegypti and 15·84-31·51 °C for Ae. albopictus and then developed a historical and predicted SCI based on weather variability to measure the expected geographic limits of dengue vectorial capacity. Historical and projected SCI values were compared through difference maps for the six countries. FINDINGS: Comparing different emission scenarios across all countries, we found that most South East Asian countries showed either a stable pattern of high suitability, or a potential decline in suitability for both vectors from 2030 to 2070, with a declining pattern particularly evident for Ae. albopictus. Temperate areas of both China and Australia showed a less stable pattern, with both moderate increases and decreases in suitability for each vector in different regions between 2030 and 2070. INTERPRETATION: The SCI will be a useful index for forecasting potential dengue risk distributions in response to climate change, and independently of the effects of human activity. When considered alongside additional correlates of infection such as human population density and socioeconomic development indicators, the SCI could be used to develop an early warning system for dengue transmission.

The environmental and ecological determinants of elevated Ross River Virus exposure in koalas residing in urban coastal landscapes.

Koala populations in many areas of Australia have declined sharply in response to habitat loss, disease and the effects of climate change. Koalas may face further morbidity from endemic mosquito-borne viruses, but the impact of such viruses is currently unknown. Few seroprevalence studies in the wild exist and little is known of the determinants of exposure. Here, we exploited a large, spatially and temporally explicit koala survey to define the intensity of Ross River Virus (RRV) exposure in koalas residing in urban coastal environments in southeast Queensland, Australia. We demonstrate that RRV exposure in koalas is much higher (> 80%) than reported in other sero-surveys and that exposure is uniform across the urban coastal landscape. Uniformity in exposure is related to the presence of the major RRV mosquito vector, Culex annulirostris, and similarities in animal movement, tree use, and age-dependent increases in exposure risk. Elevated exposure ultimately appears to result from the confinement of remaining coastal koala habitat to the edges of permanent wetlands unsuitable for urban development and which produce large numbers of competent mosquito vectors. The results further illustrate that koalas and other RRV-susceptible vertebrates may serve as useful sentinels of human urban exposure in endemic areas.

Spatial and temporal patterns of Ross River virus in south east Queensland, Australia: identification of hot spots at the rural-urban interface.

BACKGROUND: Ross River virus (RRV) is responsible for the most common vector-borne disease of humans reported in Australia. The virus circulates in enzootic cycles between multiple species of mosquitoes, wildlife reservoir hosts and humans. Public health concern about RRV is increasing due to rising incidence rates in Australian urban centres, along with increased circulation in Pacific Island countries. Australia experienced its largest recorded outbreak of 9544 cases in 2015, with the majority reported from south east Queensland (SEQ). This study examined potential links between disease patterns and transmission pathways of RRV. METHODS: The spatial and temporal distribution of notified RRV cases, and associated epidemiological features in SEQ, were analysed for the period 2001-2016. This included fine-scale analysis of disease patterns across the suburbs of the capital city of Brisbane, and those of 8 adjacent Local Government Areas, and host spot analyses to identify locations with significantly high incidence. RESULTS: The mean annual incidence rate for the region was 41/100,000 with a consistent seasonal peak in cases between February and May. The highest RRV incidence was in adults aged from 30 to 64 years (mean incidence rate: 59/100,000), and females had higher incidence rates than males (mean incidence rates: 44/100,000 and 34/100,000, respectively). Spatial patterns of disease were heterogeneous between years, and there was a wide distribution of disease across both urban and rural areas of SEQ. Overall, the highest incidence rates were reported from predominantly rural suburbs to the north of Brisbane City, with significant hot spots located in peri-urban suburbs where residential, agricultural and conserved natural land use types intersect. CONCLUSIONS: Although RRV is endemic across all of SEQ, transmission is most concentrated in areas where urban and peri-urban environments intersect. The drivers of RRV transmission across rural-urban landscapes should be prioritised for further investigation, including identification of specific vectors and hosts that mediate human spillover.

A micro-PRNT for the detection of Ross River virus antibodies in mosquito blood meals: A useful tool for inferring transmission pathways.

INTRODUCTION: Many arboviruses of public health significance are maintained in zoonotic cycles with complex transmission pathways. The presence of serum antibody against arboviruses in vertebrates provides evidence of their historical exposure but reveals nothing about the vector-reservoir relationship. Moreover, collecting blood or tissue samples from vertebrate hosts is ethically and logistically challenging. We developed a novel approach for screening the immune status of vertebrates against Ross River virus that allows us to implicate the vectors that form the transmission pathways for this commonly notified Australian arboviral disease. METHODS: A micro-plaque reduction neutralisation test (micro-PRNT) was developed and validated on koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) sera against a standard PRNT. The ability of the micro-PRNT to detect RRV antibodies in mosquito blood meals was then tested using two mosquito models. Laboratory-reared Aedes aegypti were fed, via a membrane, on sheep blood supplemented with RRV seropositive and seronegative human sera. Aedes notoscriptus were fed on RRV seropositive and seronegative human volunteers. Blood-fed mosquitoes were harvested at various time points after feeding and their blood meals analysed for the presence of RRV neutralising antibodies using the micro-PRNT. RESULTS: There was significant agreement of the plaque neutralisation resulting from the micro-PRNT and standard PRNT techniques (R2 = 0.65; P<0.0001) when applied to RRV antibody detection in koala sera. Sensitivity and specificity of the micro-PRNT assay were 88.2% and 96%, respectively, in comparison with the standard PRNT. Blood meals from mosquitoes fed on sheep blood supplemented with RRV antibodies, and on blood from RRV seropositive humans neutralised the virus by ≥50% until 48 hr post feeding. The vertebrate origin of the blood meal was also ascertained for the same samples, in parallel, using established molecular techniques. CONCLUSIONS: The small volumes of blood present in mosquito abdomens can be used to identify RRV antibodies and therefore host exposure to arbovirus infection. In tandem with the accurate identification of the mosquito, and diagnostics for the host origin of the blood meal, this technique has tremendous potential for exploring RRV transmission pathways. It can be adapted for similar studies on other mosquito borne zoonoses.

Interpreting mosquito feeding patterns in Australia through an ecological lens: an analysis of blood meal studies.

BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne pathogens contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, infecting millions of people each year. Mosquito feeding is critical to the transmission dynamics of pathogens, and thus it is important to understanding and interpreting mosquito feeding patterns. In this paper we explore mosquito feeding patterns and their implications for disease ecology through a meta-analysis of published blood meal results collected across Australia from more than 12,000 blood meals from 22 species. To assess mosquito-vertebrate associations and identify mosquitoes on a spectrum of generalist or specialist feeders, we analysed blood meal data in two ways; first using a novel odds ratio analysis, and secondly by calculating Shannon's diversity scores. RESULTS: We find that each mosquito species had a unique feeding association with different vertebrates, suggesting species-specific feeding patterns. Broadly, mosquito species could be grouped broadly into those that were primarily ornithophilic and those that fed more often on livestock. Aggregated feeding patterns observed across Australia were not explained by intrinsic variables such as mosquito genetics or larval habitats. We discuss the implications for disease transmission by vector mosquito species classified as generalist-feeders (such as Aedes vigilax and Culex annulirostris), or specialists (such as Aedes aegypti) in light of potential influences on mosquito host choice. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, we find that whilst existing blood meal studies in Australia are useful for investigating mosquito feeding patterns, standardisation of blood meal study methodologies and analyses, including the incorporation of vertebrate surveys, would improve predictions of the impact of vector-host interactions on disease ecology. Our analysis can also be used as a framework to explore mosquito-vertebrate associations, in which host availability data is unavailable, in other global systems.