Real-time surveillance of severe acute respiratory infections in Scottish hospitals: an electronic register-based approach, 2017-2022.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of routine syndromic surveillance of respiratory infections, specifically new cases of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). This surveillance often relies on questionnaires carried out by research nurses or transcriptions of doctor's notes, but existing, routinely collected electronic healthcare data sets are increasingly being used for such surveillance. We investigated how patient diagnosis codes, recorded within such data sets, could be used to capture SARI trends in Scotland. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective observational study using electronic healthcare data sets between 2017 and 2022. METHODS: Sensitive, specific and timely case definition (CDs) based on patient diagnosis codes contained within national registers in Scotland were proposed to identify SARI cases. Representativeness and sensitivity analyses were performed to assess how well SARI cases captured by each definition matched trends in historic influenza and SARS-CoV-2 data. RESULTS: All CDs accurately captured the peaks seen in laboratory-confirmed positive influenza and SARS-CoV-2 data, although the completeness of patient diagnosis records was discovered to vary widely. The timely CD provided the earliest detection of changes in SARI activity, whilst the sensitive CD provided insight into the burden and severity of SARI infections. CONCLUSIONS: A universal SARI surveillance system has been developed and demonstrated to accurately capture seasonal SARI trends. It can be used as an indicator of emerging secondary care burden of emerging SARI outbreaks. The system further strengthens Scotland's existing strategies for respiratory surveillance, and the methods described here can be applied within any country with suitable electronic patient records.

Informing the public health response to COVID-19: a systematic review of risk factors for disease, severity, and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has challenged public health agencies globally. In order to effectively target government responses, it is critical to identify the individuals most at risk of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), developing severe clinical signs, and mortality. We undertook a systematic review of the literature to present the current status of scientific knowledge in these areas and describe the need for unified global approaches, moving forwards, as well as lessons learnt for future pandemics. METHODS: Medline, Embase and Global Health were searched to the end of April 2020, as well as the Web of Science. Search terms were specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19. Comparative studies of risk factors from any setting, population group and in any language were included. Titles, abstracts and full texts were screened by two reviewers and extracted in duplicate into a standardised form. Data were extracted on risk factors for COVID-19 disease, severe disease, or death and were narratively and descriptively synthesised. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and thirty-eight papers were identified post-deduplication. Thirty-three met our inclusion criteria, of which 26 were from China. Six assessed the risk of contracting the disease, 20 the risk of having severe disease and ten the risk of dying. Age, gender and co-morbidities were commonly assessed as risk factors. The weight of evidence showed increasing age to be associated with severe disease and mortality, and general comorbidities with mortality. Only seven studies presented multivariable analyses and power was generally limited. A wide range of definitions were used for disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: The volume of literature generated in the short time since the appearance of SARS-CoV-2 has been considerable. Many studies have sought to document the risk factors for COVID-19 disease, disease severity and mortality; age was the only risk factor based on robust studies and with a consistent body of evidence. Mechanistic studies are required to understand why age is such an important risk factor. At the start of pandemics, large, standardised, studies that use multivariable analyses are urgently needed so that the populations most at risk can be rapidly protected. REGISTRATION: This review was registered on PROSPERO as CRD42020177714 .