Game-theoretic agent-based modelling of micro-level conflict: Evidence from the ISIS-Kurdish war.

This article delves into the dynamics of a dyadic political violence case study in Rojava, Northern Syria, focusing on the conflict between Kurdish rebels and ISIS from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019. We employ agent-based modelling and a formalisation of the conflict as an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game. The study provides a nuanced understanding of conflict dynamics in a highly volatile region, focusing on microdynamics of an intense dyadic strategic interaction between two near-equally- powered actors. The choice of using a model based on the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, though a classical approach, offers substantial insights due to its ability to model dyadic, equally-matched strategic interactions in conflict scenarios effectively. The investigation primarily reveals that shifts in territorial control are more critical than geographical or temporal factors in determining the conflict's course. Further, the study observes that the conflict is characterised by periods of predominantly one-sided violence. This pattern underscores that the distribution of attacks, and target choices are a more telling indicator of the conflict nature than specific behavioural patterns of the actors involved. Such a conclusion aligns with the strategic implications of the underlying model, which emphasises the outcome of interactions based on differing aggression levels. This research not only sheds light on the conflict in Rojava but also reaffirms the relevance of this type of game-theoretical approach in contemporary conflict analysis.

Precise time-matching in chimpanzee allogrooming does not occur after a short delay.

Allogrooming is a key aspect of chimpanzee sociality and many studies have investigated the role of reciprocity in a biological market. One theoretical form of reciprocity is time-matching, where payback consists of an equal duration of effort (e.g. twenty seconds of grooming repaid with twenty seconds of grooming). Here, we report a study of allogrooming in a group of twenty-six captive chimpanzees (Chester Zoo, UK), based on more than 150 hours of data. For analysis, we introduce a methodological innovation called the "Delta scale", which unidimensionally measures the accuracy of time-matching according to the extent of delay after the cessation of grooming. Delta is positive when reciprocation occurs after any non-zero delay (e.g. A grooms B and then B grooms A after a five second break) and it is negative when reciprocation begins whilst the original grooming has not yet ceased. Using a generalized linear mixed-method, we found evidence for time-matched reciprocation. However, this was true only for immediate reciprocation (Delta less than zero). If there was a temporal break in grooming between two members of a dyad, then there was no evidence that chimpanzees were using new bouts to retroactively correct for time-matching imbalances from previous bouts. Our results have implications for some of the cognitive constraints that differentiate real-life reciprocation from abstract theoretical models. Furthermore, we suggest that some apparent patterns of time-matched reciprocity may arise merely due to the law of large numbers, and we introduce a statistical test which takes this into account when aggregating grooming durations over a window of time.

Correction: The Effect of Timing and Frequency of Push Notifications on Usage of a Smartphone-Based Stress Management Intervention: An Exploratory Trial.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169162.].

Predicting the temporal activity patterns of new venues.

Estimating revenue and business demand of a newly opened venue is paramount as these early stages often involve critical decisions such as first rounds of staffing and resource allocation. Traditionally, this estimation has been performed through coarse-grained measures such as observing numbers in local venues or venues at similar places (e.g., coffee shops around another station in the same city). The advent of crowdsourced data from devices and services carried by individuals on a daily basis has opened up the possibility of performing better predictions of temporal visitation patterns for locations and venues. In this paper, using mobility data from Foursquare, a location-centric platform, we treat venue categories as proxies for urban activities and analyze how they become popular over time. The main contribution of this work is a prediction framework able to use characteristic temporal signatures of places together with k-nearest neighbor metrics capturing similarities among urban regions, to forecast weekly popularity dynamics of a new venue establishment in a city neighborhood. We further show how we are able to forecast the popularity of the new venue after one month following its opening by using locality and temporal similarity as features. For the evaluation of our approach we focus on London. We show that temporally similar areas of the city can be successfully used as inputs of predictions of the visit patterns of new venues, with an improvement of 41% compared to a random selection of wards as a training set for the prediction task. We apply these concepts of temporally similar areas and locality to the real-time predictions related to new venues and show that these features can effectively be used to predict the future trends of a venue. Our findings have the potential to impact the design of location-based technologies and decisions made by new business owners.

The Effect of Timing and Frequency of Push Notifications on Usage of a Smartphone-Based Stress Management Intervention: An Exploratory Trial.

Push notifications offer a promising strategy for enhancing engagement with smartphone-based health interventions. Intelligent sensor-driven machine learning models may improve the timeliness of notifications by adapting delivery to a user's current context (e.g. location). This exploratory mixed-methods study examined the potential impact of timing and frequency on notification response and usage of Healthy Mind, a smartphone-based stress management intervention. 77 participants were randomised to use one of three versions of Healthy Mind that provided: intelligent notifications; daily notifications within pre-defined time frames; or occasional notifications within pre-defined time frames. Notification response and Healthy Mind usage were automatically recorded. Telephone interviews explored participants' experiences of using Healthy Mind. Participants in the intelligent and daily conditions viewed (d = .47, .44 respectively) and actioned (d = .50, .43 respectively) more notifications compared to the occasional group. Notification group had no meaningful effects on percentage of notifications viewed or usage of Healthy Mind. No meaningful differences were indicated between the intelligent and non-intelligent groups. Our findings suggest that frequent notifications may encourage greater exposure to intervention content without deterring engagement, but adaptive tailoring of notification timing does not always enhance their use. Hypotheses generated from this study require testing in future work. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN67177737.

Are you getting sick? Predicting influenza-like symptoms using human mobility behaviors.

Understanding and modeling the mobility of individuals is of paramount importance for public health. In particular, mobility characterization is key to predict the spatial and temporal diffusion of human-transmitted infections. However, the mobility behavior of a person can also reveal relevant information about her/his health conditions. In this paper, we study the impact of people mobility behaviors for predicting the future presence of flu-like and cold symptoms (i.e. fever, sore throat, cough, shortness of breath, headache, muscle pain, malaise, and cold). To this end, we use the mobility traces from mobile phones and the daily self-reported flu-like and cold symptoms of 29 individuals from February 20, 2013 to March 21, 2013. First of all, we demonstrate that daily symptoms of an individual can be predicted by using his/her mobility trace characteristics (e.g. total displacement, radius of gyration, number of unique visited places, etc.). Then, we present and validate models that are able to successfully predict the future presence of symptoms by analyzing the mobility patterns of our individuals. The proposed methodology could have a societal impact opening the way to customized mobile phone applications, which may detect and suggest to the user specific actions in order to prevent disease spreading and minimize the risk of contagion.

Spatio-temporal networks: reachability, centrality and robustness.

Recent advances in spatial and temporal networks have enabled researchers to more-accurately describe many real-world systems such as urban transport networks. In this paper, we study the response of real-world spatio-temporal networks to random error and systematic attack, taking a unified view of their spatial and temporal performance. We propose a model of spatio-temporal paths in time-varying spatially embedded networks which captures the property that, as in many real-world systems, interaction between nodes is non-instantaneous and governed by the space in which they are embedded. Through numerical experiments on three real-world urban transport systems, we study the effect of node failure on a network's topological, temporal and spatial structure. We also demonstrate the broader applicability of this framework to three other classes of network. To identify weaknesses specific to the behaviour of a spatio-temporal system, we introduce centrality measures that evaluate the importance of a node as a structural bridge and its role in supporting spatio-temporally efficient flows through the network. This exposes the complex nature of fragility in a spatio-temporal system, showing that there is a variety of failure modes when a network is subject to systematic attacks.

A multilayer approach to multiplexity and link prediction in online geo-social networks.

Online social systems are multiplex in nature as multiple links may exist between the same two users across different social media. In this work, we study the geo-social properties of multiplex links, spanning more than one social network and apply their structural and interaction features to the problem of link prediction across social networking services. Exploring the intersection of two popular online platforms - Twitter and location-based social network Foursquare - we represent the two together as a composite multilayer online social network, where each platform represents a layer in the network. We find that pairs of users connected on both services, have greater neighbourhood similarity and are more similar in terms of their social and spatial properties on both platforms in comparison with pairs who are connected on just one of the social networks. Our evaluation, which aims to shed light on the implications of multiplexity for the link generation process, shows that we can successfully predict links across social networking services. In addition, we also show how combining information from multiple heterogeneous networks in a multilayer configuration can provide new insights into user interactions on online social networks, and can significantly improve link prediction systems with valuable applications to social bootstrapping and friend recommendations.

Explaining the power-law distribution of human mobility through transportation modality decomposition.

Human mobility has been empirically observed to exhibit Lévy flight characteristics and behaviour with power-law distributed jump size. The fundamental mechanisms behind this behaviour has not yet been fully explained. In this paper, we propose to explain the Lévy walk behaviour observed in human mobility patterns by decomposing them into different classes according to the different transportation modes, such as Walk/Run, Bike, Train/Subway or Car/Taxi/Bus. Our analysis is based on two real-life GPS datasets containing approximately 10 and 20 million GPS samples with transportation mode information. We show that human mobility can be modelled as a mixture of different transportation modes, and that these single movement patterns can be approximated by a lognormal distribution rather than a power-law distribution. Then, we demonstrate that the mixture of the decomposed lognormal flight distributions associated with each modality is a power-law distribution, providing an explanation to the emergence of Lévy Walk patterns that characterize human mobility patterns.

Components in time-varying graphs.

Real complex systems are inherently time-varying. Thanks to new communication systems and novel technologies, today it is possible to produce and analyze social and biological networks with detailed information on the time of occurrence and duration of each link. However, standard graph metrics introduced so far in complex network theory are mainly suited for static graphs, i.e., graphs in which the links do not change over time, or graphs built from time-varying systems by aggregating all the links as if they were concurrent in time. In this paper, we extend the notion of connectedness, and the definitions of node and graph components, to the case of time-varying graphs, which are represented as time-ordered sequences of graphs defined over a fixed set of nodes. We show that the problem of finding strongly connected components in a time-varying graph can be mapped into the problem of discovering the maximal-cliques in an opportunely constructed static graph, which we name the affine graph. It is, therefore, an NP-complete problem. As a practical example, we have performed a temporal component analysis of time-varying graphs constructed from three data sets of human interactions. The results show that taking time into account in the definition of graph components allows to capture important features of real systems. In particular, we observe a large variability in the size of node temporal in- and out-components. This is due to intrinsic fluctuations in the activity patterns of individuals, which cannot be detected by static graph analysis.