Phytophthora Species Detected in Two Ozark Forests with Unusual Patterns of White Oak Mortality.

Widespread decline and mortality of white oaks (Quercus alba) occurred in Missouri Ozark forests between 2011 and 2017. Symptoms included rapid crown death with bronzing of leaves, retention of dead leaves, crown dieback and thinning, and loss of large limbs within one year of death. Decline and mortality were associated with hillside drainages and fit descriptions of European oak forests predisposed to decline by pathogenic Phytophthora species. A survey was performed at two locations in 2014 and 2015 to assess the distribution of dead and declining white oaks, and the occurrence and distribution of Phytophthora species. Multiple Phytophthora species were detected, including P. cinnamomi, P. cactorum, P. europaea, and P. pini. P. cinnamomi was the most common and widely distributed species among plots at both locations. The detection of P. cinnamomi at the base of white oaks was not associated with poor crown vigor. However, more quantitative survey techniques are necessary to clearly evaluate this relationship. P. cinnamomi kills fine roots of white and red oaks in North America and has been associated with the decline of white oaks in the United States (Ohio) and other countries. Further studies are needed to determine the importance of P. cinnamomi in oak decline within the Ozark highlands.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature.

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature.

More than Drought: Precipitation Variance, Excessive Wetness, Pathogens and the Future of the Western Edge of the Eastern Deciduous Forest.

For many regions of the Earth, anthropogenic climate change is expected to result in increasingly divergent climate extremes. However, little is known about how increasing climate variance may affect ecosystem productivity. Forest ecosystems may be particularly susceptible to this problem considering the complex organizational structure of specialized species niche adaptations. Forest decline is often attributable to multiple stressors including prolonged heat, wildfire and insect outbreaks. These disturbances, often categorized as megadisturbances, can push temperate forests beyond sustainability thresholds. Absent from much of the contemporary forest health literature, however, is the discussion of excessive precipitation that may affect other disturbances synergistically or that might represent a principal stressor. Here, specific points of evidence are provided including historic climatology, variance predictions from global change modeling, Midwestern paleo climate data, local climate influences on net ecosystem exchange and productivity, and pathogen influences on oak mortality. Data sources reveal potential trends, deserving further investigation, indicating that the western edge of the Eastern Deciduous forest may be impacted by ongoing increased precipitation, precipitation variance and excessive wetness. Data presented, in conjunction with recent regional forest health concerns, suggest that climate variance including drought and excessive wetness should be equally considered for forest ecosystem resilience against increasingly dynamic climate. This communication serves as an alert to the need for studies on potential impacts of increasing climate variance and excessive wetness in forest ecosystem health and productivity in the Midwest US and similar forest ecosystems globally.

Interactive effects of harvest and deer herbivory on the population dynamics of American ginseng.

Few demographic models for any species consider the role of multiple, interacting ecological threats. Many forest herbs are heavily browsed by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and a number of these are also harvested for the medicinal, floral, or horticultural trades. Previous studies of the viability of American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius) have separately examined the effects of harvesting and deer herbivory. We followed individually marked ginseng plants in 6 populations for 8 years and documented deer browse levels, conducted helicopter surveys to estimate the deer herd size, and documented 2 ginseng harvests. We used this long-term data set to develop a stochastic demographic model that quantified the separate and interactive role of these threats to ginseng viability. Although harvesting and deer herbivory negatively affected ginseng population growth, their effects were not additive. Deer herbivory negatively affected population growth in the absence but not in the presence of harvesting. Life table response experiments revealed that in the presence of harvesting, deer herbivory had some positive effects on vital rates because browsed plants were less apparent to harvesters. Ginseng populations that were harvested responsibly (i.e., planting seeds from harvested individuals) had higher growth rates than those that were harvested irresponsibly. We concluded that both deer populations and harvesting must be managed to ensure sustainable populations of American ginseng. Our findings underscore the importance of long-term monitoring to assess threats to viability and the need for a broad ecological understanding of the complexity of ecosystem management.