Disclosure to HIV-seropositive children in rural Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Care of children living with HIV comprises various issues, some considered challenging. One of the challenging areas is the serostatus disclosure to HIV-positive children. This study describes the current situation of HIV disclosure among rural children in Zambia and examines the socio-demographic factors promoting disclosure. METHODS: We used a mixed method approach applying both quantitative and qualitative methods to obtain comprehensive picture of HIV serostatus disclosure for children. Data were collected in Mumbwa district, Zambia (2010-2012), included 57 clinical records of children older than 5 years old. We examined children's age, gender, and cohabitation status with their parents, caregivers' level of education and income, and the relation between children and caregivers. Logistic regression model was applied to examine associations between disclosure and socio-demographic characteristics. Semi-structured interviews with 50 caregivers and 22 HIV-positive children were conducted to qualitatively investigate attitude towards disclosure and support needed. RESULTS: Full disclosure was completed in 17 out of 57 (29.8%) patients. Median ages of patients in disclosed group and non-disclosed group were 10 and 9, respectively (IQR 8.0-13.0, 7.0-11.25). In univariate analyses, older age and male gender has positive relation to the completion of serostatus disclosure. In logistic regression models, cohabitation status with patients' mothers showed positive correlation to the completion of serostatus disclosure. In the interviews with caregivers, all caregivers said that disclosure of serostatus is a necessary process and good for their children, while actual serostatus disclosure rate was low. CONCLUSION: Serostatus disclosure to HIV-seropositive children is not prevalent in Rural Zambia. Although further researches would be desirable, increased support to caregivers would be beneficial.

Translating Technical Support Into Country Action: The Role of the Interagency Task Team on the Prevention and Treatment of HIV Infection in Pregnant Women, Mothers, and Children in the Global Plan Era.

While the Interagency Task Team on the Prevention and Treatment of HIV Infection in Pregnant Women, Mothers, and Children (IATT) partnership existed before the Global Plan Towards the Elimination of New HIV Infections Among Children by 2015 and Keeping Their Mothers Alive (Global Plan), its reconfiguration was critical to coordinating provision of technical assistance that positively influenced country decision-making and program performance. This article describes how the Global Plan anchored the work of the IATT and, in turn, how the IATT's technical assistance helped to accelerate achievement of the Global Plan targets and milestones. The technical assistance that will be discussed addressed a broad range of priority actions and milestones described in the Global Plan: (1) planning for and implementing Option B+; (2) strengthening monitoring and evaluation systems; (3) translating evidence into action and advocacy; and (4) promoting community engagement. This article also reviews the ongoing challenges and opportunities of providing technical assistance in a rapidly evolving environment that calls for ever more flexible and contextualized responses. The effectiveness of technical assistance facilitated by the IATT was defined by its timeliness, evidence base, and unique global perspective that built on the competencies of its partners and promoted synergies across program areas. Reaching the final goal of eliminating vertical transmission of HIV infection and achieving an AIDS-free generation in countries with the highest HIV burden requires that the IATT partnership and technical assistance remain responsive to country-specific needs while aligning with the current programmatic reality and new global goals such as the Sustainable Development Goals and 90-90-90 targets.

Quality improvement intervention to increase adherence to ART prescription policy at HIV treatment clinics in Lusaka, Zambia: A cluster randomized trial.

INTRODUCTION: In urban areas, crowded HIV treatment facilities with long patient wait times can deter patients from attending their clinical appointments and picking up their medications, ultimately disrupting patient care and compromising patient retention and adherence. METHODS: Formative research at eight facilities in Lusaka revealed that only 46% of stable HIV treatment patients were receiving a three-month refill supply of antiretroviral drugs, despite it being national policy for stable adult patients. We designed a quality improvement intervention to improve the operationalization of this policy. We conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial in sixteen facilities in Lusaka with the primary objective of examining the intervention's impact on the proportion of stable patients receiving three-month refills. The secondary objective was examining whether the quality improvement intervention reduced facility congestion measured through two proxy indicators: daily volume of clinic visits and average clinic wait times for services. RESULTS: The mean change in the proportion of three-month refills among control facilities from baseline to endline was 10% (from 38% to 48%), compared to a 25% mean change (an increase from 44% to 69%) among intervention facilities. This represents a significant 15% mean difference (95% CI: 2%-29%; P = 0.03) in the change in proportion of patients receiving three-month refills. On average, control facilities had 15 more visits per day in the endline than in the baseline, while intervention facilities had 20 fewer visits per day in endline than in baseline, a mean difference of 35 fewer visits per day (P = 0.1). The change in the mean facility total wait time for intervention facilities dropped 19 minutes between baseline and endline when compared to control facilities (95% CI: -10.2-48.5; P = 0.2). CONCLUSION: A more patient-centred service delivery schedule of three-month prescription refills for stable patients is viable. We encourage the expansion of this sustainable intervention in Zambia's urban clinics.

A Cluster Randomised Trial on the Impact of Integrating Early Infant HIV Diagnosis with the Expanded Programme on Immunization on Immunization and HIV Testing Rates in Rural Health Facilities in Southern Zambia.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the integration of early infant HIV diagnosis with the expanded programme for immunization in a rural Zambian setting with the aim of determining whether infant and postpartum maternal HIV testing rates would increase without harming immunization uptake. METHODS: In an unblinded, location stratified, cluster randomised controlled trial, 60 facilities in Zambia's Southern Province were equally allocated to a control group, Simple Intervention group that received a sensitization meeting and the resupply of HIV testing commodities in the event of a stock-out, and a Comprehensive Intervention group that received the Simple Intervention as well as on-site operational support to facilitate the integration of HIV testing services with EPI. FINDINGS: The average change in number of first dose diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus vaccine (DPT1) provided per month, per facility was approximately 0.86 doses higher [90% confidence interval (CI) -1.40, 3.12] in Comprehensive Intervention facilities compared to the combined average change in the Simple Intervention and control facilities. The interventions resulted in a 16.6% [90% CI: -7%, 46%, P-value = 0.26] and 10% [90% CI: -10%, 36%, P-value = 0.43] greater change in average monthly infant DBS testing compared to control for the Simple and Comprehensive facilities respectively. We also found 15.76 (90% CI: 7.12, 24.41, P-value < 0.01) and 10.93 (90% CI: 1.52, 20.33, P-value = 0.06) additional total maternal re-tests over baseline for the Simple and Comprehensive Facilities respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides strong evidence to support Zambia's policy of integration of HIV testing and EPI services. Actions in line with the interventions, including HIV testing material supply reinforcement, can increase HIV testing rates without harming immunization uptake. In response, Zambia's Ministry of Health issued a memo to remind health facilities to provide HIV testing at under-five clinics and to include under-five HIV testing as part of district performance assessments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02479659.

Health outcomes and cost impact of the new WHO 2013 guidelines on prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Countries are currently progressing towards the elimination of new paediatric HIV infections by 2015. WHO published new consolidated guidelines in June 2013, which now recommend either 'Antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) for women living with HIV during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B)' or 'Lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all pregnant and breastfeeding women living with HIV (Option B+)', while de facto phasing out Option A. This study examined health outcomes and cost impact of the shift to WHO 2013 recommendations in Zambia. METHODS: A decision analytic model was developed based on the national health system perspective. Estimated risk and number of cases of HIV transmission to infants and to serodiscordant partners, and proportions of HIV-infected pregnant women with CD4 count of ≤350 cells/mm3 to initiate ART were compared between 2010 Option A and the 2013 recommendations. Total costs of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) services per annual cohort of pregnant women, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per infection averted and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained were examined. RESULTS: Our analysis suggested that the shift from 2010 Option A to the 2013 guidelines would result in a 33% reduction of the risk of HIV transmission among exposed infants. The risk of transmission to serodiscordant partners for a period of 24 months would be reduced by 72% with 'ARVs during pregnancy and breastfeeding' and further reduced by 15% with 'Lifelong ART'. The probability of HIV-infected pregnant women to initiate ART would increase by 80%. It was also suggested that while the shift would generate higher PMTCT costs, it would be cost-saving in the long term as it spares future treatment costs by preventing infections in infants and partners. CONCLUSION: The shift to the WHO 2013 guidelines in Zambia would positively impact health of family and save future costs related to care and treatment.

Effect of baseline renal function on tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy outcomes in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Although tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) use has increased as part of first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) across sub-Saharan Africa, renal outcomes among patients receiving TDF remain poorly understood. We assessed changes in renal function and mortality in patients starting TDF- or non-TDF-containing ART in Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: We included patients aged ≥16 years who started ART from 2007 onward, with documented baseline weight and serum creatinine. Renal dysfunction was categorized as mild (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], 60-89 mL/min), moderate (30-59 mL/min), or severe (<30 mL/min) according to the chronic kidney disease-epidemiology (CKD-EPI) formula. Differences in eGFR during ART were analyzed using linear mixed-effect models. The odds of developing moderate or severe eGFR decrease and mortality were assessed using logistic and competing risk regression, respectively. RESULTS: We included 62 230 adults, of which 38 716 (62.2%) initiated a TDF-based regimen. The proportion with moderate or severe renal dysfunction at baseline was lower in the TDF than in the non-TDF group (1.9% vs 4.0%). Among patients with no or mild renal dysfunction, those receiving TDF were more likely to develop moderate (adjusted odds ratio, 3.11; 95% confidence interval, 2.52-3.87) or severe (2.43; 1.80-3.28) eGFR decrease, although the incidence in such episodes was low. Among patients with moderate or severe renal dysfunction at baseline, renal function improved independently of ART regimen, and mortality rates were similar in both treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: TDF use did not attenuate renal function recovery or increase the mortality rate in patients with renal dysfunction. Further studies are needed to determine the role of routine renal function monitoring before and during ART use in Africa.

Immunodeficiency at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC), and high-income (HIC) countries. METHODS: Patients aged 16 years or older starting cART in a clinic participating in a multicohort collaboration spanning 6 continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multilevel linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender, and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed. RESULTS: In total, 379,865 patients from 9 LIC, 4 LMIC, 4 UMIC, and 6 HIC were included. In LIC, the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/µL between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC, and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/µL (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/µL (53%), and 209 to 274 cells/µL (31%). In 2009, compared with LIC, median counts were 13 cells/µL [95% confidence interval (CI): -56 to +30] lower in LMIC, 22 cells/µL (-62 to +18) lower in UMIC, and 112 cells/µL (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/µL (95% CI: +18 to +28 cells/µL) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/µL (95% CI: +35 to +141 cells/µL) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared with countries with <40% coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Median CD4 cell counts at the start of cART increased 2000-2009 but remained below 200 cells/µL in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/µL in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

Self-reported dietary intake and appetite predict early treatment outcome among low-BMI adults initiating HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: Low BMI is a major risk factor for early mortality among HIV-infected persons starting antiretrovial therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa and the common patient belief that antiretroviral medications produce distressing levels of hunger is a barrier to treatment adherence. We assessed relationships between appetite, dietary intake and treatment outcome 12 weeks after ART initiation among HIV-infected adults with advanced malnutrition and immunosuppression. DESIGN: A prospective, observational cohort study. Dietary intake was assessed using a 24 h recall survey. The relationships of appetite, intake and treatment outcome were analysed using time-varying Cox models. SETTING: A public-sector HIV clinic in Lusaka, Zambia. SUBJECTS: One hundred and forty-two HIV-infected adults starting ART with BMI <16 kg/m2 and/or CD4+ lymphocyte count <50 cells/µl. RESULTS: Median age, BMI and CD4+ lymphocyte count were 32 years, 16 kg/m2 and 34 cells/µl, respectively. Twenty-five participants (18%) died before 12 weeks and another thirty-three (23%) were lost to care. A 500 kJ/d higher energy intake at any time after ART initiation was associated with an approximate 16% reduction in the hazard of death (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.84; P = 0.01), but the relative contribution of carbohydrate, protein or fat to total energy was not a significant predictor of outcome. Appetite normalized gradually among survivors and hunger was rarely reported. CONCLUSIONS: Poor early ART outcomes were strikingly high in a cohort of HIV-infected adults with advanced malnutrition and mortality was predicted by lower dietary intake. Intervention trials to promote post-ART intake in this population may benefit survival and are warranted.

Six-month hemoglobin concentration and its association with subsequent mortality among adults on antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka, Zambia.

Little is known about changes in hemoglobin concentration early in the course of antiretroviral therapy and its subsequent relation to survival. We analyzed data for 40,410 HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka, Zambia. Our main exposure of interest was 6-month hemoglobin, but we stratified our analysis by baseline hemoglobin to allow for potential effect modification. Patients with a 6-month hemoglobin <8.5 g/dL, regardless of baseline, had the highest hazard for death after 6 months (hazard ratio: 4.5; 95% confidence interval: 3.3 to 6.3). Future work should look to identify causes of anemia in settings such as ours and evaluate strategies for more timely diagnosis and treatment.

Effectiveness of generic and proprietary first-line anti-retroviral regimens in a primary health care setting in Lusaka, Zambia: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although generic anti-retroviral drugs are in common use throughout the developing world, studies comparing their clinical effectiveness with that of proprietary formulations are lacking. METHODS: We analysed observational data from a large cohort of adults on anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to assess potential differences between generic and proprietary zidovudine (ZDV) formulations in post-90-day mortality, 'programme failure' (a composite of death, follow-up losses and withdrawals) and other clinical outcomes. We accounted for drug exposure in three ways: an 'initial dispensation' approach that categorized patients according to the first prescription; 'time-varying' approach that attributed an outcome to the formulation taken at the time of event; and 'predominant exposure' approach that considered only those with >75% exposure to either brand or generic ZDV. Proprietary formulations were used as the reference group in all adjusted Cox proportional hazard regressions. RESULTS: Among 14 736 patients eligible for analysis, 7277 (49%) initiated a generic formulation of ZDV and 7459 (51%) initiated a proprietary formulation. When categorized according to initial dispensation, no difference in post-90-day mortality was observed between the two groups [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.77-1.12]. Similar findings were noted when drug formulation was treated as a time-varying exposure (AHR: 1.15, 95% CI: 0.89-1.48) when analysis was limited to those with a predominant exposure to one formulation or the other (AHR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.24-1.49). Results were consistent across all approaches when programme failure was considered as an outcome. No longitudinal differences were detected between formulations for CD4 response, weight change and haemoglobin concentration. Generic ZDV formulations were associated with slight decreases in single-drug substitution. CONCLUSIONS: In this large programmatic cohort of adults starting ZDV-based first-line therapy, clinical outcomes appeared similar among patients on generic or proprietary formulations. These findings support continued use of generic anti-retroviral drug formulations in resource-constrained settings.

Taking ART to scale: determinants of the cost and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy in 45 clinical sites in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the unit costs and cost-effectiveness of a government ART program in 45 sites in Zambia supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research Zambia (CIDRZ). METHODS: We estimated per person-year costs at the facility level, and support costs incurred above the facility level and used multiple regression to estimate variation in these costs. To estimate ART effectiveness, we compared mortality in this Zambian population to that of a cohort of rural Ugandan HIV patients receiving co-trimoxazole (CTX) prophylaxis. We used micro-costing techniques to estimate incremental unit costs, and calculated cost-effectiveness ratios with a computer model which projected results to 10 years. RESULTS: The program cost $69.7 million for 125,436 person-years of ART, or $556 per ART-year. Compared to CTX prophylaxis alone, the program averted 33.3 deaths or 244.5 disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 person-years of ART. In the base-case analysis, the net cost per DALY averted was $833 compared to CTX alone. More than two-thirds of the variation in average incremental total and on-site cost per patient-year of treatment is explained by eight determinants, including the complexity of the patient-case load, the degree of adherence among the patients, and institutional characteristics including, experience, scale, scope, setting and sector. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The 45 sites exhibited substantial variation in unit costs and cost-effectiveness and are in the mid-range of cost-effectiveness when compared to other ART programs studied in southern Africa. Early treatment initiation, large scale, and hospital setting, are associated with statistically significantly lower costs, while others (rural location, private sector) are associated with shifting cost from on- to off-site. This study shows that ART programs can be significantly less costly or more cost-effective when they exploit economies of scale and scope, and initiate patients at higher CD4 counts.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. METHODS AND FINDINGS: HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004-2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥ 350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Universal definition of loss to follow-up in HIV treatment programs: a statistical analysis of 111 facilities in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

BACKGROUND: Although patient attrition is recognized as a threat to the long-term success of antiretroviral therapy programs worldwide, there is no universal definition for classifying patients as lost to follow-up (LTFU). We analyzed data from health facilities across Africa, Asia, and Latin America to empirically determine a standard LTFU definition. METHODS AND FINDINGS: At a set "status classification" date, patients were categorized as either "active" or "LTFU" according to different intervals from time of last clinic encounter. For each threshold, we looked forward 365 d to assess the performance and accuracy of this initial classification. The best-performing definition for LTFU had the lowest proportion of patients misclassified as active or LTFU. Observational data from 111 health facilities-representing 180,718 patients from 19 countries-were included in this study. In the primary analysis, for which data from all facilities were pooled, an interval of 180 d (95% confidence interval [CI]: 173-181 d) since last patient encounter resulted in the fewest misclassifications (7.7%, 95% CI: 7.6%-7.8%). A secondary analysis that gave equal weight to cohorts and to regions generated a similar result (175 d); however, an alternate approach that used inverse weighting for cohorts based on variance and equal weighting for regions produced a slightly lower summary measure (150 d). When examined at the facility level, the best-performing definition varied from 58 to 383 d (mean=150 d), but when a standard definition of 180 d was applied to each facility, only slight increases in misclassification (mean=1.2%, 95% CI: 1.0%-1.5%) were observed. Using this definition, the proportion of patients classified as LTFU by facility ranged from 3.1% to 45.1% (mean=19.9%, 95% CI: 19.1%-21.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Based on this evaluation, we recommend the adoption of ≥180 d since the last clinic visit as a standard LTFU definition. Such standardization is an important step to understanding the reasons that underlie patient attrition and establishing more reliable and comparable program evaluation worldwide. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Comparative outcomes of tenofovir-based and zidovudine-based antiretroviral therapy regimens in Lusaka, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Although tenofovir (TDF) is a common component of antiretroviral therapy (ART), recent evidence suggests inferior outcomes when it is combined with nevirapine (NVP). METHODS: We compared outcomes among patients initiating TDF + emtricitabine or lamivudine (XTC) + NVP, TDF + XTC + efavirenz (EFV), zidovudine (ZDV) + lamuvidine (3TC) + NVP, and ZDV + 3TC + EFV. We categorized drug exposure by initial ART dispensation by a time-varying analysis that accounted for drug substitutions and by predominant exposure (>75% of drug dispensations) during an initial window period. Risks for death and program failure were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. All regimens were compared with ZDV + 3TC + NVP. RESULTS: Between July 2007 and November 2010, 18,866 treatment-naive adults initiated ART: 18.2% on ZDV + 3TC + NVP, 1.8% on ZDV + 3TC + EFV, 36.2% on TDF + XTC + NVP, and 43.8% on TDF + XTC + EFV. When exposure was categorized by initial prescription, patients on TDF + XTC + NVP [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03 to 2.06] had a higher post-90-day mortality. TDF + XTC + NVP was also associated with an elevated risk for mortality when exposure was categorized as time-varying (AHR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.95) or by predominant exposure over the first 90 days (AHR: 1.91, 95% CI: 1.09 to 3.34). However, these findings were not consistently observed across sensitivity analyses or when program failure was used as a secondary outcome. CONCLUSION: TDF + XTC + NVP was associated with higher mortality when compared with ZDV + 3TC + NVP but not consistently across sensitivity analyses. These findings may be explained in part by inherent limitations to our retrospective approach, including residual confounding. Further research is urgently needed to compare the effectiveness of ART regimens in use in resource-constrained settings.

Nutrition and inflammation serum biomarkers are associated with 12-week mortality among malnourished adults initiating antiretroviral therapy in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: A low body mass index (BMI) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is a strong predictor of mortality among HIV-infected adults in resource-constrained settings. The relationship between nutrition and inflammation-related serum biomarkers and early treatment outcomes (e.g., less than 90 days) in this population is not well described. METHODS: An observational cohort of 142 HIV-infected adults in Lusaka, Zambia, with BMI under 16 kg/m2 or CD4+ lymphocyte counts of less than 50 cells/mm3, or both, was followed prospectively during the first 12 weeks of ART. Baseline and serial post-treatment phosphate, albumin, ferritin and highly sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) serum levels were measured. The primary outcome was mortality. RESULTS: Lower baseline phosphate and albumin serum levels, and higher ferritin and hsCRP, were significantly associated with mortality prior to 12 weeks (p<0.05 for all comparisons), independent of known risk factors for early ART-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. The time-dependent interval change in albumin was associated with mortality after adjusting for the baseline value (AHR 0.62 [0.43, 0.89] per 5 g/L increase), but changes in the other biomarkers were not. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of serum biomarkers for early mortality in a cohort of adults with malnutrition and advanced HIV in a resource-constrained setting was primarily driven by pre-treatment values, rather than post-ART changes. Interventions to promote earlier HIV diagnosis and treatment, address nutritional deficiencies, and identify the etiologies of increased systemic inflammation may improve ART outcomes in this vulnerable population.

An empirical approach to defining loss to follow-up among patients enrolled in antiretroviral treatment programs.

In many programs providing antiretroviral therapy (ART), clinicians report substantial patient attrition; however, there are no consensus criteria for defining patient loss to follow-up (LTFU). Data on a multisite human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment cohort in Lusaka, Zambia, were used to determine an empirical "days-late" definition of LTFU among patients on ART. Cohort members were classified as either "in care" or LTFU as of December 31, 2007, according to a range of days-late intervals. The authors then looked forward in the database to determine which patients actually returned to care at any point over the following year. The interval that best minimized LTFU misclassification was described as "best-performing." Overall, 33,704 HIV-infected adults on ART were included. Nearly one-third (n = 10,196) were at least 1 day late for an appointment. The best-performing LTFU definition was 56 days after a missed visit, which had a sensitivity of 84.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 83.2, 85.0), specificity of 97.5% (95% CI: 97.3, 97.7), and misclassification of 5.1% (95% CI: 4.8, 5.3). The 60-day threshold performed similarly well, with only a marginal difference (<0.1%) in misclassification. This analysis suggests that > or =60 days since the last appointment is a reasonable definition of LTFU. Standardization to empirically derived definitions of LTFU will permit more reliable comparisons within and across programs.

Early clinical and programmatic outcomes with tenofovir-based antiretroviral therapy in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: In July 2007, amid some controversy over cost, Zambia was the first African country to introduce tenofovir (TDF) as a component of first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) on a wide scale. METHODS: We compared drug substitutions, mortality, and "programmatic failure" among adults starting TDF-, zidovudine (ZDV)-, and stavudine (d4T)-containing ART. Programmatic failure was defined as death, withdrawal, or loss to follow-up. RESULTS: Between July 2007 and January 2009, 10,485 adults initiated ART (66% on TDF, 23% on ZDV, 11% on d4T), with a median follow-up time of 239 (interquartile range 98, 385) days. Those starting TDF were more likely to be male and more likely to have indicators of severe disease at baseline. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, ZDV- (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 2.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.30-3.28) and d4T-based regimens (AHR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.55-2.38) were associated with higher risk for drug substitution when compared with TDF-based regimens. Similar hazards were noted for overall mortality (ZDV: AHR = 0 .81, 95% CI = 0.62-1.06; d4T: AHR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.74-1.43) and programmatic failure (ZDV: AHR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.88-1.11; d4T: AHR = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.96-1.28) when compared with TDF. CONCLUSIONS: TDF is associated with similar clinical and programmatic outcomes as ZDV and d4T but appears to be better tolerated. Although further evaluation is needed, these results are encouraging and support Zambia's policy decision.

Adherence to first-line antiretroviral therapy affects non-virologic outcomes among patients on treatment for more than 12 months in Lusaka, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: High-level adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is associated with favourable patient outcomes. In resource-constrained settings, however, there are few validated measures. We examined the correlation between clinical outcomes and the medication possession ratio (MPR), a pharmacy-based measure of adherence. METHODS: We analysed data from a large programmatic cohort across 18 primary care centres providing ART in Lusaka, Zambia. Patients were stratified into three categories based on MPR-calculated adherence over the first 12 months: optimal (> or =95%), suboptimal (80-94%) and poor (<80%). RESULTS: Overall, 27 115 treatment-naïve adults initiated and continued ART for > or =12 months: 17 060 (62.9%) demonstrated optimal adherence, 7682 (28.3%) had suboptimal adherence and 2373 (8.8%) had poor adherence. When compared with those with optimal adherence, post-12-month mortality risk was similar among patients with sub-optimal adherence [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 1.0; 95% CI: 0.9-1.2] but higher in patients with poor adherence (AHR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.4-2.2). Those <80% MPR also appeared to have an attenuated CD4 response at 18 months (185 cells/microl vs 217 cells/microl; P < 0.001), 24 months (213 cells/microl vs 246 cells/microl; P < 0.001), 30 months (226 cells/microl vs 261 cells/microl; P < 0.001) and 36 months (245 cells/microl vs 275 cells/microl; P < 0.01) when compared with those above this threshold. CONCLUSIONS: MPR was predictive of clinical outcomes and immunologic response in this large public sector antiretroviral treatment program. This marker may have a role in guiding programmatic monitoring and clinical care in resource-constrained settings.