ABSTRACT
New and enhanced processes will not be the only drivers toward a sustainable chemical industry. Implementing climate policies will impact all components of the chemical supply chain over the following decades, making improvements in energy generation, material extraction, or transportation contribute to reducing the overall impacts of chemical technologies. Including this synergistic effect when comparing technologies offers a clearer vision of their future potential and may allow researchers to support their sustainability propositions more strongly. Ammonia and methanol production account for more than fifty percent of the CO2 emissions in this industry and are, therefore, excellent case studies. This work performs a prospective life cycle assessment until 2050 for fossil, blue, wind, and solar-based technologies under climate policies aiming to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C, 2 °C, or 3.5 °C. The first finding is the inability of fossil-based routes to reduce their CO2 emissions beyond 10% by 2050 without tailored decarbonisation strategies, regardless of the chemical and climate policy considered. In contrast, green routes may produce chemicals with around 90% fewer emissions than today and even with net negative emissions (on a cradle-to-gate basis), as in the case of methanol (up to -1.4 kg CO2-eq per kg), mainly due to the contributions of technology development and increasing penetration of renewable energies. Overall, the combined production of these chemicals could be net-zero by 2050 despite their predicted two to fivefold increase in demand. Lastly, we propose a roadmap for progressive implementation by 2050 of green routes in 26 regions worldwide, applying the criterion of at least 80% reduction in climate change impacts when compared to their fossil alternatives. Furthermore, an exploratory prospective techno-economic assessment showed that by 2050, green routes could become more economically attractive. This work offers quantitative arguments to reinforce research, development, and policymaking efforts on green chemical routes reliant on renewable energies.
ABSTRACT
Ammonia and methanol are essential to modern societies, but their production has been heavily reliant on natural gas, which contributes to supply disruptions and significant CO2 emissions. While low-carbon or green production routes have been extensively researched, their adoption has been hindered by higher costs, making them unsustainable. However, a recent energy crisis in Europe has created a unique opportunity to shift towards greener production technologies. Here we show that, green ammonia, produced through wind-powered water electrolysis, had the potential to outperform its fossil counterpart for six months as of December 2021, while methanol produced through CO2 capture and wind-based water electrolysis became an economically appealing alternative. With a coordinated effort from academia, industry, and policymakers, Europe can lead the grand transition towards more sustainable practices in the chemical industry.
