ABSTRACT
Medical school clerkship grades are an important method for applicants to distinguish themselves when applying to residency programs. Given the lack of standardization among medical schools in the clerkship grading process, it has become more challenging for orthopaedic surgery residencies to ascertain the true value of surgery clerkship grades between applicants. This letter to the editor is a response to the article by Hoy et al., "Analysis of variability and trends in medical school clerkship grades," and offers further perspectives on the variability of surgery clerkship grading and its effect on applicants.
Subject(s)
Mental Disorders , Orthopedics , Humans , Mental Disorders/complications , Postoperative PeriodSubject(s)
Internship and Residency , Orthopedic Procedures , Orthopedics , Humans , Databases, Factual , Orthopedics/educationABSTRACT
We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from later to earlier, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number R t each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. For out-of-sample projections, we fit a behavioral function to the in-sample data that allows for the endogenous response of R t to movements in the lagged number of infected cases. We show that declines in measures of population mobility tend to precede declines in the model-implied reproduction numbers for each country. This pattern suggests that mandatory and voluntary stay-at-home behavior and social distancing during the early stages of the epidemic worked to reduce the effective reproduction number and mitigate the spread of COVID-19.
