Tracking forest loss and fragmentation between 1930 and 2020 in Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) range in Nepal.

Forest cover is the primary determinant of elephant distribution, thus, understanding forest loss and fragmentation is crucial for elephant conservation. We assessed deforestation and patterns of forest fragmentation between 1930 and 2020 in Chure Terai Madhesh Lanscape (CTML) which covers the entire elephant range in Nepal. Forest cover maps and fragmentation matrices were generated using multi-source data (Topographic maps and Landsat satellite images of 1930, 1975, 2000, and 2020) and spatiotemporal change was quantified. At present, 19,069 km2 forest cover in CTML is available as the elephant habitat in Nepal. Overall, 21.5% of elephant habitat was lost between 1930 and 2020, with a larger (12.3%) forest cover loss between 1930 and 1975. Area of the large forests (Core 3) has decreased by 43.08% whereas smaller patches (Core 2, Core 1, edge and patch forests) has increased multifold between 1930 and 2020. The continued habitat loss and fragmentation probably fragmented elephant populations during the last century and made them insular with long-term ramifications for elephant conservation and human-elephant conflict. Given the substantial loss in forest cover and high levels of fragmentation, improving the resilience of elephant populations in Nepal would urgently require habitat and corridor restoration to enable the movement of elephants.

Movement behavior of a solitary large carnivore within a hotspot of human-wildlife conflicts in India.

With a rise in human induced changes to natural habitats, large predators are forced to share space and resources with people to coexist within multiple-use landscapes. Within such shared landscapes, co-occurrence of humans and predators often leads to human-carnivore conflicts and pose a substantial challenge for biodiversity conservation. To better elucidate large carnivore space use within a hotspot of human-wildlife conflicts, we used GPS data for leopards (N = 6) to identify behavioral states and document spatial patterns of resource selection in response to season and human activity periods within a fragmented landscape of North Bengal, eastern India. We identified two major behavioral states (i.e. resting and travelling). From the resource selection models, we found leopards selected habitats with dense to moderate vegetation cover and proximity to water while resting and travelling within the landscape. During the dry season, when risk of human-leopard conflicts is highest, leopards selected tea plantations, forest patches but avoided protected areas. These results suggest a potential for increase in human-carnivore conflicts and a strategy to conserve large predators within multiple-use landscapes of South Asia.

Effectiveness of non-lethal predator deterrents to reduce livestock losses to leopard attacks within a multiple-use landscape of the Himalayan region.

Lethal measures are widely adopted by local communities and governments to manage human-wildlife conflicts. Such measures lead to large scale decline of carnivore populations globally with trophic cascades on ecosystems and questionable impacts on human-wildlife conflicts. Mitigating human-carnivore conflicts through non-lethal measures will protect endangered predators and secure livelihoods. However, information on the effectiveness of such measures are extremely limited and hence cannot be applied in developing scientific evidence. Further to develop human-carnivore coexistence models, it is important for local community members, biologists and wildlife managers to actively participate in conservation programs. We evaluated the response of a non-lethal visual deterrent (i.e. fox lights) to deter leopard attacks on livestock within a multiple-use landscape of western Himalaya through community engagement. We monitored 16 experimental sites and 17 control sites within 27 villages and recorded data on livestock depredation by leopards between April 2018 to April 2019. A multivariate analysis was conducted to determine the influence of landscape predictors and animal husbandry practices on livestock depredation by leopards within the vicinity of human settlements. We found that visual deterrents discouraged common leopards to predate on livestock (cows and goats). We also demonstrated that community based conservation initiatives are successful in mitigating human-carnivore conflicts within large semi-natural landscapes. We suggest developing site specific coexistence strategies and adopting non-lethal measures to safeguard carnivores, livestock and humans within shared landscapes.

Elephants in the neighborhood: patterns of crop-raiding by Asian elephants within a fragmented landscape of Eastern India.

Loss of forest cover, rise in human populations and fragmentation of habitats leads to decline in biodiversity and extinction of large mammals globally. Elephants, being the largest of terrestrial mammals, symbolize global conservation programs and co-occur with humans within multiple-use landscapes of Asia and Africa. Within such shared landscapes, poaching, habitat loss and extent of human-elephant conflicts (HEC) affect survival and conservation of elephants. HEC are severe in South Asia with increasing attacks on humans, crop depredation and property damage. Such incidents reduce societal tolerance towards elephants and increase the risk of retaliation by local communities. We analyzed a 2-year dataset on crop depredation by Asian elephants (N = 380) events in North Bengal (eastern India). We also explored the effect of landscape, anthropogenic factors (area of forest, agriculture, distance to protected area, area of human settlements, riverine patches and human density) on the spatial occurrence of such incidents.Crop depredation showed a distinct nocturnal pattern (22.00-06:00) and majority of the incidents were recorded in the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Results of our spatial analysis suggest that crop depredation increased with an increase in the area of forest patches, agriculture, presence of riverine patches and human density. Probability of crop depredation further increased with decreasing distance from protected areas. Villages within 1.5 km of a forest patch were most affected. Crop raiding incidents suggest a deviation from the "high-risk high-gain male biased" foraging behavior and involved proportionately more mixed groups (57%) than lone bulls (43%). Demographic data suggest that mixed groups comprised an average of 23 individuals with adult and sub adult females, bulls and calves. Crop depredation and fatal elephant attacks on humans were spatially clustered with eastern, central and western parts of North Bengal identified as hotspots of HEC. Our results will help to prioritize mitigation measures such as prohibition of alcohol production within villages, improving condition of riverine patches, changing crop composition, fencing agriculture fields, implement early warning systems around protected areas and training local people on how to prevent conflicts.

Landscape predictors of human-leopard conflicts within multi-use areas of the Himalayan region.

Conflict with humans is a significant source of mortality for large carnivores globally. With rapid loss of forest cover and anthropogenic impacts on their habitats, large carnivores are forced to occupy multi-use landscapes outside protected areas. We investigated 857 attacks on livestock in eastern Himalaya and 375 attacks in western Himalaya by leopards between 2015 and 2018. Multivariate analyses were conducted to identify the landscape features which increased the probability of livestock depredation by leopards. The risk of a leopard killing livestock increased within a heterogeneous landscape matrix comprising of both closed and open habitats (very dense forests, moderate dense forests, open forests, scrubland and non-forests). We used the results to map potential human-leopard conflict hotspots across parts of the Indian Himalayan region. Our spatial risk maps indicate pockets in the eastern, central and western part of eastern Himalaya and the central, northern part of western Himalaya as hotspots of human-leopard conflicts. Most of the attacks occurred when livestock were grazing freely within multi-use areas without supervision of a herder. Our results suggest that awareness about high risk areas, supervised grazing, and removing vegetation cover around human settlements should be initiated to reduce predation by leopards.

Assessment and prediction of spatial patterns of human-elephant conflicts in changing land cover scenarios of a human-dominated landscape in North Bengal.

It is of utmost importance to research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflicts to understand the underlying mechanism of such interactions, i.e. major land use changes and prominent ecological drivers. In the north eastern part of India there has been a disparity between nature, economic development and fragmentation of wildlife habitats leading to intense conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in recent times. Both the elephant and human population have increased in the past few decades with large tracts of forests converted to commercial tea plantations, army camps and human settlements. We analyzed data maintained by the wildlife department on human deaths and injuries caused by elephant attacks between 2006-2016 to understand spatial and temporal patterns of human-elephant conflict, frequency and distribution. The average annual number of human deaths and injuries to elephant attacks between 2006 to 2016 was estimated to be 212 (SE 103) with the highest number of such incidents recorded in 2010-2011. Based on a grid based design of 5 km2 and 25 km2 resolution, the main spatial predictors of human-elephant conflicts identified through Maxent presence only models are annual mean precipitation, altitude, distance from protected area, area under forests, tea plantations and agriculture. Major land use changes were assessed for this region from 2008 to 2018 using satellite imageries in Arc GIS and a predicted imagery of 2028 was prepared using Idrisi Selva. Based on the 2018 imagery it was found that forest area had increased by 446 km2 within 10 years (2008-2018) and the annual rate of change was 12%. Area under agriculture had reduced by 128 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 2.5%. Area under tea plantation declined by 307 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 12% whereas area under human settlements increased by 61 km2 with an annual (-) rate of change of 44%. Hotspots of human-elephant conflicts were identified in an east west direction primarily around protected areas, tea plantations and along major riverine corridors. During informal interactions with farmers, tea estate labors it was revealed that local community members chased and harassed elephants from agriculture fields, human settlements under the influence of alcohol and thus were primary victims of fatal interactions. Our analytical approach can be replicated for other species in sites with similar issues of human-wildlife conflicts. The hotspot maps of conflict risk will help in developing appropriate mitigation strategies such as setting up early warning systems, restoration of wildlife corridors especially along dry river beds, using deterrents and barriers for vulnerable. Awareness about alcohol related incidents and basic biology of elephants should be organized regularly involving non-governmental organizations targeting the marginalized farmers and tea estate workers.

Understanding drivers of human-leopard conflicts in the Indian Himalayan region: Spatio-temporal patterns of conflicts and perception of local communities towards conserving large carnivores.

Human killing is the decisive and most critical expression of human-leopard conflict and needs to be addressed sensitively to maintain local support for leopard conservation in India. This research was undertaken to investigate the ecological aspects of human killing and injury, spatial characteristic and pattern of such sites, temporal and seasonal trends of attacks and perception of local communities towards leopard in the Indian Himalayan region (IHR). We surveyed two sites i) Pauri Garhwal in the western part and ii) North Bengal (Dooars) in the eastern part of IHR, compiled secondary data on human-leopard conflict records and made field visits to (N = 101) conflict sites. We also conducted (N = 186) semi-structured questionnaire surveys in each of the sites to assess perception of local communities towards leopard. We analyzed the conflict data using rare events model in a binary logistic regression framework to understand spatial patterns of such incidents for Pauri Garhwal and North Bengal. The average number of injuries and deaths to leopard attacks in Pauri was estimated to be 11 (SE 1.13) and 3 (SE 0.6) per year between 2006-2016 whereas in North Bengal it was estimated to be 70 (SE 9.2) and 1.6 (SE 0.3) respectively between 2004-2016. About 97% of the leopard attacks in North Bengal and 60% of the leopard attacks in Pauri resulted in human injuries. Majority of the leopard attack victims in Pauri were children and young people, whereas in North Bengal it was middle aged tea estate workers. Attack on humans in Pauri were recorded mostly near areas with dense scrub cover whereas in North Bengal it was reported within tea-estates. The percentage of human deaths to leopard attacks in Pauri were higher (40%) compared to a mere (3%) in North Bengal. Forty-one percent of respondents in Pauri and 75% in North Bengal were positive towards presence and conservation of leopard. A predictive risk map revealed central and northern regions of Pauri Garhwal and protected areas, peripheral areas in central and south-western dooars (North Bengal) as high "human-leopard conflict risk zones". This analytical procedure can be adopted in other sites to identify potential human-carnivore conflict risk zones.

Ranging, Activity and Habitat Use by Tigers in the Mangrove Forests of the Sundarban.

The Sundarban of India and Bangladesh (about 6000 km²) are the only mangrove forests inhabited by a sizeable population of tigers. The adjoining area also supports one of the highest human densities and experiences severe human-tiger conflicts. We used GPS-Satellite and VHF radio-collars on 6 (3 males and 3 female) tigers to study their ranging patterns and habitat preference. The average home range (95% Fixed Kernel) for resident females was 56.4 (SE 5.69) and for males it was 110 (SE 49) km². Tigers crossed an average of 5 water channels > 30 meters per day with a mean width of 54 meters, whereas channels larger than 400 meters were rarely crossed. Tigers spent over 58% of their time within Phoenix habitat but compositional analysis showed a habitat preference of the order Avicennia-Sonneratia > Phoenix > Ceriops > Barren > Water. Average daily distance moved was 4.6 km (range 0.1-23). Activity of tigers peaked between 05:00 hours and 10:00 hours showing some overlap with human activity. Territory boundaries were demarcated by large channels which tigers intensively patrolled. Extra caution should be taken while fishing or honey collection during early morning in Avicennia-Sonneratia and Phoenix habitat types along wide channels to reduce human-tiger conflict. Considering home-range core areas as exclusive, tiger density was estimated at 4.6 (SE range 3.6 to 6.7) tigers/100 km2 giving a total population of 76 (SE range 59-110) tigers in the Indian Sundarban. Reluctance of tigers to cross wide water channels combined with increasing commercial boat traffic and sea level rise due to climate change pose a real threat of fragmenting the Sundarban tiger population.