HIV incidence among non-migrating persons following a household migration event: a population-based, longitudinal study in Uganda.

Background: The impact of migration on HIV risk among non-migrating household members is poorly understood. We measured HIV incidence among non-migrants living in households with and without migrants in Uganda. Methods: We used four survey rounds of data collected from July 2011-May 2018 from non-migrant participants aged 15-49 years in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open, population-based cohort. Non-migrants were individuals with no evidence of migration between surveys or at the prior survey. The primary exposure, household migration, was assessed using census data and defined as ≥1 household member migrating in or out of the house from another community between surveys (∼18 months). Incident HIV cases tested positive following a negative result at the preceding visit. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations and robust standard errors. Analyses were stratified by gender, migration into or out of the household, and the relationship between non-migrants and migrants (i.e., any household migration, spouse, child). Findings: Overall, 11,318 non-migrants (5,674 women) were followed for 37,320 person-years. 28% (6,059/21,370) of non-migrant person-visits had recent migration into or out of the household, and 240 HIV incident cases were identified in non-migrating household members. Overall, non-migrants in migrant households were not at greater risk of acquiring HIV. However, HIV incidence among men was significantly higher when the spouse had recently migrated in (adjIRR:2·12;95%CI:1·05-4·27) or out (adjIRR:4·01;95%CI:2·16-7·44) compared to men with no spousal migration. Women with in- and out-migrant spouses also had higher HIV incidence, but results were not statistically significant. Interpretation: HIV incidence is higher among non-migrating persons with migrant spouses, especially men. Targeted HIV testing and prevention interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis could be considered for those with migrant spouses. Funding: National Institutes of Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Research in context: We searched PubMed for studies focused on HIV acquisition, prevalence or sexual behaviors among non-migrants who lived with migrants in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using search terms such as "HIV", "Emigration and Immigration", "family", "spouses", "household", "parents", and "children". Despite high levels of migration and an established association with HIV risk in SSA, there is limited data on the broader societal impacts of migration on HIV acquisition risk among non-migrant populations directly impacted by it.There has been only one published study that has previously evaluated impact of migration on HIV incidence among non-migrating persons in sub-Saharan Africa. This study, which exclusively assessed spousal migration, was conducted in Tanzania more than two decades earlier prior to HIV treatment availability and found that non-migrant men with long-term mobile partners were more than four times as likely to acquire HIV compared to men who had partners that were residents. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the effect of non-spousal migration, including any household migration and child migration, on HIV incidence among non-migrants. Added value of this study: In this study, we used data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), a population-based HIV surveillance cohort to measure the impact of migration on HIV incidence for non-migrant household members. The RCCS captures HIV incident events through regular, repeat HIV testing of participants and migration events through household censuses. Our study adds to the current literature by examining the general effect of migration in the household on HIV incidence in addition to child, and spousal migration. Using data from over 11,000 non-migrant individuals, we found that spousal, but not other types of household migration, substantially increased HIV risk among non-migrants, especially among men. Taken together, our results suggest that spousal migration may be associated with an increased risk of HIV acquisition in the period surrounding and immediately after spousal migration. Implications of all the available evidence: Our findings suggest that spousal migration in or out of the household is associated with greater HIV incidence. Targeted HIV testing and prevention interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis could be considered for men with migrant spouses.

"A Double Stress": The Mental Health Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic Among People Living with HIV in Rakai, Uganda.

Mental health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic for people living with HIV are poorly understood, especially in low-income settings. We conducted qualitative semi-structured in-depth interviews among people living with HIV (n = 16) and health workers (n = 10) in rural Rakai, southcentral Uganda. Data were analyzed thematically. We found mental stress during COVID-19 was compounded by worry about antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, distress over inadvertent disclosure of HIV status, fear that coronavirus infection would have more severe outcomes for immunocompromised individuals, and exacerbated poverty and economic stress. Mental health support for people living with HIV deserves greater attention during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.

Immune correlates of HIV exposure without infection in foreskins of men from Rakai, Uganda.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) susceptibility is heterogenous, with some HIV-exposed but seronegative (HESN) individuals remaining uninfected despite repeated exposure. Previous studies in the cervix have shown that reduced HIV susceptibility may be mediated by immune alterations in the genital mucosa. However, immune correlates of HIV exposure without infection have not been investigated in the foreskin. We collected sub-preputial swabs and foreskin tissue from HESN (n=20) and unexposed control (n=57) men undergoing elective circumcision. Blinded investigators assayed swabs for HIV-neutralizing IgA, innate antimicrobial peptides, and cytokine levels. Functional T-cell subsets from foreskin tissue were assessed by flow cytometry. HESN foreskins had elevated α-defensins (3,027 vs. 1,795 pg ml(-1), P=0.011) and HIV-neutralizing IgA (50.0 vs. 13.5% of men, P=0.019). Foreskin tissue from HESN men contained a higher density of CD3 T cells (151.9 vs. 69.9 cells mm(-2), P=0.018), but a lower proportion of these was Th17 cells (6.12 vs. 8.04% of CD4 T cells, P=0.007), and fewer produced tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα) (34.3 vs. 41.8% of CD4 T cells, P=0.037; 36.9 vs. 45.7% of CD8 T cells, P=0.004). A decrease in the relative abundance of susceptible CD4 T cells and local TNFα production, in combination with HIV-neutralizing IgA and α-defensins, may represent a protective immune milieu at a site of HIV exposure.

Foreskin T-cell subsets differ substantially from blood with respect to HIV co-receptor expression, inflammatory profile, and memory status.

The foreskin is the main site of heterosexual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition in uncircumcised men, but functional data regarding T-cell subsets present at this site are lacking. Foreskin tissue and blood were obtained from Ugandan men undergoing elective adult circumcision. Tissue was treated by mechanical and enzymatic digestion followed by T-cell subset identification and assessment of cytokine production using flow cytometry. Foreskin CD4(+) T cells were predominantly an effector memory phenotype, and compared with blood they displayed a higher frequency of CCR5 expression (42.0% vs. 9.9%) and interleukin-17 production. There was no difference in T-regulatory cell frequency, but interferon-γ and tumor necrosis factor-α production were increased in foreskin CD8(+) T cells. These novel techniques demonstrate that the foreskin represents a proinflammatory milieu that is enriched for HIV-susceptible T-cell subsets. Further characterization of foreskin T-cell subsets may help to define the correlates of HIV susceptibility in the foreskin.

Aetiology of genital ulcer disease in female partners of male participants in a circumcision trial in Uganda.

HIV acquisition is associated with herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection and genital ulcer disease (GUD). Three randomized control trials demonstrated that male circumcision significantly decreases HIV, HSV-2, human papillomavirus and self-reported GUD among men. GUD is also decreased among female partners of circumcised men, but it is unknown whether male circumcision status affects GUD pathogens in female partners. For the evaluation of GUD aetiology, two separate multiplex assays were performed to detect Haemophilus ducreyi, Treponema pallidum, HSV-1 and HSV-2. Of all the female GUD swabs evaluated, 67.5% had an aetiology identified, and HSV-2 was the primary pathogen detected (96.3%). However, there was no difference in the proportion of ulcers due to HSV-2 or other pathogens between female partners of circumcised men (11/15, 73.3%) compared with uncircumcised men (15/25, 60.0%, P = 0.39). The seroprevalence of HSV-2 is high in this population and therefore most of the detected HSV-2 infections represent reactivation. Since GUD is associated with HIV acquisition and one-third of GUD in this study did not have an aetiological agent identified, further research is needed to better understand the aetiology of GUD in Africa, and its relationship to circumcision and HIV infection.

Burden of infection among heads and non-head of rural households in Rakai, Uganda.

The objective was to determine HIV prevalence, symptomatology and mortality among adult heads and non-heads of households, in order to assess the burden of HIV on households. It was a community study of 11,536 adults aged 15-59, residing in 4,962 households in 56 villages, Rakai district, Uganda. First, 4,962 heads and 6,574 non-heads of households were identified from censuses. Interviews were then used to determine socio-demographic/behavioural characteristics. HIV seroprevalence was diagnosed by two EIAs with Western blot confirmation. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of HIV infection in household heads and non-heads were estimated by multivariate logistic regression. Age-adjusted mortality was also assessed. HIV prevalence was 16.9% in the population, and 21.5% of households had at least one HIV-infected person (<0.0001). HIV prevalence was higher among heads than non-heads of households (21.5 and 13.3%, respectively, OR=1.79; CI 1.62-1.97). Most household heads were males (70.5%), and HIV prevalence was 17.8% among male heads compared with 6.6% in male non-heads of households (OR=2.31; CI 1.65-2.52). Women heading households were predominantly widowed, separated or divorced (64.4%). HIV prevalence was 30.5% among female heads, compared with 15.6% in female non-household heads (OR=1.42; CI 1.15-1.63). Age-adjusted mortality was significantly lower among male household heads than non-heads, both for the HIV-positive (RR=0.68) and HIV-negative men (RR=0.63). Among women, HIV-negative female household heads had significantly higher mortality than HIV-uninfected female non-heads (RR=1.72). HIV disproportionately affects heads of households, particularly males. Mortality due to AIDS is likely to increase the proportion of female-headed households, and adversely affect the welfare of domestic units.

HIV incidence and sexually transmitted disease prevalence associated with condom use: a population study in Rakai, Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence of condom effectiveness for HIV and sexually transmitted disease (STD) prevention is based primarily on high-risk populations. We examined condom effectiveness in a general population with high HIV prevalence in rural Africa. METHODS: Data were from a randomized community trial in Rakai, Uganda. Condom usage information was obtained prospectively from 17,264 sexually active individuals aged 15-59 years over a period of 30 months. HIV incidence and STD prevalence was determined for consistent and irregular condom users, compared to non-users. Adjusted rate ratios (RR) of HIV acquisition were estimated by Poisson multivariate regression, and odds ratios of STDs estimated by logistic regression. RESULTS: Only 4.4% reported consistent condom use and 16.5% reported inconsistent use during the prior year. Condom use was higher among males, and younger, unmarried and better educated individuals, and those reporting multiple sex partners or extramarital relationships. Consistent condom use significantly reduced HIV incidence [RR, 0.37; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.15-0.88], syphilis [odds ratio (OR), 0.71; 95% CI, 0.53-0.94] and gonorrhea/Chlamydia (OR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.25-0.97) after adjustment for socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics. Irregular condom use was not protective against HIV or STD and was associated with increased gonorrhea/Chlamydia risk (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.06-1.99). The population attributable fraction of consistent use for prevention of HIV was -4.5% (95% CI, -8.3 to 0.0), due to the low prevalence of consistent use in the population. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent condom use provides protection from HIV and STDs, whereas inconsistent use is not protective. Programs must emphasize consistent condom use for HIV and STD prevention.

Male circumcision and HIV acquisition and transmission: cohort studies in Rakai, Uganda. Rakai Project Team.

BACKGROUND: Male circumcision is associated with reduced HIV acquisition. METHODS: HIV acquisition was determined in a cohort of 5507 HIV-negative Ugandan men, and in 187 HIV-negative men in discordant relationships. Transmission was determined in 223 HIV-positive men with HIV-negative partners. HIV incidence per 100 person years (py) and adjusted rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Poisson regression. HIV-1 serum viral load was determined for the seropositive partners in HIV-discordant couples. RESULTS: The prevalence of circumcision was 16.5% for all men; 99.1% in Muslims and 3.7% in non-Muslims. Circumcision was significantly associated with reduced HIV acquisition in the cohort as a whole (RR 0.53, CI 0.33-0.87), but not among non-Muslim men. Prepubertal circumcision significantly reduced HIV acquisition (RR 0.49, CI 0.26-0.82), but postpubertal circumcision did not. In discordant couples with HIV-negative men, no serconversions occurred in 50 circumcised men, whereas HIV acquisition was 16.7 per 100 py in uncircumcised men (P = 0.004). In couples with HIV-positive men, HIV transmission was significantly reduced in circumcised men with HIV viral loads less than 50000 copies/ml (P = 0.02). INTERPRETATION: Prepubertal circumcision may reduce male HIV acquisition in a general population, but the protective effects are confounded by cultural and behavioral factors in Muslims. In discordant couples, circumcision reduces HIV acquisition and transmission. The assessment of circumcision for HIV prevention is complex and requires randomized trials.

Mortality associated with HIV infection in rural Rakai District, Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To assess mortality impact of HIV in rural Uganda. METHODS: An open cohort of 19983 adults aged 15-59 years, in Rakai district was followed at 10 month intervals for four surveys. Sociodemographic characteristics and symptomatology/disease conditions were assessed by interview. Deaths among residents and out-migrants were identified household census. Mortality rates were computed per 1000 person years (py) and the rate ratio (RR) of death in HIV-positive/HIV-negative subjects, and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of death were estimated according to sociodemographic characteristics. Mortality associated with potential AIDS defining symptoms and signs was assessed. RESULTS: HIV prevalence was 16.1%. Mortality was 132.6 per 1000 py in HIV-infected versus 6.7 per 1000 py in uninfected subjects, and 73.5% of adult deaths were attributable to HIV infection. Mortality increased with age, but the highest attributable risk of HIV associated deaths were observed in persons aged 20-39 years (PAF > 80%) and in women. HIV associated mortality was highest in the better educated (PAF > or = 75%) and among government employees (PAF > or = 82%). Of the HIV-positive subjects 40.5% reported no illness < 10 months preceding death, symptoms were poor predictors of death (sensitivity 1.6-38.8%), and only 9.1% met the World Health Organization clinical definition of AIDS. Infant mortality rates in babies of HIV-infected and uninfected mothers were 209.4 and 97.7 per 1000, respectively. CONCLUSION: HIV is taking substantial toll in this population, particularly among the younger better educated adults, and infants. Symptomatology or the World Health Organization definition of AIDS are poor predictors of death.

Sero-prevalence of Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) in Rakai district, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) is sexually transmitted and causes one of the genital ulcerative diseases associated with the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1). OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of serological reactivity to a type specific HSV-2 antigen (gG2) ELISA assay. SETTING: Rakai district, Uganda. SUBJECTS: Two hundred and one serum samples of persons aged 15-54 years. The samples were randomly selected by a computer programme. RESULTS: Out of the 201 serum samples selected, 117 (58.2%) had serological evidence of HSV-2 infection. Twenty nine (32.2%) out of the 74 males and 88 (69.3%) out of the 127 females, respectively, had serological evidence of HSV-2 infection giving a female:male ratio of 1.8 (95% CI 1.3-2.4). The most important risk factor for acquisition of HSV-2 in males was found to be age while in the females, the most important risk factors were age and the number of sexual partners in the previous five years. CONCLUSION: HSV-2 was highly prevalent in this rural population of Uganda.

Relative risks and population attributable fraction of incident HIV associated with symptoms of sexually transmitted diseases and treatable symptomatic sexually transmitted diseases in Rakai District, Uganda. Rakai Project Team.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the linkage of sexually transmitted disease (STD) symptoms and treatable STD to HIV incidence. DESIGN: Analysis of a randomized trial of STD control for HIV prevention, Rakai, Uganda. METHODS: Consenting adults 15-59 years of age were seen at 10-monthly home visits, interviewed regarding STD symptoms, and asked to provide samples for HIV and STD diagnoses. HIV incidence was determined in 8089 HIV-negative subjects over 10 457 person years. Adjusted rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of HIV acquisition associated with genital ulcer disease (GUD) and discharge/dysuria were used to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of HIV acquisition. HIV transmission risks associated with STD symptoms in HIV-positive partners of 167 HIV discordant couples and the numbers of sexual partners reported by HIV-positive subjects were used to estimate the PAF of HIV transmission attributable to STD. RESULTS: HIV prevalence was 16%. The risk of HIV acquisition was increased with GUD (RR 3.14; CI 1.98-4.98) and in males with discharge/dysuria (RR 2.44; CI 1.17-5.12), but not in females with discharge/dysuria. The PAF of HIV acquisition was 9.5% (CI 2.8-15.8%) with any of the three STD symptoms. The PAF for GUD was 8.8% (CI 3.7-13.8), but only 8.2% of reported GUD was caused by treatable syphilis or chancroid . The PAF for discharge/dysuria in males was 6.7% (CI 1.1-13.8), but only 25% of symptomatic males had concurrent gonorrhea or chlamydial infection. No significant differences were seen in PAF between study treatment arms. The PAF of HIV transmission associated with STD symptoms in HIV-positive persons was indirectly estimated to be 10.4%. CONCLUSION: In this mature, generalized HIV epidemic setting, most HIV seroconversion occurs without recognized STD symptoms or curable STD detected by screening. Therefore, syndromic management or other strategies of STD treatment are unlikely to substantially reduce HIV incidence in this population. However, STD is associated with significant HIV risk at the individual level, and STD management is needed to protect individuals.

Control of sexually transmitted diseases for AIDS prevention in Uganda: a randomised community trial. Rakai Project Study Group.

BACKGROUND: The study tested the hypothesis that community-level control of sexually transmitted disease (STD) would result in lower incidence of HIV-1 infection in comparison with control communities. METHODS: This randomised, controlled, single-masked, community-based trial of intensive STD control, via home-based mass antibiotic treatment, took place in Rakai District, Uganda. Ten community clusters were randomly assigned to intervention or control groups. All consenting residents aged 15-59 years were enrolled; visited in the home every 10 months; interviewed; asked to provide biological samples for assessment of HIV-1 infection and STDs; and were provided with mass treatment (azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, metronidazole in the intervention group, vitamins/anthelmintic drug in the control). Intention-to-treat analyses used multivariate, paired, cluster-adjusted rate ratios. FINDINGS: The baseline prevalence of HIV-1 infection was 15.9%. 6602 HIV-1-negative individuals were enrolled in the intervention group and 6124 in the control group. 75.0% of intervention-group and 72.6% of control-group participants provided at least one follow-up sample for HIV-1 testing. At enrolment, the two treatment groups were similar in STD prevalence rates. At 20-month follow-up, the prevalences of syphilis (352/6238 [5.6%]) vs 359/5284 [6.8%]; rate ratio 0.80 [95% CI 0.71-0.89]) and trichomoniasis (182/1968 [9.3%] vs 261/1815 [14.4%]; rate ratio 0.59 [0.38-0.91]) were significantly lower in the intervention group than in the control group. The incidence of HIV-1 infection was 1.5 per 100 person-years in both groups (rate ratio 0.97 [0.81-1.16]). In pregnant women, the follow-up prevalences of trichomoniasis, bacterial vaginosis, gonorrhoea, and chlamydia infection were significantly lower in the intervention group than in the control group. No effect of the intervention on incidence of HIV-1 infection was observed in pregnant women or in stratified analyses. INTERPRETATION: We observed no effect of the STD intervention on the incidence of HIV-1 infection. In the Rakai population, a substantial proportion of HIV-1 acquisition appears to occur independently of treatable STD cofactors.

Community based study of treatment seeking among subjects with symptoms of sexually transmitted disease in rural Uganda.

PIP: This paper presents a community based study of treatment seeking among people with symptoms of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in rural Uganda. The effects of asymptomatic infections and treatment seeking behavior on control of sexually transmitted disease were quantified. The study suggests that treating only individuals with STD symptoms results in only a small proportion of the infected population being reached. This situation leads to fewer people receiving effective health care. Thus, STD control programs in medically underserved populations must take into account the prevalence of asymptomatic infections and the health related practices of people with STDs symptoms to design strategies for reducing transmission of these diseases.^ieng

A randomized, community trial of intensive sexually transmitted disease control for AIDS prevention, Rakai, Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the design and first-round survey results of a trial of intensive sexually transmitted disease (STD) control to reduce HIV-1 incidence. STUDY DESIGN: Randomized, controlled, community-based trial in Rakai District, Uganda. METHODS: In this ongoing study, 56 communities were grouped into 10 clusters designed to encompass social/sexual networks; clusters within blocks were randomly assigned to the intervention or control arm. Every 10 months, all consenting resident adults aged 15-59 years are visited in the home for interview and sample collection (serological sample, urine, and, in the case of women, self-administered vaginal swabs). Sera are tested for HIV-1, syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, trichomonas and bacterial vaginosis. Following interview, all consenting adults are offered directly observed, single oral dose treatment (STD treatment in the intervention arm, anthelminthic and iron-folate in the control arm). Treatment is administered irrespective of symptoms or laboratory testing (mass treatment strategy). Both arms receive identical health education, condom and serological counseling services. RESULTS: In the first home visit round, the study enrolled 5834 intervention and 5784 control arm subjects. Compliance with interview, sample collection and treatment was high in both arms (over 90%). Study arm populations were comparable with respect to sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics, and baseline HIV and STD rates. The latter were high: 16.9% of all subjects were HIV-positive, 10.0% had syphilis, and 23.8% of women had trichomonas and 50.9% had bacterial vaginosis. CONCLUSIONS: Testing the effects of STD control on AIDS prevention is feasible in this Ugandan setting.

PIP: An ongoing (1994-98) randomized, community-based trial in Uganda's Rakai District is assessing the assumption that intensive sexually transmitted disease (STD) control efforts result in marked declines in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Described, in this article, are the project design and findings of the first-round baseline survey. 56 communities were grouped into 10 clusters designed to encompass social/sexual networks and clusters within blocks were randomly assigned to the intervention or control arm. All consenting permanent residents of the district are visited in their homes at 10-month intervals where they are administered extensive questionnaires, provide urine and vaginal swab samples, and are offered mass treatment regardless of symptoms or laboratory testing (single oral dose STD treatment in the intervention arm and anthelmintics and iron folate in the control arm). Both groups receive identical health education, condom promotion, and serologic counseling services. In the first round of home visits, 5834 intervention and 5784 control arm subjects were enrolled, representing about 90% of eligible adults. The groups were comparable in terms of sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics and baseline rates of HIV and STDs. 16.9% of subjects were HIV-positive, 10.0% had syphilis, 23.8% of women had trichomonas, and 50.9% had bacterial vaginosis. Detailed STD assessment is expected not only to document the relationship between STD control and HIV, but also to identify which STDs confer the greatest population attributable risk for HIV transmission, facilitating targeted control efforts in the future.

Trends in HIV-1 prevalence may not reflect trends in incidence in mature epidemics: data from the Rakai population-based cohort, Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether trends in serial HIV-1 prevalence reflect trend in HIV incidence, and to decompose the effects of HIV-1 incidence, mortality, mobility and compliance on HIV-1 prevalence in a population-based cohort. DESIGN: Two-year follow up (1990-1992) of an open cohort of all adults aged 15-59 years, resident in a sample of 31 representative community clusters in rural Rakai District, Uganda. METHODS: A detailed household enumeration was concluded at baseline and in each subsequent year. All household residents were listed, and all deaths and in- and out-migrations that occurred in the intersurvey year wee recorded. In each year, all consenting adults were interviewed and provided a serological sample; 2591 adults aged 15-59 years were enrolled at baseline. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among adults declined significantly 1990 and 1992 (23.4% at baseline, 21.8% in 1991, 20.9% in 1992; P < 0.05). Declining prevalence was also observed in subgroups, including young adults aged 15-24 years (from 20.6 to 16.2% over 3 years; P < 0.02), women of reproductive age (from 27.1 to 23.5%; P < 0.05), and pregnant women (from 25.4 to 20.0%; not significant), However, HIV incidence did not change significantly among all adults aged 15-59 years (2.1 +/- 0.4 per 100 person-years of observation (PYO) in 1990-1991 and 2.0 +/- 0.3 per 100 PYO in 1991-1992], nor in population subgroups. HIV-related mortality was high (13.5 per 100 PYO among the HIV-positive), removing more infected persons that were added by seroconversion. Net out-migration also removed substantial numbers of HIV-positive individuals. CONCLUSIONS: In this mature HIV epidemic, HIV prevalence declined in the presence of stable and incidence. HIV-related mortality contributed most to the prevalence decline. Prevalence was not an adequate surrogate measure of incidence, limiting the utility or serial prevalence measures in assessing the dynamics of the HIV epidemic and in evaluating the impact of current preventive strategies.

PIP: Findings are reported from a 2-year follow-up study of an open cohort of people aged 15-59 years living in a sample of 31 representative community clusters in rural Rakai district, Uganda, to measure whether trends in serial HIV-1 prevalence reflect trends in HIV incidence, and to gain insight into the effects of HIV-1 incidence, mortality, mobility, and compliance upon HIV-1 prevalence. In each year of study, all consenting adults provided a serological sample and were interviewed; 2591 adults were enrolled at baseline. HIV prevalence among adults declined significantly between 1990 and 1992; from 23.4% in 1990, to 21.8% in 1991, and 20.9% in 1992. Declining prevalence was also observed in subgroups, including young adults aged 15-24 years from 20.6% to 16.2%, reproductive-age women from 27.1% to 23.5%, and pregnant women from 25.4% to 20.0%. The decline in HIV prevalence among pregnant women, however, is not significant. HIV incidence did not change significantly among all adults aged 15-59 years, nor in population subgroups. HIV-related mortality was 13.5/person-year of observation among those who were HIV-positive. Substantial numbers of HIV-infected individuals were also loss to emigration.