Political economy analysis of subnational health management in Kenya, Malawi and Uganda.

The need to bolster primary health care (PHC) to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for health is well recognized. In Eastern and Southern Africa, where governments have progressively decentralized health decision-making, health management is critical to PHC performance. While investments in health management capacity are important, so is improving the environment in which managers operate. Governance arrangements, management systems and power dynamics of actors can have a significant influence on health managers' ability to improve PHC access and quality. We conducted a problem-driven political economy analysis (PEA) in Kenya, Malawi and Uganda to explore local decision-making environments and how they affect management and governance practices for health. This PEA used document review and key informant interviews (N = 112) with government actors, development partners and civil societies in three districts or counties in each country (N = 9). We found that while decentralization should improve PHC by supporting better decisions in line with local priorities from community input, it has been accompanied by thick bureaucracy, path-dependent and underfunded budgets that result in trade-offs and unfulfilled plans, management support systems that are less aligned to local priorities, weak accountability between local government and development partners, uneven community engagement and insufficient public administration capacity to negotiate these challenges. Emergent findings suggest that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) not only resulted in greater pressures on health teams and budgets but also improved relations with central government related to better communication and flexible funding, offering some lessons. Without addressing the disconnection between the vision for decentralization and the reality of health managers mired in unhelpful processes and politics, delivering on PHC and universal health coverage goals and the SDG agenda will remain out of reach.

Predictive value of pulse oximetry for mortality in infants and children presenting to primary care with clinical pneumonia in rural Malawi: A data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: The mortality impact of pulse oximetry use during infant and childhood pneumonia management at the primary healthcare level in low-income countries is unknown. We sought to determine mortality outcomes of infants and children diagnosed and referred using clinical guidelines with or without pulse oximetry in Malawi. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a data linkage study of prospective health facility and community case and mortality data. We matched prospectively collected community health worker (CHW) and health centre (HC) outpatient data to prospectively collected hospital and community-based mortality surveillance outcome data, including episodes followed up to and deaths within 30 days of pneumonia diagnosis amongst children 0-59 months old. All data were collected in Lilongwe and Mchinji districts, Malawi, from January 2012 to June 2014. We determined differences in mortality rates using <90% and <93% oxygen saturation (SpO2) thresholds and World Health Organization (WHO) and Malawi clinical guidelines for referral. We used unadjusted and adjusted (for age, sex, respiratory rate, and, in analyses of HC data only, Weight for Age Z-score [WAZ]) regression to account for interaction between SpO2 threshold (pulse oximetry) and clinical guidelines, clustering by child, and CHW or HC catchment area. We matched CHW and HC outpatient data to hospital inpatient records to explore roles of pulse oximetry and clinical guidelines on hospital attendance after referral. From 7,358 CHW and 6,546 HC pneumonia episodes, we linked 417 CHW and 695 HC pneumonia episodes to 30-day mortality outcomes: 16 (3.8%) CHW and 13 (1.9%) HC patients died. SpO2 thresholds of <90% and <93% identified 1 (6%) of the 16 CHW deaths that were unidentified by integrated community case management (iCCM) WHO referral protocol and 3 (23%) and 4 (31%) of the 13 HC deaths, respectively, that were unidentified by the integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) WHO protocol. Malawi IMCI referral protocol, which differs from WHO protocol at the HC level and includes chest indrawing, identified all but one of these deaths. SpO2 < 90% predicted death independently of WHO danger signs compared with SpO2 ≥ 90%: HC Risk Ratio (RR), 9.37 (95% CI: 2.17-40.4, p = 0.003); CHW RR, 6.85 (1.15-40.9, p = 0.035). SpO2 < 93% was also predictive versus SpO2 ≥ 93% at HC level: RR, 6.68 (1.52-29.4, p = 0.012). Hospital referrals and outpatient episodes with referral decision indications were associated with mortality. A substantial proportion of those referred were not found admitted in the inpatients within 7 days of referral advice. All 12 deaths in 73 hospitalised children occurred within 24 hours of arrival in the hospital, which highlights delay in appropriate care seeking. The main limitation of our study was our ability to only match 6% of CHW episodes and 11% of HC episodes to mortality outcome data. CONCLUSIONS: Pulse oximetry identified fatal pneumonia episodes at HCs in Malawi that would otherwise have been missed by WHO referral guidelines alone. Our findings suggest that pulse oximetry could be beneficial in supplementing clinical signs to identify children with pneumonia at high risk of mortality in the outpatient setting in health centres for referral to a hospital for appropriate management.

The Epidemiology of Hypoxemic Pneumonia among Young Infants in Malawi.

We describe hypoxemic pneumonia prevalence in outpatient and inpatient settings, in-hospital mortality, and clinical guideline performance for identifying hypoxemia in young infants in Malawi. In this retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study, we investigate infants younger than 2 months participating in pneumonia surveillance at seven hospitals and 18 outpatient health centers in Malawi between 2011 and 2014. Logistic regression, multiple imputation with chained equations, and pattern mixture modeling were used to determine the association between peripheral capillary oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO2) levels and hospital mortality. We describe outpatient clinician hospital referral recommendations based on clinical characteristics and SpO2 distributions. Among 1,879 analyzed cases, SpO2 < 90% was more prevalent among outpatient health center cases compared with hospitalized cases (22.6% versus 13.5%, 95% CI: 17.6-28.4% and 12.0-15.3%, respectively). A larger proportion of hospitalized infants had signs of respiratory distress compared with infants at health centers (67.7% versus 56.6%, P < 0.001) and most hospitalized infants were boys (56.7% versus 40.6%, P < 0.001). An SpO2 of 90-92% and < 90% was associated with similarly increased odds of in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 4.3 and 4.4, 95% CI: 1.7-11.1 and 1.8-10.5, respectively). Unrecorded, or unobtainable, SpO2 was highly associated with mortality (n = 127, aOR: 18.1; 95% CI: 7.6-42.8). Four of 22 (18%) infants at health centers who did not meet clinical referral criteria had an SpO2 ≤ 92%. Clinicians should consider hospital referral in young infants with a SpO2 ≤ 92%. Infants with unobtainable SpO2 readings should be considered a high-risk group, and hospital referral of these cases may be appropriate.

The NeoTree application: developing an integrated mHealth solution to improve quality of newborn care and survival in a district hospital in Malawi.

More than two-thirds of newborn lives could be saved worldwide if evidence-based interventions were successfully implemented. We developed the NeoTree application to improve quality of newborn care in resource-poor countries. The NeoTree is a fully integrated digital health intervention that combines immediate data capture, entered by healthcare workers (HCW) on admission, while simultaneously providing them with evidence-based clinical decision support and newborn care education. We conducted a mixed-methods intervention development study, codeveloping and testing the NeoTree prototype with HCWs in a district hospital in Malawi. Focus groups explored the acceptability and feasibility of digital health solutions before and after implementation of the NeoTree in the clinical setting. One-to-one theoretical usability workshops and a 1-month clinical usability study informed iterative changes, gathered process and clinical data, System Usability Scale (SUS) and perceived improvements in quality of care. HCWs perceived the NeoTree to be acceptable and feasible. Mean SUS before and after the clinical usability study were high at 80.4 and 86.1, respectively (above average is >68). HCWs reported high-perceived improvements in quality of newborn care after using the NeoTree on the ward. They described improved confidence in clinical decision-making, clinical skills, critical thinking and standardisation of care. Identified factors for successful implementation included a technical support worker. Coproduction, mixed-methods approaches and user-focused iterative development were key to the development of the NeoTree prototype, which was shown to be an agile, acceptable, feasible and highly usable tool with the potential to improve the quality of newborn care in resource-poor settings.

An assessment of PCV13 vaccine coverage using a repeated cross-sectional household survey in Malawi.

Background: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) was introduced in Malawi from November 2011 using a three dose primary series at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age to reduce Streptococcus pneumoniae-related diseases. To date, PCV13 paediatric coverage in Malawi has not been rigorously assessed.  We used household surveys to longitudinally track paediatric PCV13 coverage in rural Malawi. Methods: Samples of 60 randomly selected children (30 infants aged 6 weeks to 4 months and 30 aged 4-16 months) were sought in each of 20 village clinic catchment 'basins' of Kabudula health area, Lilongwe, Malawi between March 2012 and June 2014. Child health information was reviewed and mothers interviewed to determine each child's PCV13 dose status and vaccine timing. The survey was completed six times in 4-8 month intervals. Survey inference was used to assess PCV13 dose coverage in each basin for each age group. All 20 basins were pooled to assess area-wide vaccination coverage over time, by age in months, and adherence to the vaccination schedule. Results: We surveyed a total of 8,562 children in six surveys; 82% were in the older age group. Overall, in age-eligible children, two-dose and three-dose coverage increased from 30% to 85% and 10% to 86%, respectively, between March 2012 and June 2014.  PCV13 coverage was higher in the older age group in all surveys. Although it varied by basin, PCV13 coverage was consistently delayed: median ages at first, second and third doses were 9, 15 and 21 weeks, respectively. Conclusion: In our rural study area, PCV13 introduction did not meet the Malawi Ministry of Health one-year three-dose 90% coverage target, but after 2 years reached levels likely to reduce the prevalence of both invasive and non-invasive paediatric pneumococcal diseases. Better adherence to the PCV13 schedule may reduce pneumococcal disease in younger Malawian children.

Usability Testing of a Reusable Pulse Oximeter Probe Developed for Health-Care Workers Caring for Children < 5 Years Old in Low-Resource Settings.

Hypoxemia measured by pulse oximetry predicts child pneumonia mortality in low-resource settings (LRS). Existing pediatric oximeter probes are prohibitively expensive and/or difficult to use, limiting LRS implementation. Using a human-centered design, we developed a low-cost, reusable pediatric oximeter probe for LRS health-care workers (HCWs). Here, we report probe usability testing. Fifty-one HCWs from Malawi, Bangladesh, and the United Kingdom participated, and seven experts provided reference measurements. Health-care workers and experts measured the peripheral arterial oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO2) independently in < 5 year olds. Health-care worker measurements were classed as successful if recorded in 5 minutes (or shorter) and physiologically appropriate for the child, using expert measurements as the reference. All expert measurements were considered successful if obtained in < 5 minutes. We analyzed the proportion of successful SpO2 measurements obtained in < 1, < 2, and < 5 minutes and used multivariable logistic regression to predict < 1 minute successful measurements. We conducted four testing rounds with probe modifications between rounds, and obtained 1,307 SpO2 readings. Overall, 67% (876) of measurements were successful and achieved in < 1 minute, 81% (1,059) < 2 minutes, and 90% (1,181) < 5 minutes. Compared with neonates, increasing age (infant adjusted odds ratio [aOR]; 1.87, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.16, 3.02; toddler aOR: 4.33, 95% CI: 2.36, 7.97; child aOR; 3.90, 95% CI: 1.73, 8.81) and being asleep versus being calm (aOR; 3.53, 95% CI: 1.89, 6.58), were associated with < 1 minute successful measurements. In conclusion, we designed a novel, reusable pediatric oximetry probe that was effectively used by LRS HCWs on children. This probe may be suitable for LRS implementation.

Quality improvement and emerging global health priorities.

Quality improvement approaches can strengthen action on a range of global health priorities. Quality improvement efforts are uniquely placed to reorient care delivery systems towards integrated people-centred health services and strengthen health systems to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This article makes the case for addressing shortfalls of previous agendas by articulating the critical role of quality improvement in the Sustainable Development Goal era. Quality improvement can stimulate convergence between health security and health systems; address global health security priorities through participatory quality improvement approaches; and improve health outcomes at all levels of the health system. Entry points for action include the linkage with antimicrobial resistance and the contentious issue of the health of migrants. The work required includes focussed attention on the continuum of national quality policy formulation, implementation and learning; alongside strengthening the measurement-improvement linkage. Quality improvement plays a key role in strengthening health systems to achieve UHC.

A framework for learning about improvement: embedded implementation and evaluation design to optimize learning.

Improving health care involves many actors, often working in complex adaptive systems. Interventions tend to be multi-factorial, implementation activities diverse, and contexts dynamic and complicated. This makes improvement initiatives challenging to describe and evaluate as matching evaluation and program designs can be difficult, requiring collaboration, trust and transparency. Collaboration is required to address important epidemiological principles of bias and confounding. If this does not take place, results may lack credibility because the association between interventions implemented and outcomes achieved is obscure and attribution uncertain. Moreover, lack of clarity about what was implemented, how it was implemented, and the context in which it was implemented often lead to disappointment or outright failure of spread and scale-up efforts. The input of skilled evaluators into the design and conduct of improvement initiatives can be helpful in mitigating these potential problems. While evaluation must be rigorous, if it is too rigid necessary adaptation and learning may be compromised. This article provides a framework and guidance on how improvers and evaluators can work together to design, implement and learn about improvement interventions more effectively.

Practical recommendations for the evaluation of improvement initiatives.

A lack of clear guidance for funders, evaluators and improvers on what to include in evaluation proposals can lead to evaluation designs that do not answer the questions stakeholders want to know. These evaluation designs may not match the iterative nature of improvement and may be imposed onto an initiative in a way that is impractical from the perspective of improvers and the communities with whom they work. Consequently, the results of evaluations are often controversial, and attribution remains poorly understood. Improvement initiatives are iterative, adaptive and context-specific. Evaluation approaches and designs must align with these features, specifically in their ability to consider complexity, to evolve as the initiative adapts over time and to understand the interaction with local context. Improvement initiatives often identify broadly defined change concepts and provide tools for care teams to tailor these in more detail to local conditions. Correspondingly, recommendations for evaluation are best provided as broad guidance, to be tailored to the specifics of the initiative. In this paper, we provide practical guidance and recommendations that funders and evaluators can use when developing an evaluation plan for improvement initiatives that seeks to: identify the questions stakeholders want to address; develop the initial program theory of the initiative; identify high-priority areas to measure progress over time; describe the context the initiative will be applied within; and identify experimental or observational designs that will address attribution.

Correction: Predicting Hospitalised Paediatric Pneumonia Mortality Risk: An External Validation of RISC and mRISC, and Local Tool Development (RISC-Malawi) from Malawi.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0168126.].

Opportunities and barriers in paediatric pulse oximetry for pneumonia in low-resource clinical settings: a qualitative evaluation from Malawi and Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVE: To gain an understanding of what challenges pulse oximetry for paediatric pneumonia management poses, how it has changed service provision and what would improve this device for use across paediatric clinical settings in low-income countries. DESIGN: Focus group discussions (FGDs), with purposive sampling and thematic analysis using a framework approach. SETTING: Community, front-line outpatient, and hospital outpatient and inpatient settings in Malawi and Bangladesh, which provide paediatric pneumonia care. PARTICIPANTS: Healthcare providers (HCPs) from Malawi and Bangladesh who had received training in pulse oximetry and had been using oximeters in routine paediatric care, including community healthcare workers, non-physician clinicians or medical assistants, and hospital-based nurses and doctors. RESULTS: We conducted six FGDs, with 23 participants from Bangladesh and 26 from Malawi. We identified five emergent themes: trust, value, user-related experience, sustainability and design. HCPs discussed the confidence gained through the use of oximeters, resulting in improved trust from caregivers and valuing the device, although there were conflicts between the weight given to clinical judgement versus oximeter results. HCPs reported the ease of using oximeters, but identified movement and physically smaller children as measurement challenges. Challenges in sustainability related to battery durability and replacement parts, however many HCPs had used the same device longer than 4 years, demonstrating robustness within these settings. Desirable features included back-up power banks and integrated respiratory rate and thermometer capability. CONCLUSIONS: Pulse oximetry was generally deemed valuable by HCPs for use as a spot-check device in a range of paediatric low-income clinical settings. Areas highlighted as challenges by HCPs, and therefore opportunities for redesign, included battery charging and durability, probe fit and sensitivity in paediatric populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02941237.

Effects of women's groups practising participatory learning and action on preventive and care-seeking behaviours to reduce neonatal mortality: A meta-analysis of cluster-randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends participatory learning and action (PLA) in women's groups to improve maternal and newborn health, particularly in rural settings with low access to health services. There have been calls to understand the pathways through which this community intervention may affect neonatal mortality. We examined the effect of women's groups on key antenatal, delivery, and postnatal behaviours in order to understand pathways to mortality reduction. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a meta-analysis using data from 7 cluster-randomised controlled trials that took place between 2001 and 2012 in rural India (2 trials), urban India (1 trial), rural Bangladesh (2 trials), rural Nepal (1 trial), and rural Malawi (1 trial), with the number of participants ranging between 6,125 and 29,901 live births. Behavioural outcomes included appropriate antenatal care, facility delivery, use of a safe delivery kit, hand washing by the birth attendant prior to delivery, use of a sterilised instrument to cut the umbilical cord, immediate wrapping of the newborn after delivery, delayed bathing of the newborn, early initiation of breastfeeding, and exclusive breastfeeding. We used 2-stage meta-analysis techniques to estimate the effect of the women's group intervention on behavioural outcomes. In the first stage, we used random effects models with individual patient data to assess the effect of groups on outcomes separately for the different trials. In the second stage of the meta-analysis, random effects models were applied using summary-level estimates calculated in the first stage of the analysis. To determine whether behaviour change was related to group attendance, we used random effects models to assess associations between outcomes and the following categories of group attendance and allocation: women attending a group and allocated to the intervention arm; women not attending a group but allocated to the intervention arm; and women allocated to the control arm. Overall, women's groups practising PLA improved behaviours during and after home deliveries, including the use of safe delivery kits (odds ratio [OR] 2.92, 95% CI 2.02-4.22; I2 = 63.7%, 95% CI 4.4%-86.2%), use of a sterile blade to cut the umbilical cord (1.88, 1.25-2.82; 67.6%, 16.1%-87.5%), birth attendant washing hands prior to delivery (1.87, 1.19-2.95; 79%, 53.8%-90.4%), delayed bathing of the newborn for at least 24 hours (1.47, 1.09-1.99; 68.0%, 29.2%-85.6%), and wrapping the newborn within 10 minutes of delivery (1.27, 1.02-1.60; 0.0%, 0%-79.2%). Effects were partly dependent on the proportion of pregnant women attending groups. We did not find evidence of effects on uptake of antenatal care (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.77-1.38; I2 = 86.3%, 95% CI 73.8%-92.8%), facility delivery (1.02, 0.93-1.12; 21.4%, 0%-65.8%), initiating breastfeeding within 1 hour (1.08, 0.85-1.39; 76.6%, 50.9%-88.8%), or exclusive breastfeeding for 6 weeks after delivery (1.18, 0.93-1.48; 72.9%, 37.8%-88.2%). The main limitation of our analysis is the high degree of heterogeneity for effects on most behaviours, possibly due to the limited number of trials involving women's groups and context-specific effects. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis suggests that women's groups practising PLA improve key behaviours on the pathway to neonatal mortality, with the strongest evidence for home care behaviours and practices during home deliveries. A lack of consistency in improved behaviours across all trials may reflect differences in local priorities, capabilities, and the responsiveness of health services. Future research could address the mechanisms behind how PLA improves survival, in order to adapt this method to improve maternal and newborn health in different contexts, as well as improve other outcomes across the continuum of care for women, children, and adolescents.

Improving postpartum care delivery and uptake by implementing context-specific interventions in four countries in Africa: a realist evaluation of the Missed Opportunities in Maternal and Infant Health (MOMI) project.

Postpartum care (PPC) has remained relatively neglected in many interventions designed to improve maternal and neonatal health in sub-Saharan Africa. The Missed Opportunities in Maternal and Infant Health project developed and implemented a context-specific package of health system strengthening and demand generation in four African countries, aiming to improve access and quality of PPC. A realist evaluation was conducted to enable nuanced understanding of the influence of different contextual factors on both the implementation and impacts of the interventions. Mixed methods were used to collect data and test hypothesised context-mechanism-outcome configurations: 16 case studies (including interviews, observations, monitoring data on key healthcare processes and outcomes), monitoring data for all study health facilities and communities, document analysis and participatory evaluation workshops. After evaluation in individual countries, a cross-country analysis was conducted that led to the development of four middle-range theories. Community health workers (CHWs) were key assets in shifting demand for PPC by 'bridging' communities and facilities. Because they were chosen from the community they served, they gained trust from the community and an intrinsic sense of responsibility. Furthermore, if a critical mass of women seek postpartum healthcare as a result of the CHWs bridging function, a 'buzz' for change is created, leading eventually to the acceptability and perceived value of attending for PPC that outweighs the costs of attending the health facility. On the supply side, rigid vertical hierarchies and defined roles for health facility workers (HFWs) impede integration of maternal and infant health services. Additionally, HFWs fear being judged negatively which overrides the self-efficacy that could potentially be gained from PPC training. Instead the main driver of HFWs' motivation to provide comprehensive PPC is dependent on accountability systems for delivering PPC created by other programmes. The realist evaluation offers insights into some of the contextual factors that can be pivotal in enabling the community-level and service-level interventions to be effective.

Impact of the 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Clinical and Hypoxemic Childhood Pneumonia over Three Years in Central Malawi: An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine's (PCV) impact on childhood pneumonia during programmatic conditions in Africa is poorly understood. Following PCV13 introduction in Malawi in November 2011, we evaluated the case burden and rates of childhood pneumonia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between January 1, 2012-June 30, 2014 we conducted active pneumonia surveillance in children <5 years at seven hospitals, 18 health centres, and with 38 community health workers in two districts, central Malawi. Eligible children had clinical pneumonia per Malawi guidelines, defined as fast breathing only, chest indrawing +/- fast breathing, or, ≥1 clinical danger sign. Since pulse oximetry was not in the Malawi guidelines, oxygenation <90% defined hypoxemic pneumonia, a distinct category from clinical pneumonia. We quantified the pneumonia case burden and rates in two ways. We compared the period immediately following vaccine introduction (early) to the period with >75% three-dose PCV13 coverage (post). We also used multivariable time-series regression, adjusting for autocorrelation and exploring seasonal variation and alternative model specifications in sensitivity analyses. The early versus post analysis showed an increase in cases and rates of total, fast breathing, and indrawing pneumonia and a decrease in danger sign and hypoxemic pneumonia, and pneumonia mortality. At 76% three-dose PCV13 coverage, versus 0%, the time-series model showed a non-significant increase in total cases (+47%, 95% CI: -13%, +149%, p = 0.154); fast breathing cases increased 135% (+39%, +297%, p = 0.001), however, hypoxemia fell 47% (-5%, -70%, p = 0.031) and hospital deaths decreased 36% (-1%, -58%, p = 0.047) in children <5 years. We observed a shift towards disease without danger signs, as the proportion of cases with danger signs decreased by 65% (-46%, -77%, p<0.0001). These results were generally robust to plausible alternative model specifications. CONCLUSIONS: Thirty months after PCV13 introduction in Malawi, the health system burden and rates of the severest forms of childhood pneumonia, including hypoxemia and death, have markedly decreased.

Predicting Hospitalised Paediatric Pneumonia Mortality Risk: An External Validation of RISC and mRISC, and Local Tool Development (RISC-Malawi) from Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Clinical prediction tools may aide case classification, triage, and allocation of hospital resources. We performed an external validation of two published prediction tools and compared this to a locally developed tool to identify children admitted with pneumonia at increased risk for in-hospital mortality in Malawi. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) and modified RISC (mRISC) scores in a child pneumonia dataset prospectively collected during routine care at seven hospitals in Malawi between 2011-2014. RISC has both an HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected tool. A local score (RISC-Malawi) was developed using multivariable logistic regression with missing data multiply imputed using chained equations. Score performances were assessed using c-statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and likelihood statistics. RESULTS: 16,475 in-patient pneumonia episodes were recorded (case-fatality rate (CFR): 3.2%), 9,533 with complete data (CFR: 2.0%). The c-statistic for the RISC (HIV-uninfected) score, used to assess its ability to differentiate between children who survived to discharge and those that died, was 0.72. The RISC-Malawi score, using mid-upper arm circumference as an indicator of malnutrition severity, had a c-statistic of 0.79. We were unable to perform a comprehensive external validation of RISC (HIV-infected) and mRISC as both scores include parameters that were not routinely documented variables in our dataset. CONCLUSION: In our population of Malawian children with WHO-defined pneumonia, the RISC (HIV-uninfected) score identified those at high risk for in-hospital mortality. However the refinement of parameters and resultant creation of RISC-Malawi improved performance. Next steps include prospectively studying both scores to determine if incorporation into routine care delivery can have a meaningful impact on in-hospital CFRs of children with WHO-defined pneumonia.

Pulse oximetry for children with pneumonia treated as outpatients in rural Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate implementation of outpatient pulse oximetry among children with pneumonia, in Malawi. METHODS: In 2011, 72 health-care providers at 18 rural health centres and 38 community health workers received training in the use of pulse oximetry to measure haemoglobin oxygen saturations. Data collected, between 1 January 2012 and 30 June 2014 by the trained individuals, on children aged 2-59 months with clinically diagnosed pneumonia were analysed. FINDINGS: Of the 14 092 children included in the analysis, 13 266 (94.1%) were successfully checked by oximetry. Among the children with chest indrawing and/or danger signs, those with a measured oxygen saturation below 90% were more than twice as likely to have been referred as those with higher saturations (84.3% [385/457] vs 41.5% [871/2099]; P < 0.001). The availability of oximetry appeared to have increased the referral rate for severely hypoxaemic children without chest indrawing or danger signs from 0% to 27.2% (P < 0.001). In the absence of oximetry, if the relevant World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines published in 2014 had been applied, 390/568 (68.7%) severely hypoxaemic children at study health centres and 52/84 (61.9%) severely hypoxaemic children seen by community health workers would have been considered ineligible for referral. CONCLUSION: Implementation of pulse oximetry by our trainees substantially increased the referrals of Malawian children with severe hypoxaemic pneumonia. When data from oximetry were excluded, retrospective application of the guidelines published by WHO in 2014 failed to identify a considerable proportion of severely hypoxaemic children eligible only via oximetry.