Performance of risk models to predict mortality risk for patients with heart failure: evaluation in an integrated health system.

BACKGROUND: Referral of patients with heart failure (HF) who are at high mortality risk for specialist evaluation is recommended. Yet, most tools for identifying such patients are difficult to implement in electronic health record (EHR) systems. OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance and ease of implementation of Machine learning Assessment of RisK and EaRly mortality in Heart Failure (MARKER-HF), a machine-learning model that uses structured data that is readily available in the EHR, and compare it with two commonly used risk scores: the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic (MAGGIC) Heart Failure Risk Score. DESIGN: Retrospective, cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Data from 6764 adults with HF were abstracted from EHRs at a large integrated health system from 1/1/10 to 12/31/19. MAIN MEASURES: One-year survival from time of first cardiology or primary care visit was estimated using MARKER-HF, SHFM, and MAGGIC. Discrimination was measured by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Calibration was assessed graphically. KEY RESULTS: Compared to MARKER-HF, both SHFM and MAGGIC required a considerably larger amount of data engineering and imputation to generate risk score estimates. MARKER-HF, SHFM, and MAGGIC exhibited similar discriminations with AUCs of 0.70 (0.69-0.73), 0.71 (0.69-0.72), and 0.71 (95% CI 0.70-0.73), respectively. All three scores showed good calibration across the full risk spectrum. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that MARKER-HF, which uses readily available clinical and lab measurements in the EHR and required less imputation and data engineering than SHFM and MAGGIC, is an easier tool to identify high-risk patients in ambulatory clinics who could benefit from referral to a HF specialist.

Machine learning identification of patient clusters for cutaneous melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous melanoma is a cancer arising in melanocyte skin cells and is the deadliest form of skin cancer worldwide. Although some risk factors are known, accurate prediction of disease progression and probability for metastasis are difficult to ascertain, given the complexity of the disease and the absence of reliable predictive markers. Since early detection and treatment are essential to enhance survival, this study utilizing machine learning (ML) aims to further delineate additional risk factors associated with cutaneous melanoma. METHODS: A Bayesian Gaussian Mixture ML model was created with data from 2056 patients diagnosed with cutaneous melanoma and then used to group the patients into six Clusters based on a Silhouette Score analysis. A t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) model was used to visualize the six Clusters. RESULTS: Statistical analysis revealed that Cluster 4 showed a significantly higher rate of metastatic disease, as well as higher Breslow depth at diagnosis, compared to the other five Clusters. Compared to the other five Clusters, patients represented in Cluster 4 also had lower healthcare utilization, fewer dermatology clinic visits, fewer primary care providers, and less frequent colonoscopies and mammograms, and were more likely to smoke and less likely to have a prior diagnosis of basal cell carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: This study uncovers gaps in healthcare utilization of services among patient groups with cutaneous melanoma as well as possible implications for management of disease progression. Data-driven analyses emphasize the importance of routine clinic visits to dermatologists and/or primary care physicians (PCPs) for early detection and management of cutaneous melanoma. The findings from this study demonstrate that unsupervised ML methodology may serve to define the best candidate patients to benefit from enhanced dermatology/primary care which, in turn, is expected to improve outcomes for cutaneous melanoma.

Differences in the demographics, incidence, and survival of palmar and plantar acral melanoma: a population-based study.

Acral melanoma (AM) has the worst prognosis of all cutaneous malignant melanomas (CMM). Differences between palmar and plantar tumors have not been well characterized at the population level. The objective of this study was to investigate the differences in demographics, incidence, and survival between palmar and plantar AM. The 2004-2016 National Cancer Database (NCDB) and 2000-2018 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Results (SEER) databases were used to evaluate differences between palmar and plantar AM. Data were analyzed using Chi-square test, Fisher's exact, T-test, or likelihood ratio test. A total of 5002 participants were included in the study. A greater percentage of tumors occurred on the plantar surface (82.0%) than the palmar surface (18.0%). The incidence of plantar tumors is four times greater than palmar tumors (1.7 vs 0.4 cases per 1,000,000 people per year). Palmar melanomas were more likely to occur in Whites (84.6% vs 76.8%, p < 0.001) and be treated with amputation (28.1% vs 12.9%, p < 0.001) compared to plantar melanomas. Disease-specific five-year survival was similar for all palmar (80.8%) and plantar tumors (78.2%). While subtle differences do exist between palmar and plantar tumors, they behave similarly overall and should be treated as one entity.

Psoriasis exacerbation after COVID-19 vaccines: A brief report of the reported cases.

Despite the significant reduction of both morbidity and mortality after the introduction of many vaccines against COVID-19, recent reports indicated a worsening skin conditions in particular patients with psoriasis. We extracted the data of 51 patients from 19 papers. The mean age was 56.9 (SD = 16.2) years, with a male prevalence 45%. Of the 51 cases, vaccine types at which psoriasis flare occurred were as the following: Pfizer vaccine (30), AstraZeneca (9), Moderna (8), Coronavac (2) Covishield (1), and Covaxin (1). Exacerbation was common in the second dose of Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Covishield vaccines. Moreover, the onset of psoriasis exacerbation was shorter after the second dose of Pfizer (mean = 12.8 [SD = 15.2]) and AstraZeneca (mean = 7.4 [SD = 3.6]) rather than the first dose of both vaccines, respectively (mean = 19.2 [SD = 21.3]) and (mean = 18.5 [SD = 10.7]).

Dupilumab therapy in atopic dermatitis is safe during COVID-19 infection era: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 1611 patients.

The aim of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the safety of dupilumab use in the management of atopic dermatitis (AD) during the current pandemic regarding the risk and the hazards of COVID-19 infection. Seven databases (Google Scholar, Web of Science, Scopus, Virtual Health Library, PubMed, System for Information on Gray Literature in Europe, and The New York Academy of Medicine) were searched for eligible studies from inception until November 24, 2021. The quality of evidence was rated using the National Institute of Health and the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal tool. Meta-analysis was performed when the outcome is presented ≥2 studies. A total of 12 papers including 1611 AD patients were included in the study. The prevalence of COVID-19 in AD treated with dupilumab was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7-5.8). COVID-19 symptoms were reported by five patients who were presented with one or more of the following symptoms (fatigue, loss of taste and smell, runny nose, conjunctivitis, gastrointestinal symptoms, fever, cough, and dyspnea). Only three cases of COVID-19 were hospitalized with a prevalence of 4.5%, while no patients with COVID-19 died. Dupilumab is safe regarding the risk and the hazards of COVID-19 in AD patients. Thus, based on these results continuation of dupilumab in AD patients is recommended, since dupilumab seems to be safe and crucial for a better disease outcome.

Melanoma and hypertension: is there an association? A USA population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma is one of the three major types of skin cancer. In this study we aimed to investigate the association between melanoma and hypertension comorbidity. METHODS: We performed a population-based study using NHANES database during the period 1999-2004. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 24. RESULTS: Data for 12,446 individuals of which 146 had a diagnosis for melanoma were extracted. Melanoma group were older than the no melanoma group as 51% of the melanoma group were 60 years or elder; however 53.6% of the no melanoma group falls below 30 years old. Melanoma group had higher frequency of hypertension (37%) compared to the no melanoma group (22.5%). Logistic regression revealed that melanoma patients had higher odds of hypertension prevalence using the unadjusted model (odds ratio (OR): 2.03, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45-2.84, P<0.001). However, after controlling of all potential confounding factors the significance was lost (OR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.61-1.3, P=0.54). CONCLUSIONS: There may be a possible association of melanoma with hypertension comorbidity. With the limitations we faced, we encourage further research to confirm the association of melanoma and hypertension comorbidity.

THE demographics and trends in pediatric melanoma in the United States: An analysis of the National Cancer Database.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Relative to adults, rates of melanoma are lower in children. Due to its rarity, it is difficult to assess the incidence, trends, and outcomes of this malignancy. Much of our understanding comes from single institution or regional cancer registries which may not be large enough to detect subtleties in the burden of pediatric melanoma. METHODS: Data from the 2004 to 2016 National Cancer Database were analyzed; this database captures approximately 70% of all cancer diagnoses in the United States. RESULTS: Our analysis consisted of 1903 cases. A majority were White (89.8%), the mean age was 12.4 years, and the ratio of females: males was 1.2:1.0. The most common anatomic location was the trunk (31.1%). Between 2004 and 2016, a decreasing trend in the number of new melanoma cases was observed. Comparing histologic subtype by age, there was an increased percentage of nodular and epithelioid and spindle cell tumors in the pre-teen children and a greater percentage of superficial spreading tumors in teenagers. Overall, a majority of cases were stage 0 or I (56.9%), with relatively few stage IV cases (2.0%). A 5-year all-cause survival of greater than 90% was observed for stage I-III tumors, with stage IV tumors having a 5-year all-cause survival of 34.4%. CONCLUSION: Comparable to previous studies, pediatric melanoma occurred most often in Whites, females, and adolescents. However, we detected a decreasing trend in new cases, noted differences between histologic subtype and age, and observed a 5-year all-cause survival rate of greater than 90% for stage I-III tumors.

Association of bullous pemphigoid and comorbid health conditions: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Bullous pemphigoid is an autoimmune skin disease characterized by the formation of blisters between the epidermis and dermis. Comorbidities of pemphigoid have not been well-described. Identification of comorbidities associated with pemphigoid is important to decrease morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE: To identify the comorbid health conditions of bullous pemphigoid. METHODS: This was a case-control study of 91 cases of pemphigoid verified by clinical and laboratory diagnosis and 546 age- and sex-matched controls with complete follow-up at a large metropolitan quaternary care medical center. RESULTS: The average age of bullous pemphigoid patients was 76 years and 53% of patients were female. Forty-eight (53%) of the BP patients had a history of inpatient hospitalization, of which 22 (24.2%) were hospitalized for either previously undiagnosed BP or an exacerbation of BP. Bullous pemphigoid was significantly associated with hypertension [adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval)]: [2.03 (1.24-3.32)], diabetes mellitus [2.59 (1.60-4.19)], chronic kidney disease [2.29 (1.19-4.40)], end-stage renal disease [3.82 (1.48-9.85)], basal cell carcinoma of the skin [6.00 (1.94-18.6)], and obstructive sleep apnea [5.23 (2.45-11.19)]. 78% of BP patients used at least one systemic immunosuppressant. There was no significant association between treatments for pemphigoid and any of the comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Bullous pemphigoid patients need screening for comorbid health conditions even though treatment options do not seem to be associated with these comorbidities.

Risks for noncutaneous second primary malignancy in cutaneous malignant melanoma survivors: an analysis of data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program.

BACKGROUND: It is known that malignant melanoma (MM) survivors are at increased risk of future primary MM. However, the risk for noncutaneous second primary malignancies (SPMs) is not as well-understood. METHODS: An observational study utilizing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was performed, assessing data from patients diagnosed with primary cutaneous MM to measure overall, as well as specific, tumor type and risk of SPM. RESULTS: Of the 132,438 patients recruited in the study population (mean age 55.5 years; 54% male), 23,794 SPMs were observed (O) (18% of patients at a mean age of 68.8 years), while 17,923 SPMs were expected (E) to occur (O : E 1.33, 95% CI 1.31-1.34). Excluding cutaneous MM occurring as a new primary malignancy, there was a significantly increased risk for SPMs among cutaneous MM survivors for each of the following tumor types: eye and orbit melanoma, tracheal, thyroid, salivary gland, retroperitoneum, small intestine, kidney, lymphoid and hematopoietic system, lymphoma overall, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, lymphocytic leukemia overall, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, male genital system (including prostate), and breast. Certain gender-specific trends for SPMs were also detected. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with primary cutaneous MM are at increased risk for primary noncutaneous MM as well as noncutaneous SPMs that include numerous tumor types. Enhanced oncologic surveillance for a variety of tumor types in melanoma survivors is warranted.

Giant melanocytic nevi and soft tissue undergrowth in the left leg: Pathogenetic hypothesis.

Congenital melanocytic nevi (CMN) are observed frequently in children. The anomalous skin shows a widely variable clinical expression not only in the anatomic location, but also in color, morphology and superficial structure. According to the width CMN are distinguished in small, medium, large or giant. Aside the cosmetic problem and its psychological implications, CMN may present with severe complications consisting of malignant transformation and/or central nervous system involvement. We report on a 3-month old infant with an extensive CMN in the left leg, which extended from the lower portion of the knee to the foot, with satellite nevi. Concomitant with the extensive nevi in the same district a remarkable reduction in size was present, and involved the adipose and muscle tissues, contributing to a counterpart diameter difference of 5 cm, without bone involvement. Melanocytic nevi and soft tissue undergrowth in the leg is a usual association; a pathogenic explanation on the anomaly involving concomitantly the skin and the underneath soft tissues is advanced.

Hyperkalemia in women with acne exposed to oral spironolactone: A retrospective study from the RADAR (Research on Adverse Drug Events and Reports) program.

PURPOSE: The necessity of serum potassium monitoring for healthy women who are prescribed spironolactone for acne has been debated. The aim of this study was to compare the incidence of hyperkalemia in women 18 to 45 years of age to that in women 46 to 65 years of age, when treated with oral spironolactone for acne. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Data for all women 18 to 65 years of age who were prescribed oral spironolactone by a dermatologist for acne between January 2006 and October 2016 were extracted for analysis. Retrospective data were included for women who exhibited baseline serum potassium within the normal limits and who had repeat serum potassium monitoring within 12 months after initiation of spironolactone. The rate of incident hyperkalemia was determined. RESULTS: Of 618 women who received spironolactone for acne, 133 had serum potassium monitoring both before and after spironolactone initiation. Nine were excluded due to confounding comorbidities. Of the remaining 124 women, the mean age at initiation of spironolactone was 32 years (range, 18-57 years); 112 women were in the 18 to 45 years age group, and 12 were in the 46 to 65 years age group. All women had serum potassium within normal limits at baseline. Women in the 46 to 65 years age group had a significantly higher rate of incident hyperkalemia after spironolactone initiation compared with women 18 to 45 years of age (2 of 12 women [16.7%] vs. 1 of 112 women [< 1%]; p = .0245). CONCLUSIONS: Although controversy surrounds the clinical utility of serum potassium monitoring in healthy women exposed to spironolactone for acne, based on the findings from this large patient population, monitoring of serum potassium is warranted for women over 45 years of age given an age-related greater risk of hyperkalemia.