ABSTRACT
In this work we demonstrate how to automate parts of the infectious disease-control policy-making process via performing inference in existing epidemiological models. The kind of inference tasks undertaken include computing the posterior distribution over controllable, via direct policy-making choices, simulation model parameters that give rise to acceptable disease progression outcomes. Among other things, we illustrate the use of a probabilistic programming language that automates inference in existing simulators. Neither the full capabilities of this tool for automating inference nor its utility for planning is widely disseminated at the current time. Timely gains in understanding about how such simulation-based models and inference automation tools applied in support of policy-making could lead to less economically damaging policy prescriptions, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic.
ABSTRACT
AIM: To assess the association of inter-ethnic vs intra-ethnic marriage with severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) in men undergoing angiography. METHODS: We conducted a prospective multicenter, multi-ethnic, cross sectional observational study at five hospitals in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in which we used logistic regression analysis with and without adjustment for baseline differences. RESULTS: Data were collected for 1068 enrolled patients undergoing coronary angiography for clinical indications during the period of April 1st, 2013 to March 30th, 2014. Ethnicities of spouses were available only for male patients. Of those enrolled, 687 were married men and constituted the cohort for the present analysis. Intra-ethnic marriages were reported in 70% and inter-ethnic marriages in 30%. After adjusting for baseline differences, inter-ethnic marriage was associated with lower odds of having significant CAD [adjusted odds ratio 0.52 (95%CI: 0.33, 0.81)] or multi-vessel disease (MVD) [adjusted odds ratio 0.57 (95%CI: 0.37, 0.86)]. The adjusted association with left main disease showed a similar trend, but was not statistically significant [adjusted odds ratio 0.74 (95%CI: 0.41, 1.32)]. The association between inter-ethnic marriage and the presence of significant CAD and MVD was not modified by number of concurrent wives (P interaction > 0.05 for both). CONCLUSION: Among married men undergoing coronary angiography, inter-ethnic, as compared to intra-ethnic, marriage is associated with lower odds of significant CAD and MVD.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. The association of socioeconomic status with CAD is supported by numerous epidemiological studies. Whether such factors also impact the number of diseased coronary vessels and its severity is not well established. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective multicentre, multi-ethnic, cross sectional observational study of consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography (CAG) at 5 hospitals in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Baseline demographics, socioeconomic, and clinical variables were collected for all patients. Significant CAD was defined as ≥70% luminal stenosis in a major epicardial vessel. Left main disease (LMD) was defined as ≥50% stenosis in the left main coronary artery. Multi-vessel disease (MVD) was defined as having >1 significant CAD. RESULTS: Of 1,068 patients (age 59 ± 13, female 28%, diabetes 56%, hypertension 60%, history of CAD 43%), 792 (74%) were from urban and remainder (26%) from rural communities. Patients from rural centres were older (61 ± 12 vs 58 ± 13), and more likely to have a history of diabetes (63 vs 54%), hypertension (74 vs 55%), dyslipidaemia (78 vs 59%), CAD (50 vs 41%) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (27 vs 21%). The two groups differed significantly in terms of income level, employment status and indication for angiography. After adjusting for baseline differences, patients living in a rural area were more likely to have significant CAD (adjusted OR 2.40 [1.47, 3.97]), MVD (adjusted OR 1.76 [1.18, 2.63]) and LMD (adjusted OR 1.71 [1.04, 2.82]). Higher income was also associated with a higher risk for significant CAD (adjusted OR 6.97 [2.30, 21.09]) and MVD (adjusted OR 2.49 [1.11, 5.56]), while unemployment was associated with a higher risk of significant CAD (adjusted OR 2.21, [1.27, 3.85]). CONCLUSION: Communal and socioeconomic factors are associated with higher odds of significant CAD and MVD in the group of patients referred for CAG. The underpinnings of these associations (e.g. pathophysiologic factors, access to care, and system-wide determinants of quality) require further study.
ABSTRACT
Space applications have evolved to play a significant role in disaster relief by providing services including remote sensing imagery for mitigation and disaster damage assessments; satellite communication to provide access to medical services; positioning, navigation, and timing services; and data sharing. Common issues identified in past disaster response and relief efforts include lack of communication, delayed ordering of actions (eg, evacuations), and low levels of preparedness by authorities during and after disasters. We briefly summarize the Space for Health (S4H) Team Project, which was prepared during the Space Studies Program 2014 within the International Space University. The S4H Project aimed to improve the way space assets and experiences are used in support of public health during disaster relief efforts. We recommend an integrated solution based on nano-satellites or a balloon communication system, mobile self-contained relief units, portable medical scanning devices, and micro-unmanned vehicles that could revolutionize disaster relief and disrupt different markets. The recommended new system of coordination and communication using space assets to support public health during disaster relief efforts is feasible. Nevertheless, further actions should be taken by governments and organizations in collaboration with the private sector to design, test, and implement this system.
