How to improve outbreak response: a case study of integrated outbreak analytics from Ebola in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The emerging field of outbreak analytics calls attention to the need for data from multiple sources to inform evidence-based decision making in managing infectious diseases outbreaks. To date, these approaches have not systematically integrated evidence from social and behavioural sciences. During the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, an innovative solution to systematic and timely generation of integrated and actionable social science evidence emerged in the form of the Cellulle d'Analyse en Sciences Sociales (Social Sciences Analytics Cell) (CASS), a social science analytical cell. CASS worked closely with data scientists and epidemiologists operating under the Epidemiological Cell to produce integrated outbreak analytics (IOA), where quantitative epidemiological analyses were complemented by behavioural field studies and social science analyses to help better explain and understand drivers and barriers to outbreak dynamics. The primary activity of the CASS was to conduct operational social science analyses that were useful to decision makers. This included ensuring that research questions were relevant, driven by epidemiological data from the field, that research could be conducted rapidly (ie, often within days), that findings were regularly and systematically presented to partners and that recommendations were co-developed with response actors. The implementation of the recommendations based on CASS analytics was also monitored over time, to measure their impact on response operations. This practice paper presents the CASS logic model, developed through a field-based externally led consultation, and documents key factors contributing to the usefulness and adaption of CASS and IOA to guide replication for future outbreaks.

Nutrition indicators as potential predictors of AIDS-defining illnesses among ARV-naïve HIV-positive adults in Kapiri Mposhi, Zambia 2008-2009.

Early changes in nutritional status may be predictive of subsequent HIV disease progression in people living with HIV (PLHIV). In addition to conventional anthropometric assessment using body mass index (BMI) and mid-upper arm circumferences (MUAC), measures of strength and fatigability may detect earlier changes in nutrition status which predict HIV disease progression. This study aims to examine the association between various nutritional metrics relevant in resource-scarce setting and HIV disease progression. The HIV disease progression outcome was defined as any occurrence of an incident AIDS-defining illnesses (ADI) among antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naïve PLHIV. From 2008-2009, HIV+ Zambian adult men and non-pregnant women were followed for 9 months at a Doctors without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontiers, MSF) HIV clinic in Kapiri Mposhi, Zambia. Since the study was conducted in the time period when former WHO recommendations on ART (i.e., ≤200 CD4 cell count as opposed to treating all individuals regardless of CD4 cell count or disease stage) were followed, caution should be applied when considering the implications from this study's results to improve HIV case management under current clinical guidelines, or when comparing findings from this study with studies conducted in recent years. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the associations between baseline nutritional measurements and the outcome of incident ADI. Self-reported loss of appetite study (AOR 1.90, 95% CI 1.04, 3.45, P = 0.036) and moderate wasting based on MUAC classification (AOR 2.40, 95% CI 1.13, 5.10, P = 0.022) were independently associated with increased odds of developing incident ADI within 9 months, while continuous increments (in psi) of median handgrip strength (AOR 0.74, 95%CI 0.60, 0.91, P = 0.004) was independently associated with decreased odds of incident ADI only among women. The association between low BMI and the short-term outcome of ADI was attenuated after controlling for these nutritional indicators. These findings warrant further research to validate the consistency of these observed associations among larger ART-naïve HIV-infected populations, as well as to develop nutritional assessment tools for identifying disease progression risk among ART-naïve PLHIV.

Establishment of CDC Global Rapid Response Team to Ensure Global Health Security.

The 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa highlighted challenges faced by the global response to a large public health emergency. Consequently, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention established the Global Rapid Response Team (GRRT) to strengthen emergency response capacity to global health threats, thereby ensuring global health security. Dedicated GRRT staff can be rapidly mobilized for extended missions, improving partner coordination and the continuity of response operations. A large, agencywide roster of surge staff enables rapid mobilization of qualified responders with wide-ranging experience and expertise. Team members are offered emergency response training, technical training, foreign language training, and responder readiness support. Recent response missions illustrate the breadth of support the team provides. GRRT serves as a model for other countries and is committed to strengthening emergency response capacity to respond to outbreaks and emergencies worldwide, thereby enhancing global health security.

Low-dose RUTF protocol and improved service delivery lead to good programme outcomes in the treatment of uncomplicated SAM: a programme report from Myanmar.

The treatment of uncomplicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) requires substantial amounts of ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF). In 2009, Action Contre la Faim anticipated a shortfall of RUTF for their nutrition programme in Myanmar. A low-dose RUTF protocol to treat children with uncomplicated SAM was adopted. In this protocol, RUTF was dosed according to beneficiary's body weight, until the child reached a Weight-for-Height z-score of ≥-3 and mid-upper arm circumference ≥110 mm. From this point, the child received a fixed quantity of RUTF per day, independent of body weight until discharge. Specific measures were implemented as part of this low-dose RUTF protocol in order to improve service quality and beneficiary support. We analysed individual records of 3083 children treated from July 2009 to January 2010. Up to 90.2% of children recovered, 2.0% defaulted and 0.9% were classified as non-responders. No deaths were recorded. Among children who recovered, median [IQR] length of stay and weight gain were 42 days [28; 56] and 4.0 g kg(-1) day(-1) [3.0; 5.7], respectively. Multivariable logistic regression showed that children older than 48 months had higher odds of non-response to treatment than younger children (adjusted odds ratio: 3.51, 95% CI: 1.67-7.42). Our results indicate that a low-dose RUTF protocol, combined with specific measures to ensure good service quality and beneficiary support, was successful in treating uncomplicated SAM in this setting. This programmatic experience should be validated by randomised studies aiming to test, quantify and attribute the effect of the protocol adaptation and programme improvements presented here.

Measles outbreak response among adolescent and adult Somali refugees displaced by famine in Kenya and Ethiopia, 2011.

BACKGROUND: The refugee complexes of Dadaab, Kenya, and Dollo-Ado, Ethiopia, experienced measles outbreaks during June-November 2011, following a large influx of refugees from Somalia. METHODS: Line-lists from health facilities were used to describe the outbreak in terms of age, sex, vaccination status, arrival date, attack rates (ARs), and case fatality ratios (CFRs) for each camp. Vaccination data and coverage surveys were reviewed. RESULTS: In Dadaab, 1370 measles cases and 32 deaths (CFR, 2.3%) were reported. A total of 821 cases (60.1%) were aged ≥15 years, 906 (82.1%) arrived to the camps in 2011, and 1027 (79.6%) were unvaccinated. Camp-specific ARs ranged from 212 to 506 cases per 100 000 people. In Dollo-Ado, 407 cases and 23 deaths (CFR, 5.7%) were reported. Adults aged ≥15 years represented 178 cases (43.7%) and 6 deaths (26.0%). Camp-specific ARs ranged from 21 to 1100 cases per 100 000 people. Immunization activities that were part of the outbreak responses initially targeted children aged 6 months to 14 years and were later expanded to include individuals up to 30 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The target age group for outbreak response-associated immunization activities at the start of the outbreaks was inconsistent with the numbers of cases among unvaccinated adolescents and adults in the new population. In displacement of populations from areas affected by measles outbreaks, health authorities should consider vaccinating adults in routine and outbreak response activities.

Risk factors for measles mortality among hospitalized Somali refugees displaced by famine, Kenya, 2011.

BACKGROUND: Measles among displaced, malnourished populations can result in a high case fatality ratio. In 2011, a large measles outbreak occurred in Dadaab, Kenya, among refugees fleeing famine and conflict in Somalia. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of measles deaths among hospitalized patients during the outbreak. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study design was used to investigate measles mortality among hospitalized measles patients with a date of rash onset during 6 June-10 September 2011. Data were abstracted from medical records and a measles case was defined as an illness with fever, maculopapular rash, and either cough, coryza or conjunctivitis. Vaccination status was determined by patient or parental recall. Independent predictors of mortality were identified using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 388 hospitalized measles patients, 188 (49%) were from hospital X, 70 (18%) from hospital Y, and 130 (34%) from hospital Z; median age was 22 years, 192 (50%) were 15-29 years of age, and 22 (6%) were vaccinated. The mean number of days from rash onset to hospitalization varied by hospital (hospital X = 5, hospital Y = 3, hospital Z = 6; P < .0001). Independent risk factors for measles mortality were neurological complications (odds ratio [OR], 12.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1-52.4), acute malnutrition (OR, 7.6; 95% CI, 1.3-44.3), and admission to hospital Z (OR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.3-13.2). CONCLUSIONS: Among Somali refugees, in addition to timely vaccination at border crossing points, early detection and treatment of acute malnutrition and proper management of measles cases may reduce measles mortality.