Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.

Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all <15%, averagely 12.930%. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that LSTM has been applied and refined to perform multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.

Peripartum type B aortic dissection in patients with Marfan syndrome who underwent aortic root replacement: a case series study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate pregnancy outcomes, especially the risk of pregnancy-related aortic dissection (AD), in patients with Marfan syndrome (MFS) after prophylactic aortic root replacement (ARR). DESIGN: Retrospective case series study. SETTING: Tertiary perinatal care centre at a university hospital. POPULATION: Pregnant women fulfilling the revised Ghent nosology (2010) criteria for MFS who were managed at our institute. METHODS: The pregnancy outcomes of all patients with MFS managed at our institute between 1982 and September 2016 were reviewed retrospectively based on medical records. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Obstetrical management and complication including the incidence of AD throughout the peripartum period. RESULTS: Among 22 patients (28 pregnancies) who had been managed as potential MFS or related disorders, 14 (17 pregnancies) fulfilled the revised Ghent nosology (2010) criteria for MFS and were enrolled in this study. Five patients (five pregnancies) had received ARR before conception: three (60%) developed type B aortic dissection [AD(B)] during the peripartum period, compared with only one of 10 patients (12 pregnancies) without ARR (P < 0.05, Chi-square test). CONCLUSIONS: Our study results suggest that MFS patients after prophylactic ARR are still at high risk of AD(B) during the peripartum period. Careful pre-pregnancy counselling and multidisciplinary care throughout the peripartum period are essential for the management of MFS, even after surgical repair of an ascending aortic aneurysm. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: MFS patients after prophylactic ARR are still at high risk of type B aortic dissection during the peripartum period.

Cerebrovascular Accident Rate Is Different Between Centrifugal and Axial-Flow Pumps, but Survival and Driveline Infection Rates Are Similar.

OBJECTIVES: We analyzed the outcome of patients with implantable left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) at the University of Tokyo Hospital to compare those with centrifugal pumps (CE group: Duraheart and Evaheart) and those with axial-flow pumps (AX group: Heartmate II and Jarvik 2000). METHODS: A total of 68 patients who underwent implantation of LVADs (Duraheart: n = 15; Evaheart: n = 23; Heartmate II: n = 22; Jarvik 2000: n = 8) as a bridge to transplantation at our institution from May 2011 to April 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. All patients were followed through December 2015. RESULTS: The mean follow-up time of the CE group was 1.95 ± 0.92 year (total 74.1 patient-years) and that of the AX group was 1.56 ± 0.56 year (total 46.8 patient-years). Whether the patients underwent centrifugal or axial-flow pump implantations was not associated with survival or driveline infection according to log-rank test (1-year survival rate: 89% vs 100% [P = .221]; 1-year freedom rate: 40% vs 43% [P = .952]). The rates of freedom from cerebrovascular accident (CVA) at 1 year after LVAD implantation in the CE and AX groups were 70% and 96%, respectively (P < .001). The CE group showed a higher frequency of CVA (0.472 vs 0.021 event per patient-year). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that overall survival and driveline infection rates are similar between centrifugal and axial-flow pumps, but they suggest that patients with centrifugal pumps are more likely to develop CVAs than those with axial-flow pumps.

Association of the Number of HLA-DR Mismatches With Early Post-transplant Acute Cellular Rejection Among Heart Transplantation Recipients: A Cohort Study in Japanese Population.

BACKGROUND: Although many risk factors are reported about graft rejection after heart transplantation (HTx), the effect of HLA mismatch (MM) still remains unknown, especially in the Japanese population. The aim of the present study was to investigate the influence of HLA MM on graft rejection among HTx recipients in Japan. METHODS: We retrospectively investigated the association of the number of HLA MM including class I (A, B) and class II (DR) (for each locus MM: 0 to 2, total MM: 0 to 6) and the incidence of moderate to severe acute cellular rejection (ACR) confirmed by endomyocardial biopsy (International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation grade ≥ 3A/2R) within 1 year after HTx. RESULTS: Between 2007 and 2014, we had 49 HTx cases in our institute. After excluding those with insufficient data and positive donor-specific antigen, finally 35 patients were enrolled. Moderate to severe ACR was observed in 16 (45.7%) patients. The number of HLA-DR MM was significantly associated with the development of ACR (ACR+: 1.50 ± 0.63, ACR-: 1.11 ± 0.46, P = .029). From univariate analysis, DR MM = 2 was the only independent risk factor for ACR episodes (P = .017). The frequency of ACR within 1 year was significantly higher in those with DR MM = 2 (DR MM = 0 to 1: 0.3 ± 0.47, DR MM = 2: 1.17 ± 1.34 times, P = .007). CONCLUSIONS: The number of HLA-DR MMs was associated with the development and recurrence of ACR episodes among HTx recipients within 1 year after transplantation in Japanese population.

Terahertz-wave water concentration and distribution measurement in thin biotissue based on a novel sample preparation.

The measurement of water concentration and distribution in thin biotissues with terahertz (THz)-wave has been proposed. In this paper, a novel sample preparation approach was introduced to effectively preserve tissue freshness at room temperature. Excellent stability of this method was demonstrated by measuring the transmittance spectroscopy and imaging many times within a certain time. Moreover, the reliability of water volume concentration measurement with THz-wave was evaluated. Measurement results using THz-wave were in good agreement with volume concentration measurement results based on other quantitative methods. The results suggest that water concentration and distribution measurement in thin biotissues using THz-wave will be a potential modality for medical and biological diagnosis.

Sub-100 W picosecond output from a phase-conjugate Nd:YVO4 bounce amplifier.

We demonstrated >80 W picosecond output at a pulse repetition frequency of 100 MHz from a dual Nd:YVO(4) amplifier laser system consisting of a phase-conjugate Nd:YVO(4) bounce amplifier combined with a second diode-side-pumped Nd:YVO(4) bounce amplifier. The output exhibited high quality spatial form with M(2) < 1.8 and a pulse duration (FWHM) of 9.2 ps. A peak power of >7.4 MW with an average power of 78.5 W was also achieved at a pulse repetition frequency of 1.0 MHz.

Power scaling of a pico-second Nd:YVO(4) master-oscillator power amplifier with a phase-conjugate mirror.

We investigated design issues for the power scaling of a pico-second Nd:YVO(4) master-oscillator power amplifier system with a photorefractive phase-conjugate mirror by using standard beam propagation analysis. We also demonstrated a 25 W diffraction-limited pico-second output. A corresponding extraction efficiency of 31 % was achieved.

Correlation between operative outcomes of cervical compression myelopathy and mri of the spinal cord.

STUDY DESIGN: Magnetic resonance images of cervical compression myelopathy were retrospectively analyzed in comparison with surgical outcomes. OBJECTIVES: To investigate which magnetic resonance findings in patients with cervical compression myelopathy reflect the clinical symptoms and prognosis, and to determine the radiographic and clinical factors that correlate with the prognosis. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Signal intensity changes of the spinal cord on magnetic resonance imaging in chronic cervical myelopathy are thought to be indicative of the prognosis. However, the prognostic significance of signal intensity change remains controversial. METHODS: The participants in this study were 73 patients who underwent cervical expansive laminoplasty for cervical compression myelopathy. Their mean age was 64 years, and the mean postoperative follow-up period was 3.4 years. The pathologic conditions were cervical spondylotic myelopathy in 42 patients and ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament in 31 patients. Magnetic resonance imaging (spin-echo sequence) was performed in all the patients. The transverse area of the spinal cord at the site of maximal compression was computed, and spinal cord signal intensity changes were evaluated before and after surgery. Three patterns of spinal cord signal intensity changes on T1-weighted sequences/T2-weighted sequences were detected as follows: normal/normal, normal/high-signal intensity changes, and low-signal/high-signal intensity changes. Surgical outcomes were compared among these three groups. The most useful combination of parameters for predicting prognosis was determined using a stepwise regression analysis. RESULTS: The findings showed 2 patients with normal/normal, 67 patients with normal/high-signal, and 4 patients with low-signal/high-signal change patterns before surgery. Regarding postoperative recovery, the preoperative low-signal/high-signal group was significantly inferior to the preoperative normal/high-signal group. There was no significant difference between the transverse area of the spinal cord at the site of maximal compression in the normal/high-signal group and the low-signal/high-signal group. A stepwise regression analysis showed that the best combination of surgical outcome predictors included age (correlation coefficient R = -0.348), preoperative signal pattern, and duration of symptoms (correlation coefficient R = -0.231). CONCLUSIONS: The low-signal intensity changes on T1-weighted sequences indicated a poor prognosis. The authors speculate that high-signal intensity changes on T2 weighted images include a broad spectrum of compressive myelomalacic pathologies and reflect a broad spectrum of spinal cord recuperative potentials. Predictors of surgical outcomes are preoperative signal intensity change pattern of the spinal cord on radiologic evaluations, age at the time of surgery, and chronicity of the disease.

Tensile properties of rat anterior cruciate ligament in collagen induced arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effects of collagen induced arthritis (CIA) on the tensile properties of rat anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). METHODS: The tensile strength, bone mineral density (BMD), and histology of ACL units from rats with CIA were investigated. RESULTS: The tensile strength of the ACL unit was significantly lower in the rats with CIA at 10 weeks after immunisation (ultimate failure load, 74.9% of the control; stiffness, 62.0% of the control). The major mode of failure was femoral avulsion, and the BMD was significantly lower in the rats with CIA. A histological examination of the ligament insertion in rats with CIA showed resorption of the cortical bone beneath the ACL insertion and an enlarged mineralised fibrocartilage zone. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that the decrease in tensile strength of ACL units correlated with histological changes in the ligament-bone attachment, such as bone resorption beneath the ligament insertion site and an enlargement of the mineralised fibrocartilage zone.

Discoid lateral menisci in older patients. A radiographic study of 21 cases.

Twenty-three knees of 21 patients over 40 years of age with discoid lateral menisci were examined by radiography. The mean age of the patients was 59.7 years (range: 40-78 years). No patient had symptoms before the age of 40 and only 12 knees gave symptoms from the lateral compartment, although tears of a discoid lateral meniscus were diagnosed by arthrography in 21 of the 23 knees. Varus inclination occurred more frequently than valgus inclination. Subchondral bone sclerosis was more common in the medial compartment. However, high incidences of marginal osteophytes in the lateral compartment and morphological anomalies (cupping or flattening) of the lateral tibial plateau were revealed by radiography.

Radiological pathogenesis of cervical myelopathy in 60 consecutive patients with cervical ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament.

STUDY DESIGN: The radiological pathogenetic factors for cervical myelopathy in 60 consecutive patients with cervical ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) were investigated retrospectively. OBJECTIVE: To clarify which patients with OPLL will develop cervical myelopathy. METHODS: Sixty consecutive patients with OPLL were radiologically assessed comparing the myelopathic patient group (M group, n=41) and the mild or non-myelopathic patient group (non-M group, n=19). RESULTS: The narrowing ratio of the spinal canal in the M group (47.1%) was significantly greater (P=0.026) than that in the non-M group (38.3%). The two groups showed a significant difference (P=0.0016) with regard to the Pavlov ratio (M group, 0.73; non-M group, 0.84). The total range of motion of the cervical spine did not differ between the two groups but the per cent range of motion was significantly greater (P=0.037) in the M group than in the non-M group. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that factors important in the onset or aggravation of myelopathy are factors related to pathological compression by OPLL, cervical soft disc herniation, developmentally narrow spinal canal, and local or non-proportional hypermobility.

Effects of weight bearing on the tidemark and osteochondral junction of articular cartilage: histomorphometric analyses of 7 normal femoral heads.

To study the effect of weight bearing on the tidemark and osteochondral junction, we compared the morphology of these two boundaries in weight-bearing and less weight-bearing regions of normal human femoral heads. We measured the irregularities of the boundaries in the two regions using an X-Y digitizer connected to a computer in histological whole sections of femoral heads in 7 subjects without joint diseases. The irregularity of the tidemark was small, showing no difference between the two regions. However, the irregularity of the osteochondral junction in the weight-bearing region was greater than in the less weight-bearing region, which was confirmed by three-dimensional reconstructed images. Our findings suggest that mechanical stresses greatly influence the morphology of the osteochondral junction compared to the influence of such stresses on the tidemark, and that the marked irregularity of the osteochondral junction in the weight-bearing region is a reactive phenomenon against mechanical fragility due to simple contact between calcified cartilage and subchondral bone without fibrous connections.

Magnetic resonance imaging of meniscal degeneration in torn menisci: a comparison between anterior cruciate ligament deficient knees and stable knees.

Signal anomalies observed in magnetic resonance imaging of the intrameniscal tissue adjacent to the tear were compared between stable knees (group 1, 54 menisci) and anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) deficient knees (group 2, 98 menisci). The histological significance of these signal anomalies was also studied (n = 25). The frequency of intrameniscal signal anomalies adjacent to the tear was significantly lower in ACL-deficient knees than in ACL-stable knees (P = 0.0022). There was a close correlation between the imaging anomalies and the presence of histological lesions (fissures, degeneration) within meniscal tissues adjacent to the tear (sensitivity: 0.95, specificity: 0.60). Our results suggest that the severity of intrameniscal degenerative changes adjacent to the tear are lower in ACL-deficient knees than in ACL-stable knees.

Anomalies of ossification in the posterolateral femoral condyle: assessment by MRI.

BACKGROUND: Anomalies of ossification in the lower femoral epiphysis are often radiographically indistinguishable from juvenile osteochondritis dissecans. OBJECTIVE: To clarify the MRI characteristics of the anomalies of ossification in the posterolateral femoral condyle that distinguish it from juvenile osteochondritis dissecans. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively examined the medical records, plain radiographs (n = 4), MRI (n = 4) and follow-up MRI (n = 2) of four boys (age 8-11 years) with anomalies of ossification in the posterolateral femoral condyle. RESULTS: Plain radiography showed symmetrical marginal irregularity of the posterolateral femoral condyles of both knees. These lesions were asymptomatic, and the areas of irregular radiographic appearances reduced in size or disappeared without treatment within a mean observation period of 3.5 months. MRI showed a clearly demarcated low-intensity islet with the same signal intensity as subchondral bone (which was considered to be an accessory ossification nucleus) in a high-signal area in which the signal intensity was equal to that of normal articular cartilage. The areas observed as radiolucent zones on plain radiography were visualised at the same signal intensity as articular cartilage, and were continuous with articular cartilage on MRI; thus they were regarded as uncalcified cartilage. These MR findings are different from MR images of osteochondritis dissecans. CONCLUSIONS: MRI is considered to be the most effective non-invasive diagnostic method for these two conditions.

Anterior-posterior knee laxity increased by exercise. Quantitative evaluation of physiologic changes.

To quantify physiologic changes in anterior-posterior laxity of the normal knee caused acutely by exercise, we evaluated the exercise level and the duration of exercise needed to cause changes in laxity, the magnitude of changes in laxity, and the time needed for laxity to return to the level before exercise, by continuously applying a fixed exercise load. After a 20-minute run at 7 km/hr, anterior laxity with a displacement force of 133 N increased by about one third, and the compliance increased by one half with anterior drawer between 0 and 67 N. These changes were maintained at a similar level during exercise. The levels before exercise were restored gradually over 1 hour after exercise. As the muscle strength showed no changes during exercise, we consider these changes in laxity are not associated with a decrease in muscle strength. Furthermore, since the changes in knee laxity after triathlon (in which the knee is subjected to prolonged excessive exercise) are similar to those after running at 7 km/hr, we believe that the magnitude of changes in laxity after exercise is fixed, regardless of the level of the exercise load. Moreover, the threshold of exercise that causes the maximum change is low.

Quantitative evaluation of gait pattern in patients with osteoarthrosis of the knee before and after total knee arthroplasty. Gait analysis using a pressure measuring system.

Using a pressure measuring system, we quantitatively evaluated gait pattern in patients with osteoarthrosis (OA) of the knee before and after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). In the OA group, the stance time was longer, and the average vertical component of the floor reaction force (AVF) was lower than the values in normal age-matched subjects. These gait parameters correlated with the clinical score. These results suggest that changes in the gait parameters reflect gait patterns that reduce load on the knee. The center of pressure (COP) under the foot was correlated with the axial alignment of the lower limb in the mid-stance phase. In the TKA group, the clinical scores and gait parameters were improved 12 months after surgery compared with the preoperative values. The COP in the mid-stance phase moved inward after the TKA. However, in patients examined more than 2 years after a TKA, stance time and AVF did not reach normal levels, despite the patients' good clinical scores. These findings indicate that the gait pattern before surgery continues although pain on walking is reduced early after a TKA. Gait evaluation with a simple pressure measuring system revealed the changes in gait that are difficult to define by subjective clinical assessment.

Surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysms associated with malignancy.

Of 148 patients treated for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA), 33 (22%) also had cancer. According to the classification of Szilagyi, there were 13 patients in group I, 19 in group II, and 1 in group IV. In group I, the mean interval between the cancer and AAA operations was 7 years (range 1-14 years). Aneurysmectomy was performed in 9 patients, wrapping in 2, and no operation in 2. In group II, a two-stage operation was performed in 8 patients, a single-stage operation in 4, only surgery for cancer in 4, and no operation in 3. Of 4 patients undergoing single-stage operations, 3 had colorectal cancer, and there were no postoperative complications such as graft infection or anastomotic breakdown. In group I, 6 of 13 patients died, but there were no cancer deaths. In group II, 9 of 19 patients died, 6 from progressive cancer. The group IV patient also died of cancer. These results suggest that if a patient can tolerate surgery for both diseases, a single-stage operation is preferable.

Lung volume reduction surgery for pulmonary emphysema using dynamic Xenon-133 and Tc-99m-MAA SPECT images.

The usefulness of Xe-133 and Tc-99m-MAA single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) in identifying areas to be resected during video-assisted thoracoscopic lung reduction surgery for emphysema was examined. Twenty-nine patients with advanced emphysema were examined using Xe-133 and Tc-99m-MAA SPECT prior to and following surgery. For the Xe-133 dynamic SPECT, patients inhaled Xe-133 gas for 6 minutes. Equilibrium and subsequent washout SPECT images were acquired every 30 seconds for 6 to 7 minutes during spontaneous breathing. Ventilation was quantified by Xe-133 clearance time (T1/2) in addition to visual assessment. The patients underwent unilateral thoracoscopic volume reduction in the regions with abnormal Xe-133 retention and Tc-99m-MAA defect. All patients demonstrated marked, heterogeneous Xe-133 retention and Tc-99m-MAA defects preoperatively. The worst functioning areas were identified as nonventilated and noflow areas, or areas with air trapping and low perfusion. These changes were found even in patients with diffuse and symmetrical impairments on chest CT. After surgery, most of these "target areas" disappeared and pulmonary function tests demonstrated significant improvement. T1/2 correlated closely with the percent predicted FEV1 (%FEV) and 6-minute walk distance before and after surgery (p<0.0001). Xe-133 and Tc-99m-MAA SPECT imaging was useful in identifying "target areas" in the emphysematous lung. Directed unilateral thoracoscopic volume reduction based on these SPECT images is an effective treatment for emphysema.

Obstruction of the right ventricle outflow tract during right cardiac prolapse.

We observed cardiac prolapse following right pneumonectomy in which the patient experienced a 90 degree rotation of the heart and compression of right ventricular outflow tract from behind by the aorta, which led to an increase in right atrial pressure and a decrease of pulmonary artery pressure and cardiac output. Compression of the right ventricular outflow tract by the base of the aorta was observed as an additional shock inducing factor in right cardiac prolapse.

Systematic lymph node dissection for clinically diagnosed peripheral non-small-cell lung cancer less than 2 cm in diameter.

The value of radical systematic lymphadenectomy for treatment of early-stage bronchial carcinoma is controversial. We performed a prospective randomized study to address this question. Altogether 115 patients with peripheral non-small-cell lung cancers smaller than 2 cm in diameter were enrolled in this study. They were randomly assigned into a lobectomy with lymph node sampling group (sampling group, n = 56) or a lobectomy with radical systematic lymph node dissection group (dissection group, n = 59). Inclusion criteria were based only on preoperative clinical studies. Four tumors were larger than 2 cm postoperatively. One patient had disseminated disease, and two had intrapulmonary metastases discovered at surgery. Two patients had small-cell carcinoma. There were four with pathologic N1 disease and seven with N2 disease in the dissection group and three with N1 and eight with N2 disease in the sampling group. The numbers of local and distant recurrences were two and six, respectively, in the dissection group and two and five in the sampling group. The overall 5-year survival was 81% in the dissection group and 84% in the sampling group. No significant differences in the recurrence rate or survival was seen between the groups. Our results demonstrate that clinically evaluated peripheral non-small-cell carcinomas smaller than 2 cm in diameter do not require radical systematic mediastinal and hilar lymph node dissection.