ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases are the third leading cause of late death after liver transplantation (LT). A new score (PROCAM-Stroke) has been established to estimate the 10-year risk of cerebrovascular events (CBVE) in a German standard population. We evaluate the applicability of the PROCAM-Stroke for long-term follow-up after LT. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective study of 313 consecutive LTs was conducted. Six months after LT (T1) and 10 years after LT (T2), CBVE risk factors were recorded and PROCAM-Stroke was calculated. Ten (T2) and 20 years (T3) after LT, recipients were screened regarding CBVE. PROCAM-Stroke estimates of CBVE were compared with the incidence of observed CBVE. RESULTS: In both 10-year time frames, the incidence of observed CBVE was higher than expected based on the PROCAM-Stroke estimates: 6 months-10 years after LT (T1-T2): observed: 11, expected: 3.2; 10 years-20 years after LT (T2-T3): observed: 7, expected: 3.4. CONCLUSION: LT recipients seem to have a considerably increased risk of CBVE. Long-term surveillance should take this into account, and screening may be extended accordingly. The progressive impairment of renal function in the long-term LT survivors may be one reason for the underestimation of CBVE in this patient group.
Subject(s)
Cerebrovascular Disorders/diagnosis , Decision Support Techniques , Health Status Indicators , Liver Transplantation , Postoperative Complications/diagnosis , Adult , Aged , Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology , Cerebrovascular Disorders/etiology , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Postoperative Complications/epidemiology , Postoperative Complications/etiology , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Stroke/diagnosis , Stroke/epidemiology , Stroke/etiologyABSTRACT
Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the third leading cause of late death after liver transplantation (LT). The old PROCAM score was described in males (aged 35-65 yr) to estimate cardiovascular events after LT. New PROCAM is now available to estimate risks for cardiovascular events in both genders and for a wider age range (25-75 yr). We tested old and new PROCAM in long-term follow-up (10 and 20 yr) and described CVD risk factors, kidney function, and immunosuppression over two decades. A retrospective study of 313 consecutive LTs was conducted. At 10 (T2) and 20 (T3) yr, patients were screened for cardiovascular events, and for T1 (0.5 yr) and T2, CVD risk factors were recorded and old and new PROCAM calculated. PROCAM estimates were compared with observed events. CVD risk factors increased significantly over time and kidney function decreased. Between T1 and T2 in males, fewer events were observed (o) than estimated (e) (males: o: 3 vs. e: 6.05-9.88; females o: 2 vs. e: 1.35-4.21). For both genders, new PROCAM was appropriate between T2 and T3 (males o: 8; e: 4.5-8.57; females o: 2; e: 1.2-4.46). New PROCAM sufficiently estimates cardiovascular risk after LT, while overestimation in T1-T2 may be due to strict surveillance.
