Modeling the effect of seasonal variation in ambient temperature on the transmission dynamics of a pathogen with a free-living stage: example of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a dairy herd.

To explore the potential role of ambient temperature on infection transmission dynamics for pathogens, we used Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a dairy herd and the surrounding farm environment as a model system. For this system, we developed a mathematical model in which a Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model of infection spread through the host population is coupled with a metapopulation model of E. coli O157:H7 free-living stage in the environment allowing bacterial growth to be influenced by ambient temperature. Model results indicate that seasonal variation in ambient temperature could have a considerable impact on pathogen populations in the environment, specifically on barn surfaces and in water troughs, and consequently on the prevalence of infection in the host population. Based on model assumptions, contaminated drinking water was the most important pathway of E. coli O157:H7 transmission to cattle. Sensitivity analysis indicated that water-borne transmission is amplified during the warmer months if the amount of standing drinking water available to the cattle herd is high. This is because warmer ambient temperature favors faster pathogen replication which when combined with slower water replacement-rate due to high amount of available standing water leads to a greater pathogen load in drinking water. These results offer a possible explanation of the seasonal variation in E. coli O157:H7 prevalence in cattle and suggest that improved drinking-water management could be used for control of this infection in cattle. Our study demonstrates how consideration of ambient temperature in transmission cycles of pathogens able to survive and grow in the environment outside the host could offer novel perspectives on the spread and control of infections caused by such pathogens.

Metazoan parasite communities of sentinel bluegill caged in two urbanizing streams, San Antonio, Texas.

Urbanization has deleterious effects on water quality and biota in stream systems. This project used caged bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) to assess metazoan fish parasite communities in 2 urbanizing streams of the upper San Antonio River Basin, Bexar County, Texas. Field studies on Leon and Salado creeks were conducted during late summer in 1999 and 2000. Juvenile bluegill, obtained from a local aquaculturist, were held in cages for 10-22 days at middle and lower watershed sites to expose them to in-stream conditions and to allow parasite communities to establish. After removal from cages, fish were examined for metazoan parasites. In 2000, wild Lepomis spp. also were collected at study sites for parasite assessment. In both years, physical and chemical water properties were monitored at each site. Of the 120 fish examined for parasites, 96.7% were infected by at least 1 organism from among the 11 parasitic taxa observed. For caged fish, both diversity and equitability of parasite communities tended to be lower at the more eutrophic downstream sites; accordingly, parasite diversity and equitability were inversely correlated with nitrate concentrations. Ectoparasites were more prevalent in caged fish and endoparasites were more abundant in wild fish. An Ergasilus sp. copepod and a Posthodiplostomum sp. trematode dominated the ecto- and endoparasite faunas, respectively. This study suggests that assessment of watershed health can benefit from comparative cage studies of parasite community development involving sentinel fish species.