Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example.

We propose a new stochastic framework for analysing the dynamics of the immunity response of wildlife hosts against a disease-causing agent. Our study is motivated by the need to analyse the monitoring time-series data covering the period from 1975 to 1995 on bacteriological and serological tests-samples from great gerbils being the main host of Yersinia pestis in Kazakhstan. Based on a four-state continuous-time Markov chain, we derive a generalized nonlinear mixed-effect model for analysing the serological test data. The immune response of a host involves the production of antibodies in response to an antigen. Our analysis shows that great gerbils recovered from a plague infection are more likely to keep their antibodies to plague and survive throughout the summer-to-winter season than throughout the winter-to-summer season. Provided the seasonal mortality rates are similar (which seems to be the case based on a mortality analysis with abundance data), our finding indicates that the immune function of the sampled great gerbils is seasonal.

Phenotypic and molecular characterizations of Yersinia pestis isolates from Kazakhstan and adjacent regions.

Recent interest in characterizing infectious agents associated with bioterrorism has resulted in the development of effective pathogen genotyping systems, but this information is rarely combined with phenotypic data. Yersinia pestis, the aetiological agent of plague, has been well defined genotypically on local and worldwide scales using multi-locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA), with emphasis on evolutionary patterns using old isolate collections from countries where Y. pestis has existed the longest. Worldwide MLVA studies are largely based on isolates that have been in long-term laboratory culture and storage, or on field material from parts of the world where Y. pestis has potentially circulated in nature for thousands of years. Diversity in these isolates suggests that they may no longer represent the wild-type organism phenotypically, including the possibility of altered pathogenicity. This study focused on the phenotypic and genotypic properties of 48 Y. pestis isolates collected from 10 plague foci in and bordering Kazakhstan. Phenotypic characterization was based on diagnostic tests typically performed in reference laboratories working with Y. pestis. MLVA was used to define the genotypic relationships between the central-Asian isolates and a group of North American isolates, and to examine Kazakh Y. pestis diversity according to predefined plague foci and on an intermediate geographical scale. Phenotypic properties revealed that a large portion of this collection lacks one or more plasmids necessary to complete the blocked flea/mammal transmission cycle, has lost Congo red binding capabilities (Pgm-), or both. MLVA analysis classified isolates into previously identified biovars, and in some cases groups of isolates collected within the same plague focus formed a clade. Overall, MLVA did not distinguish unique phylogeographical groups of Y. pestis isolates as defined by plague foci and indicated higher genetic diversity among older biovars.