Impact of Preexisting Heart Failure on Treatment and Outcomes in Older Patients With Hodgkin Lymphoma.

Background: Older patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) often have comorbid cardiovascular disease; however, the impact of pre-existing heart failure (HF) on the management and outcomes of HL is unknown. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of pre-existing HF in older patients with HL and its impact on treatment and outcomes. Methods: Linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and Medicare data from 1999 to 2016 were used to identify patients 65 years and older with newly diagnosed HL. Pre-existing HF, comorbidities, and cancer treatment were ascertained from billing codes and cause-specific mortality from SEER. The associations between pre-existing HF and cancer treatment were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for comorbidities and cancer treatment were used to estimate the association between pre-existing HF and cause-specific mortality. Results: Among 3,348 patients (mean age 76 ± 7 years, 48.6% women) with newly diagnosed HL, pre-existing HF was present in 437 (13.1%). Pre-existing HF was associated with a lower likelihood of using anthracycline-based chemotherapy regimens (OR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.29-0.60) and a higher likelihood of lymphoma mortality (HR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.06-1.46) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 2.57; 95% CI: 1.96-3.36) in models adjusted for comorbidities. One-year lymphoma mortality cumulative incidence was 37.4% (95% CI: 35.5%-39.5%) with pre-existing HF and 26.3% (95% CI: 25.0%-27.6%) without pre-existing HF. The cardioprotective medications dexrazoxane and liposomal doxorubicin were used in only 4.2% of patients. Conclusions: Pre-existing HF in older patients with newly diagnosed HL is common and associated with higher 1-year mortality. Strategies are needed to improve lymphoma and cardiovascular outcomes in this high-risk population.

Patent Foramen Ovale Closure in Older Patients With Stroke: Patient Selection for Trial Feasibility.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Whether patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure benefits older patients with PFO and cryptogenic stroke is unknown because randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have predominantly enrolled patients younger than 60 years of age. Our objective was to estimate anticipated effects of PFO closure in older patients to predict the numbers needed to plan an RCT. METHODS: Effectiveness estimates are derived from major observational studies (Risk of Paradoxical Embolism [RoPE] Study and Oxford Vascular Study, together referred to as the "RoPE-Ox" database) and all 6 major RCTs (Systematic, Collaborative, PFO Closure Evaluation [SCOPE] Consortium). To estimate stroke recurrence risk, observed outcomes were calculated for patients older than 60 years in the age-inclusive observational databases (n = 549). To estimate the reduction in the rate of recurrent stroke associated with PFO closure vs medical therapy based on the RoPE score and the presence of high-risk PFO features, a Cox proportional hazards regression model was developed on the RCT data in the SCOPE database (n = 3,740). These estimates were used to calculate sample sizes required for a future RCT. RESULTS: Five-year risk of stroke recurrence using Kaplan-Meier estimates was 13.7 (95% CI 10.5-17.9) overall, 14.9% (95% CI 10.2-21.6) in those with high-risk PFO features. Predicted relative reduction in the event rate with PFO closure was 12.9% overall, 48.8% in those with a high-risk PFO feature. Using these estimates, enrolling all older patients with cryptogenic stroke and PFO would require much larger samples than those used for prior PFO closure trials, but selectively enrolling patients with high-risk PFO features would require totals of 630 patients for 90% power and 471 patients for 80% power, with an average of 5 years of follow-up. DISCUSSION: Based on our projections, anticipated effect sizes in older patients with high-risk features make a trial in these subjects feasible. With lengthening life expectancy in almost all regions of the world, the utility of PFO closure in older adults is increasingly important to explore.

Racial differences in measures of glycemia in the Vitamin D and Type 2 Diabetes (D2d) Study: a secondary analysis of a randomized trial.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding how race may influence the association between A1c and glycemia can improve diabetes screening. We sought to determine whether, for a given A1c level, glucose levels during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) differed by race. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: From data collected at 22 US clinical sites, we conducted a cross-sectional study of concurrently measured A1c and OGTT and observational longitudinal follow-up of the subset with high-risk pre-diabetes. Numerical integration methods were used to calculate area under the glycemic curve (AUCglu) during OGTT and least squares regression model to estimate A1c for a given AUCglu by race, controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: 1016 black, 2658 white, and 193 Asian persons at risk of diabetes were included in cross-sectional analysis. Of these, 2154 with high-risk pre-diabetes were followed for 2.5 years. For a given A1c level, AUCglu was lower in black versus white participants. After adjustment for potential confounders, A1c levels for a given AUCglu quintile were 0.15-0.20 and 0.02-0.19 percentage points higher in black and Asian compared with white participants, respectively (p<0.05). In longitudinal analyses, black participants were more likely to be diagnosed with diabetes by A1c than white participants (28% vs 10%, respectively; p<0.01). Black and Asian participants were less likely to be diagnosed by fasting glucose than white participants (16% vs 15% vs 37%, respectively; p<0.05). Black participants with A1c levels in the lower-level quintiles had greater increase in A1c over time compared with white participants. CONCLUSIONS: Use of additional testing beyond A1c to screen for diabetes may better stratify diabetes risk in the diverse US population.

A Clinical Model to Predict the Occurrence of Select High-risk Infections in the First Year Following Heart Transplantation.

Background: Invasive infection remains a dangerous complication of heart transplantation (HT). No objectively defined set of clinical risk factors has been established to reliably predict infection in HT. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction model for use at 1 mo post-HT to predict serious infection by 1 y. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of HT recipients (2000-2018) was performed. The composite endpoint included cytomegalovirus (CMV), herpes simplex or varicella zoster virus infection, blood stream infection, invasive fungal, or nocardial infection occurring 1 mo to 1 y post-HT. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was constructed using 10 candidate variables. A concordance statistic, calibration curve, and mean calibration error were calculated. A scoring system was derived for ease of clinical application. Results: Three hundred seventy-five patients were analyzed; 93 patients experienced an outcome event. All variables remained in the final model: aged 55 y or above, history of diabetes, need for renal replacement therapy in first month, CMV risk derived from donor and recipient serology, use of induction and/or early lymphodepleting therapy in the first month, use of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis at 1 mo, lymphocyte count under 0.75 × 103cells/µL at 1 mo, and inpatient status at 1 mo. Good discrimination (C-index 0.80) and calibration (mean absolute calibration error 3.6%) were demonstrated. Conclusion: This model synthesizes multiple highly relevant clinical parameters, available at 1 mo post-HT, into a unified, objective, and clinically useful prediction tool for occurrence of serious infection by 1 y post-HT.

Stratifying future stroke risk with incidentally-discovered white matter disease severity and covert brain infarct site.

BACKGROUND: Covert cerebrovascular disease (CCD) includes white matter disease (WMD) and covert brain infarction (CBI). Incidentally-discovered CCD is associated with increased risk of subsequent symptomatic stroke. However, it is unknown whether the severity of WMD or the location of CBI predicts risk. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of incidentally-discovered WMD severity and CBI location with risk of subsequent symptomatic stroke. METHOD: This retrospective cohort study includes patients 50 years old in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system who received neuroimaging for a non-stroke indication between 2009-2019. Incidental CBI and WMD were identified via natural language processing of the neuroimage report, and WMD severity was classified into grades. RESULTS: 261,960 patients received neuroimaging; 78,555 (30.0%) were identified to have incidental WMD, and 12,857 (4.9%) to have incidental CBI. Increasing WMD severity is associated with increased incidence rate of future stroke. However, the stroke incidence rate in CT-identified WMD is higher at each level of severity compared to rates in MRI-identified WMD. Patients with mild WMD via CT have a stroke incidence rate of 24.9 per 1,000 person-years, similar to that of patients with severe WMD via MRI. Among incidentally-discovered CBI patients with a determined CBI location, 97.9% are subcortical rather than cortical infarcts. CBI confers a similar risk of future stroke, whether cortical or subcortical, or whether MRI- or CT-detected. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing severity of incidental WMD is associated with an increased risk of future symptomatic stroke, dependent on the imaging modality. Subcortical and cortical CBI conferred similar risks.

When should a university student be allowed academic accommodations for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder? A position statement for a unified procedure for use in Brazil

In higher education, reasonable accommodations are increasingly made for students with a wide range of disabilities. However, rigorous assessment is paramount to ensure these students are supported while preventing ineligible students from gaining unfair advantages. In this context, we sought to identify under which circumstances a university student should be allowed academic accommodation for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and to outline an evidence-based policy for use in Brazil based on the global experience. We reviewed the literature to acquire information on what documents are commonly required by disability services before accommodations for ADHD are provided (including detection of malingering) and scrutinized the eligibility criteria of leading universities worldwide. Finally, renowned experts in the field and national stakeholders were consulted. Despite an exhaustive search, we found no international standard for the assessment of students with ADHD who request academic accommodation; even renowned institutions worldwide differ in their approaches to granting accommodations on the grounds of ADHD. Therefore, we propose a unified set of nationwide criteria for Brazilian universities, which could be generalized internationally. Higher education institutions in Brazil and beyond may benefit from adoption of such criteria.

Effect of vitamin D on regression to normal glucose regulation and individual glycemic measures: A secondary analysis among participants adherent to the trial protocol in the randomized clinical trial vitamin D and type 2 diabetes (D2d) study.

AIMS: To examine the effect of vitamin D on regression to normal glucose regulation (NGR) and individual glycemic measures in the D2d study. METHODS: In per-protocol analyses, we examined time to new-onset diabetes; time to new-onset NGR defined as first occurrence of: 2-or-3 glycemic criteria in the normal range (NGR-1) or fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-hour post-load-glucose (2hPG) in the normal range (NGR-2); proportion meeting NGR at the last study visit; and change in FPG, 2hPG, and HbA1c. RESULTS: Among 2423 participants, hazard ratio [HR] for diabetes was 0.84 [95%CI, 0.71, 0.99]). HR (95%CI) was 1.16 (0.99, 1.36) for new-onset NGR-1 and 1.06 (0.87, 1.30) for NGR-2. At the last visit, NGR-1 occurred in 12.4% vs. 9.5% participants in the vitamin D vs. placebo group (rate ratio for vitamin D 1.31 [1.02, 1.70]); whereas, NGR-2 occurred in 8.7% vs. 6.0% (rate ratio for vitamin D 1.45 [1.05, 2.00]). During follow-up, FPG, HbA1c, and 2hPG increased in both groups. Mean difference in FPG favored vitamin D (-0.80 mg/dL; 95%CI, -1.26, -0.33). CONCLUSIONS: In secondary analyses among participants adherent to the trial protocol, vitamin D lowered risk of developing diabetes and increased likelihood of NGR at the end of the study.

When should a university student be allowed academic accommodation For ADHD? A position statement for a unified procedure for use in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To identify under what circumstances a university student should be allowed academic accommodation for ADHD. To frame an evidence-based policy for use in Brazil based on a worldwide experience. METHODS: We reviewed the literature to acquire information on what documents are commonly required by disability services before accommodation for ADHD is made (including malingering detection). We scrutinized the eligibility criteria of the best universities worldwide. Renowned experts in the field and national stakeholders were consulted. RESULTS: We found no international standard for the assessment of students with ADHD who request academic accommodation. Even renowned institutions worldwide differ from one another in their approaches to academic accommodation on the grounds of ADHD. We propose a national unified set of criteria for Brazilian universities, which could generalize internationally. DISCUSSION: Rigorous assessment is paramount for aiding students with disabilities while preventing ineligible students gaining an unfair advantage. Higher education institutions nationwide and beyond may benefit from adopting a unified set of criteria for eligibility to ADHD accommodation programs.

Indices of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis in prediabetes and association with diabetes development in the vitamin D and type 2 diabetes study.

AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common comorbidity that leads to poor outcomes in people at high risk for development of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Vitamin D is a possible mediator. In the vitamin D and type 2 diabetes study (D2d), we investigated the relationship of baseline indices of NAFLD with incident T2D and whether the effect of vitamin D on diabetes was modified by NAFLD. METHODS: Cross-sectional associations of indices of NAFLD with glycemia and vitamin D status were assessed in 3972 individuals screened for the D2d study. In those with prediabetes randomized to vitamin D or placebo (n = 2423), we examined longitudinal associations of NAFLD indices with incident T2D. We used validated non-invasive scores to assess steatosis [(hepatic steatosis index (HSI); NAFLD-liver fat score (NAFLD-LFS)] and advanced fibrosis [fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index; AST to Platelet Ratio Index (APRI)]. RESULTS: Eighty-five percent of screened participants had likely steatosis by HSI and 71 % by NAFLD-LFS; 3 % were likely to have advanced fibrosis by FIB-4 and 1.2 % by APRI. FIB-4 indicated that 20.4 % of individuals require further follow up to assess liver health. Steatosis and fibrosis scores were higher among participants with worse glycemia. The NAFLD-LFS and APRI predicted development of diabetes (hazard ratios [95%CI] 1.35 [1.07, 1.70]; P = 0.012) and 2.36 (1.23, 4.54; P = 0.010), respectively). The effect of vitamin D on diabetes risk was not modified by baseline NAFLD indices. Individuals with likely steatosis had a smaller increase in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level in response to vitamin D than those without steatosis. CONCLUSIONS: The predicted high prevalence of steatosis, the need for further fibrosis workup, and the relationship between liver health and incident T2D suggest that routine screening with clinically accessible scores may be an important strategy to reduce disease burden.

Effect of intratrial mean 25(OH)D concentration on diabetes risk, by race and weight: an ancillary analysis in the D2d study.

BACKGROUND: Higher serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] is associated with lower type 2 diabetes risk. 25(OH)D varies due to skin pigmentation and weight. OBJECTIVES: This analysis aims to determine whether the effect of vitamin D differs among people of color and those with overweight/obesity (who have higher diabetes risk) compared with individuals who are White or have normal weight. METHODS: The D2d study is a randomized clinical trial in people with prediabetes that tested the effects of daily vitamin D3 4000 IU vs. placebo on diabetes risk (median followup 2.5 y). We compared baseline and intratrial mean 25(OH)D concentrations, defined as the mean of all available annual 25(OH)D values, among groups defined by self-reported race and body mass index (BMI). We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the associations between intratrial mean 25(OH)D and diabetes risk by race- and BMI-based groups. RESULTS: Asian (n=130), Black (n=616), and White (n=1616) participants were included. Both baseline and intratrial mean 25(OH)D concentrations differed significantly by race groups (both P < 0.001) and were lower in Asian and Black vs. White participants, and in those with higher vs. lower BMI adjusted for race (both P < 0.001). Compared with those with lower concentrations, Black and White participants with intratrial mean 25(OH)D ≥ 40 ng/mL had significantly reduced diabetes risk [HR (95% CI): Black: 0.51 (0.29, 0.92); White: 0.42 (0.30, 0.60)] and with a similar reduction in diabetes risk among Asian participants: 0.39 (0.14, 1.11). Compared with those with lower concentrations, participants with baseline BMI < 40 kg/m2 who achieved intratrial mean 25(OH)D concentrations ≥ 40 ng/mL had a significantly reduced diabetes risk. There was no statistically significant interaction between intratrial 25(OH)D and race or between intratrial 25(OH)D and BMI on diabetes risk. CONCLUSIONS: Among people with prediabetes, particularly for Black and White race groups and those with BMI < 40 kg/m2, the optimal 25(OH)D concentration may be ≥ 40 ng/mL to optimize diabetes-prevention efforts. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01942694.

Association of Preexisting Heart Failure With Outcomes in Older Patients With Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma.

Importance: Anthracycline-containing regimens are highly effective for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL); however, patients with preexisting heart failure (HF) may be less likely to receive anthracyclines and may be at higher risk of lymphoma mortality. Objective: To assess the prevalence of preexisting HF in older patients with DLBCL and its association with treatment patterns and outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal cohort study used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare registry from 1999 to 2016. The SEER registry is a system of population-based cancer registries, capturing more than 25% of the US population. Linkage to Medicare offers additional information from billing claims. This study included individuals 65 years and older with newly diagnosed DLBCL from 2000 to 2015 with Medicare Part A or B continuously in the year prior to lymphoma diagnosis. Data were analyzed from September 2020 to December 2022. Exposures: Preexisting HF in the year prior to DLBCL diagnosis ascertained from billing codes required one of the following: (1) 1 primary inpatient discharge diagnosis, (2) 2 outpatient diagnoses, (3) 3 secondary inpatient discharge diagnoses, (4) 3 emergency department diagnoses, or (5) 2 secondary inpatient discharge diagnoses plus 1 outpatient diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was anthracycline-based treatment. The secondary outcomes were (1) cardioprotective medications and (2) cause-specific mortality. The associations between preexisting HF and cancer treatment were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. The associations between preexisting HF and cause-specific mortality were evaluated using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for comorbidities and cancer treatment. Results: Of 30 728 included patients with DLBCL, 15 474 (50.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 77.8 (7.2) years. Preexisting HF at lymphoma diagnosis was present in 4266 patients (13.9%). Patients with preexisting HF were less likely to be treated with an anthracycline (odds ratio, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.49-0.61). Among patients with preexisting HF who received an anthracycline, dexrazoxane or liposomal doxorubicin were used in 78 of 1119 patients (7.0%). One-year lymphoma mortality was 41.8% (95% CI, 40.5-43.2) with preexisting HF and 29.6% (95% CI, 29.0%-30.1%) without preexisting HF. Preexisting HF was associated with higher lymphoma mortality in models adjusting for baseline and time-varying treatment factors (hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.18-1.31). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, preexisting HF in patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL was common and was associated with lower use of anthracyclines and lower use of any chemotherapy. Trials are needed for this high-risk population.

Vitamin D and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in People With Prediabetes : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Individual Participant Data From 3 Randomized Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: The role of vitamin D in people who are at risk for type 2 diabetes remains unclear. PURPOSE: To evaluate whether administration of vitamin D decreases risk for diabetes among people with prediabetes. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Embase, and ClinicalTrials.gov from database inception through 9 December 2022. STUDY SELECTION: Eligible trials that were specifically designed and conducted to test the effects of oral vitamin D versus placebo on new-onset diabetes in adults with prediabetes. DATA EXTRACTION: The primary outcome was time to event for new-onset diabetes. Secondary outcomes were regression to normal glucose regulation and adverse events. Prespecified analyses (both unadjusted and adjusted for key baseline variables) were conducted according to the intention-to-treat principle. DATA SYNTHESIS: Three randomized trials were included, which tested cholecalciferol, 20 000 IU (500 mcg) weekly; cholecalciferol, 4000 IU (100 mcg) daily; or eldecalcitol, 0.75 mcg daily, versus matching placebos. Trials were at low risk of bias. Vitamin D reduced risk for diabetes by 15% (hazard ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75 to 0.96]) in adjusted analyses, with a 3-year absolute risk reduction of 3.3% (CI, 0.6% to 6.0%). The effect of vitamin D did not differ in prespecified subgroups. Among participants assigned to the vitamin D group who maintained an intratrial mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level of at least 125 nmol/L (≥50 ng/mL) compared with 50 to 74 nmol/L (20 to 29 ng/mL) during follow-up, cholecalciferol reduced risk for diabetes by 76% (hazard ratio, 0.24 [CI, 0.16 to 0.36]), with a 3-year absolute risk reduction of 18.1% (CI, 11.7% to 24.6%). Vitamin D increased the likelihood of regression to normal glucose regulation by 30% (rate ratio, 1.30 [CI, 1.16 to 1.46]). There was no evidence of difference in the rate ratios for adverse events (kidney stones: 1.17 [CI, 0.69 to 1.99]; hypercalcemia: 2.34 [CI, 0.83 to 6.66]; hypercalciuria: 1.65 [CI, 0.83 to 3.28]; death: 0.85 [CI, 0.31 to 2.36]). LIMITATIONS: Studies of people with prediabetes do not apply to the general population. Trials may not have been powered for safety outcomes. CONCLUSION: In adults with prediabetes, vitamin D was effective in decreasing risk for diabetes. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None. (PROSPERO: CRD42020163522).

US and Dutch Perspectives on the Use of COVID-19 Clinical Prediction Models: Findings from a Qualitative Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical prediction models (CPMs) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may support clinical decision making, treatment, and communication. However, attitudes about using CPMs for COVID-19 decision making are unknown. METHODS: Online focus groups and interviews were conducted among health care providers, survivors of COVID-19, and surrogates (i.e., loved ones/surrogate decision makers) in the United States and the Netherlands. Semistructured questions explored experiences about clinical decision making in COVID-19 care and facilitators and barriers for implementing CPMs. RESULTS: In the United States, we conducted 4 online focus groups with 1) providers and 2) surrogates and survivors of COVID-19 between January 2021 and July 2021. In the Netherlands, we conducted 3 focus groups and 4 individual interviews with 1) providers and 2) surrogates and survivors of COVID-19 between May 2021 and July 2021. Providers expressed concern about CPM validity and the belief that patients may interpret CPM predictions as absolute. They described CPMs as potentially useful for resource allocation, triaging, education, and research. Several surrogates and people who had COVID-19 were not given prognostic estimates but believed this information would have supported and influenced their decision making. A limited number of participants felt the data would not have applied to them and that they or their loved ones may not have survived, as poor prognosis may have suggested withdrawal of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Many providers had reservations about using CPMs for people with COVID-19 due to concerns about CPM validity and patient-level interpretation of the outcome predictions. However, several people who survived COVID-19 and their surrogates indicated that they would have found this information useful for decision making. Therefore, information provision may be needed to improve provider-level comfort and patient and surrogate understanding of CPMs. HIGHLIGHTS: While clinical prediction models (CPMs) may provide an objective means of assessing COVID-19 prognosis, provider concerns about CPM validity and the interpretation of CPM predictions may limit their clinical use.Providers felt that CPMs may be most useful for resource allocation, triage, research, or educational purposes for COVID-19.Several survivors of COVID-19 and their surrogates felt that CPMs would have been informative and may have aided them in making COVID-19 treatment decisions, while others felt the data would not have applied to them.

Stratifying Future Stroke Risk with Incidentally Discovered White Matter Disease Severity and Covert Brain Infarct Site.

BACKGROUND: Covert cerebrovascular disease (CCD) includes white matter disease (WMD) and covert brain infarction (CBI). Incidentally discovered CCD is associated with increased risk of subsequent symptomatic stroke. However, it is unknown whether the severity of WMD or the location of CBI predicts risk. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the association of incidentally discovered WMD severity and CBI location with risk of subsequent symptomatic stroke. METHOD: This retrospective cohort study includes patients aged ≥50 years old in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system who received neuroimaging for a nonstroke indication between 2009 and 2019. Incidental CBI and WMD were identified via natural language processing of the neuroimage report, and WMD severity was classified into grades. RESULTS: A total of 261,960 patients received neuroimaging; 78,555 patients (30.0%) were identified to have incidental WMD and 12,857 patients (4.9%) to have incidental CBI. Increasing WMD severity is associated with an increased incidence rate of future stroke. However, the stroke incidence rate in CT-identified WMD is higher at each level of severity compared to rates in MRI-identified WMD. Patients with mild WMD via CT have a stroke incidence rate of 24.9 per 1,000 person-years, similar to that of patients with severe WMD via MRI. Among incidentally discovered CBI patients with a determined CBI location, 97.9% are subcortical rather than cortical infarcts. CBI confers a similar risk of future stroke, whether cortical or subcortical or whether MRI- or CT-detected. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing severity of incidental WMD is associated with an increased risk of future symptomatic stroke, dependent on the imaging modality. Subcortical and cortical CBI conferred similar risks.

Sluggish Cognitive Tempo (SCT), Comorbid Psychopathology, and Functional Impairment in College Students: The Clinical Utility of SCT Subfactors.

BACKGROUND: Sluggish cognitive tempo (SCT) has been proposed to be either its own distinct disorder or a transdiagnostic process. OBJECTIVE: To examine SCT within ADHD (and its specific presentations) and internalizing disorders and its relationship with functional impairment, particularly when considered from a multidimensional perspective. METHOD: Undergraduate students (N = 2,806) completed self-report scales measuring SCT, ADHD, anxiety, depression, and functional impairment. The SCT scale consisted of three subfactors identified in prior research. RESULTS: Students with internalizing disorders were equally as likely as those with ADHD to report clinically significant SCT, and having multiple other disorders predicted especially high levels of SCT symptoms. Only sleepy/sluggish symptoms incrementally predicted impairment. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide more support for SCT as a transdiagnostic process than as a distinct disorder. All areas of SCT symptoms are associated with ADHD, anxiety, and depression, but the sleepy/sluggish symptoms may be uniquely associated with problems in everyday living.

Association of Incidentally Discovered Covert Cerebrovascular Disease Identified Using Natural Language Processing and Future Dementia.

Background Covert cerebrovascular disease (CCD) has been shown to be associated with dementia in population-based studies with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening, but dementia risk associated with incidentally discovered CCD is not known. Methods and Results Individuals aged ≥50 years enrolled in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California health system receiving head computed tomography (CT) or MRI for nonstroke indications from 2009 to 2019, without prior ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack, dementia/Alzheimer disease, or visit reason/scan indication suggestive of cognitive decline or stroke were included. Natural language processing identified incidentally discovered covert brain infarction (id-CBI) and white matter disease (id-WMD) on the neuroimage report; white matter disease was characterized as mild, moderate, severe, or undetermined. We estimated risk of dementia associated with id-CBI and id-WMD. Among 241 050 qualified individuals, natural language processing identified 69 931 (29.0%) with id-WMD and 11 328 (4.7%) with id-CBI. Dementia incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) were 23.5 (95% CI, 22.9-24.0) for patients with id-WMD, 29.4 (95% CI, 27.9-31.0) with id-CBI, and 6.0 (95% CI, 5.8-6.2) without id-CCD. The association of id-WMD with future dementia was stronger in younger (aged <70 years) versus older (aged ≥70 years) patients and for CT- versus MRI-discovered lesions. For patients with versus without id-WMD on CT, the adjusted HR was 2.87 (95% CI, 2.58-3.19) for older and 1.87 (95% CI, 1.79-1.95) for younger patients. For patients with versus without id-WMD on MRI, the adjusted HR for dementia risk was 2.28 (95% CI, 1.99-2.62) for older and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.32-1.66) for younger patients. The adjusted HR for id-CBI was 2.02 (95% CI, 1.70-2.41) for older and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.15-1.30) for younger patients for either modality. Dementia risk was strongly correlated with id-WMD severity; adjusted HRs compared with patients who were negative for id-WMD by MRI ranged from 1.41 (95% CI, 1.25-1.60) for those with mild disease on MRI to 4.11 (95% CI, 3.58-4.72) for those with severe disease on CT. Conclusions Incidentally discovered CCD is common and associated with a high risk of dementia, representing an opportunity for prevention. The association is strengthened when discovered at younger age, by increasing id-WMD severity, and when id-WMD is detected by CT scan rather than MRI.

Prognostic models for COVID-19 needed updating to warrant transportability over time and space.

BACKGROUND: Supporting decisions for patients who present to the emergency department (ED) with COVID-19 requires accurate prognostication. We aimed to evaluate prognostic models for predicting outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, in different locations and across time. METHODS: We included patients who presented to the ED with suspected COVID-19 and were admitted to 12 hospitals in the New York City (NYC) area and 4 large Dutch hospitals. We used second-wave patients who presented between September and December 2020 (2137 and 3252 in NYC and the Netherlands, respectively) to evaluate models that were developed on first-wave patients who presented between March and August 2020 (12,163 and 5831). We evaluated two prognostic models for in-hospital death: The Northwell COVID-19 Survival (NOCOS) model was developed on NYC data and the COVID Outcome Prediction in the Emergency Department (COPE) model was developed on Dutch data. These models were validated on subsequent second-wave data at the same site (temporal validation) and at the other site (geographic validation). We assessed model performance by the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC), by the E-statistic, and by net benefit. RESULTS: Twenty-eight-day mortality was considerably higher in the NYC first-wave data (21.0%), compared to the second-wave (10.1%) and the Dutch data (first wave 10.8%; second wave 10.0%). COPE discriminated well at temporal validation (AUC 0.82), with excellent calibration (E-statistic 0.8%). At geographic validation, discrimination was satisfactory (AUC 0.78), but with moderate over-prediction of mortality risk, particularly in higher-risk patients (E-statistic 2.9%). While discrimination was adequate when NOCOS was tested on second-wave NYC data (AUC 0.77), NOCOS systematically overestimated the mortality risk (E-statistic 5.1%). Discrimination in the Dutch data was good (AUC 0.81), but with over-prediction of risk, particularly in lower-risk patients (E-statistic 4.0%). Recalibration of COPE and NOCOS led to limited net benefit improvement in Dutch data, but to substantial net benefit improvement in NYC data. CONCLUSIONS: NOCOS performed moderately worse than COPE, probably reflecting unique aspects of the early pandemic in NYC. Frequent updating of prognostic models is likely to be required for transportability over time and space during a dynamic pandemic.

Association of Atrial Septal Aneurysm and Shunt Size With Stroke Recurrence and Benefit From Patent Foramen Ovale Closure.

Importance: The Patent Foramen Ovale (PFO)-Associated Stroke Causal Likelihood classification system combines information regarding noncardiac patient features (vascular risk factors, infarct topography) and PFO features (shunt size and presence of atrial septal aneurysm [ASA]) to classify patients into 3 validated categories of responsiveness to treatment with PFO closure. However, the distinctive associations of shunt size and ASA, alone and in combination, have not been completely delineated. Objective: To evaluate the association of PFO closure with stroke recurrence according to shunt size and/or the presence of an ASA. Design, Setting, and Participants: Pooled individual patient data from 6 randomized clinical trials conducted from February 2000 to October 2017 that compared PFO closure with medical therapy. Patients in North America, Europe, Australia, Brazil, and South Korea with PFO-associated stroke were included. Analysis was completed in January 2022. Exposures: Transcatheter PFO closure plus antithrombotic therapy vs antithrombotic therapy alone, stratified into 4 groups based on the combination of 2 features: small vs large PFO shunt size and the presence or absence of an ASA. Main Outcomes and Measures: Recurrent ischemic stroke. Results: A total of 121 recurrent ischemic strokes occurred in the pooled 3740 patients (mean [SD] age, 45 [10] years; 1682 [45%] female) during a median (IQR) follow-up of 57 (23.7-63.8) months. Treatment with PFO closure was associated with reduced risk for recurrent ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.41 [95% CI, 0.28-0.60]; P < .001). The reduction in hazard for recurrent stroke was greater for patients with both a large shunt and an ASA (aHR, 0.15 [95% CI, 0.06-0.35]) than for large shunt without ASA (aHR, 0.27 [95% CI, 0.14-0.56]), small shunt with ASA (aHR, 0.36 [95% CI, 0.17-0.78]), and small shunt without ASA (aHR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.41-1.13]) (interaction P = .02). At 2 years, the absolute risk reduction of recurrent stroke was greater (5.5% [95% CI, 2.7-8.3]) in patients with large shunt and ASA than for patients in the other 3 categories (1.0% for all). Conclusions and Relevance: Patients with both a large shunt and an ASA showed a substantially greater beneficial association with PFO closure than patients with large shunt alone, patients with small shunt and ASA, and patients with neither large shunt nor ASA. These findings, combined with other patient features, may inform shared patient-clinician decision-making.

Development of Parkinson Disease and Its Relationship with Incidentally Discovered White Matter Disease and Covert Brain Infarction in a Real-World Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the relationship between covert cerebrovascular disease, comprised of covert brain infarction and white matter disease, discovered incidentally in routine care, and subsequent Parkinson disease. METHODS: Patients were ≥50 years and received neuroimaging for non-stroke indications in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California system from 2009 to 2019. Natural language processing identified incidentally discovered covert brain infarction and white matter disease and classified white matter disease severity. The Parkinson disease outcome was defined as 2 ICD diagnosis codes. RESULTS: 230,062 patients were included (median follow-up 3.72 years). A total of 1,941 Parkinson disease cases were identified (median time-to-event 2.35 years). Natural language processing identified covert cerebrovascular disease in 70,592 (30.7%) patients, 10,622 (4.6%) with covert brain infarction and 65,814 (28.6%) with white matter disease. After adjustment for known risk factors, white matter disease was associated with Parkinson disease (hazard ratio 1.67 [95%CI, 1.44, 1.93] for patients <70 years and 1.33 [1.18, 1.50] for those ≥70 years). Greater severity of white matter disease was associated with increased incidence of Parkinson disease(/1,000 person-years), from 1.52 (1.43, 1.61) in patients without white matter disease to 4.90 (3.86, 6.13) in those with severe disease. Findings were robust when more specific definitions of Parkinson disease were used. Covert brain infarction was not associated with Parkinson disease (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.05 [0.88, 1.24]). INTERPRETATION: Incidentally discovered white matter disease was associated with subsequent Parkinson disease, an association strengthened with younger age and increased white matter disease severity. Incidentally discovered covert brain infarction did not appear to be associated with subsequent Parkinson disease. ANN NEUROL 2022;92:620-630.

The effect of vitamin D supplementation on cardiovascular risk in patients with prediabetes: A secondary analysis of the D2d study.

AIMS: Low blood 25(OH)D level is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Additionally, individuals with prediabetes are at higher risk for CVD than individuals with normoglycemia. We investigated the effects of vitamin D supplementation on CVD outcomes in the vitamin D and type 2 diabetes (D2d) study, a large trial among adults with prediabetes. METHODS: 2423 participants were randomized to 4000 IU/day of vitamin D3 or placebo and followed for median 3.0 years for new-onset diabetes. In pre-specified secondary analyses, we examined the effect of vitamin D supplementation on composite Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE); expanded MACE (MACE + revascularization); atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk score; and individual CVD risk factors (blood pressure, lipids, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein). Cox models compared hazard ratios (HR) between the two groups on MACE and expanded MACE. RESULTS: Mean age was 60 years, 45 % were women, 13 % had history of CVD. Twenty-one participants assigned to vitamin D and 12 participants assigned to placebo met the MACE outcome (HR 1.81, 95%CI 0.89 to 3.69). There were 27 expanded MACE outcomes in each group (HR 1.02, 95%CI, 0.59 to 1.76). There were no significant differences between vitamin D and placebo in individual CVD risk factors, but change in ASCVD risk score favored the vitamin D group (-0.45 %, 95%CI -0.75 to -0.15). CONCLUSIONS: In people with prediabetes not selected for vitamin D insufficiency and with intermediate CVD risk, vitamin D supplementation did not decrease MACE but had a small favorable effect on ASCVD risk score. TRIAL REGISTRATION: D2d ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01942694, prospectively registered September 16, 2013.