Visualization-supported dialogues in the Baltic Sea Region.

This study explores visualization-supported dialogues with water management and ecosystem stakeholders from four catchments in Sweden, Latvia, Germany and Poland. An interactive visualization tool was designed to present information regarding modelled effects of chosen future pathways including different measures that address ecosystem issues under present and future scenarios of land use and climate change, and estimated benefits and costs of the measures. This paper assesses if and how visualization-supported dialogues hinder or support key components of good governance of water and ecosystem management among expert stakeholders. We discuss challenges and opportunities related to the tool and dialogue design, and performance of dialogues. Results from a cross-case workshop indicate that the form and functionality of the tool contributes to participation, empowerment, accessibility and flexibility, while dialogue design is instrumental for encouraging trust and inclusion of local knowledge and competence.

Developing transformative capacity through systematic assessments and visualization of urban climate transitions.

Transforming cities into low-carbon, resilient, and sustainable places will require action encompassing most segments of society. However, local governments struggle to overview and assess all ongoing climate activities in a city, constraining well-informed decision-making and transformative capacity. This paper proposes and tests an assessment framework developed to visualize the implementation of urban climate transition (UCT). Integrating key transition activities and process progression, the framework was applied to three Swedish cities. Climate coordinators and municipal councillors evaluated the visual UCT representations. Results indicate that their understanding of UCT actions and implementation bottlenecks became clearer, making transition more governable. To facilitate UCT, involving external actors and shifting priorities between areas were found to be key. The visual UCT representations improved system awareness and memory, building local transformative capacity. The study recommends systematic assessment and visualization of process progression as a promising method to facilitate UCT governance, but potentially also broader sustainability transitions.

VisAdapt: A Visualization Tool to Support Climate Change Adaptation.

The web-based visualization VisAdapt tool was developed to help laypeople in the Nordic countries assess how anticipated climate change will impact their homes. The tool guides users through a three-step visual process that helps them explore risks and identify adaptive actions specifically modified to their location and house type. This article walks through the tool's multistep, user-centered design process. Although VisAdapt's target end users are Nordic homeowners, the insights gained from the development process and the lessons learned from the project are applicable to a wide range of domains.

Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security.

The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in crop and livestock systems.

Assessment of composite index methods for agricultural vulnerability to climate change.

A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods.

Stewardship to tackle global phosphorus inefficiency: The case of Europe.

The inefficient use of phosphorus (P) in the food chain is a threat to the global aquatic environment and the health and well-being of citizens, and it is depleting an essential finite natural resource critical for future food security and ecosystem function. We outline a strategic framework of 5R stewardship (Re-align P inputs, Reduce P losses, Recycle P in bioresources, Recover P in wastes, and Redefine P in food systems) to help identify and deliver a range of integrated, cost-effective, and feasible technological innovations to improve P use efficiency in society and reduce Europe's dependence on P imports. Their combined adoption facilitated by interactive policies, co-operation between upstream and downstream stakeholders (researchers, investors, producers, distributors, and consumers), and more harmonized approaches to P accounting would maximize the resource and environmental benefits and help deliver a more competitive, circular, and sustainable European economy. The case of Europe provides a blueprint for global P stewardship.

Ensemble modeling of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management.

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

The phosphorus mass balance: identifying 'hotspots' in the food system as a roadmap to phosphorus security.

Phosphorus is a critical element on which all life depends. Global crop production depends on fertilisers derived from phosphate rock to maintain high crop yields. Population increase, changing dietary preferences towards more meat and dairy products, and the continuing intensification of global agriculture supporting this expansion will place increasing pressure on an uncertain, but finite supply of high-quality phosphate rock. Growing concern about phosphorus scarcity and security, coupled with the environmental impact of phosphorus pollution, has encouraged an increase in research exploring how phosphorus is used and lost in the food system-from mine to field to fork. An assessment of recent phosphorus flows analyses at different geographical scales identifies the key phosphorus 'hotspots', for example within the mining, agriculture or food processing sectors, where efficiency and reuse can be substantially improved through biotechnological approaches coupled with policy changes.

Global phosphorus scarcity: identifying synergies for a sustainable future.

Global food production is dependent on constant inputs of phosphorus. In the current system this phosphorus is not predominantly derived from organic recycled waste, but to a large degree from phosphate-rock based mineral fertilisers. However, phosphate rock is a finite resource that cannot be manufactured. Our dependency therefore needs to be addressed from a sustainability perspective in order to ensure global food supplies for a growing global population. The situation is made more urgent by predictions that, for example, the consumption of resource intensive foods and the demand for biomass energy will increase. The scientific and societal debate has so far been focussed on the exact timing of peak phosphorus and on when the total depletion of the global reserves will occur. Even though the timing of these events is important, all dimensions of phosphorus scarcity need to be addressed in a manner which acknowledges linkages to other sustainable development challenges and which takes into consideration the synergies between different sustainability measures. Many sustainable phosphorus measures have positive impacts on other challenges; for example, shifting global diets to more plant-based foods would not only reduce global phosphorus consumption, but also reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce nitrogen fertiliser demand and reduce water consumption.

Understanding consumption-related sucralose emissions - A conceptual approach combining substance-flow analysis with sampling analysis.

This paper explores the potential of combining substance-flow modelling with water and wastewater sampling to trace consumption-related substances emitted through the urban wastewater. The method is exemplified on sucralose. Sucralose is a chemical sweetener that is 600 times sweeter than sucrose and has been on the European market since 2004. As a food additive, sucralose has recently increased in usage in a number of foods, such as soft drinks, dairy products, candy and several dietary products. In a field campaign, sucralose concentrations were measured in the inflow and outflow of the local wastewater treatment plant in Linköping, Sweden, as well as upstream and downstream of the receiving stream and in Lake Roxen. This allows the loads emitted from the city to be estimated. A method consisting of solid-phase extraction followed by liquid chromatography and high resolution mass spectrometry was used to quantify the sucralose in the collected surface and wastewater samples. To identify and quantify the sucralose sources, a consumption analysis of households including small business enterprises was conducted as well as an estimation of the emissions from the local food industry. The application of a simple model including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis indicates that at present not one large source but rather several small sources contribute to the load coming from households, small business enterprises and industry. This is in contrast to the consumption pattern seen two years earlier, which was dominated by one product. The inflow to the wastewater treatment plant decreased significantly from other measurements made two years earlier. The study shows that the combination of substance-flow modelling with the analysis of the loads to the receiving waters helps us to understand consumption-related emissions.

The flow of phosphorus in food production and consumption -- Linköping, Sweden, 1870-2000.

Phosphorus is an important substance for agricultural production of food. Being a limited resource, it is of great interest for regional, as well as global food security. At the same time it presents a pollution problem for the aquatic environment in Sweden since it contributes to eutrophication of surface waters and the Baltic Sea. This study analyses the flow of phosphorus based on consumption and production of food for an average inhabitant of a Swedish city, Linköping, from 1870 until 2000. The study shows the changes in flows within the system of production and consumption of food, as well as between the different processes in this system, such as agriculture, food processing, consumption and waste handling, and output flows to the environment. The main changes in this system over time are a) the increasing flow of phosphorus reaching the consumer and hence the waste handling system, b) the increase in the flow of products from animal production, which mainly causes the increase in (a), and most notably c) the increased input of chemical fertilizer.