Survival after antireflux surgery versus medication in patients with reflux oesophagitis or Barrett's oesophagus: multinational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The aim was to examine the hypothesis that antireflux surgery with fundoplication improves long-term survival compared with antireflux medication in patients with reflux oesophagitis or Barrett's oesophagus. METHOD: Individuals aged between 18 and 70 years with reflux oesophagitis or Barrett's oesophagus (intestinal metaplasia) documented from in-hospital and specialized outpatient care were selected from national patient registries in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, and Sweden from 1980 to 2014. The study investigated all-cause mortality and disease-specific mortality, comparing patients who had undergone open or laparoscopic antireflux surgery with fundoplication versus those using antireflux medication. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 per cent confidence intervals for all-cause mortality and disease-specific mortality, adjusted for sex, age, calendar period, country, and co-morbidity. RESULTS: Some 240 226 patients with reflux oesophagitis or Barrett's oesophagus were included, of whom 33 904 (14.1 per cent) underwent antireflux surgery. The risk of all-cause mortality was lower after antireflux surgery than with use of medication (HR 0.61, 95 per cent c.i. 0.58 to 0.63), and lower after laparoscopic (HR 0.56, 0.52 to 0.60) than open (HR 0.80, 0.70 to 0.91) surgery. After antireflux surgery, mortality was decreased from cardiovascular disease (HR 0.58, 0.55 to 0.61), respiratory disease (HR 0.62, 0.57 to 0.66), laryngeal or pharyngeal cancer (HR 0.35, 0.19 to 0.65), and lung cancer (HR 0.67, 0.58 to 0.80), but not from oesophageal cancer (HR 1.05, 0.87 to 1.28), compared with medication, The decreased mortality rates generally remained over time. CONCLUSION: In patients with reflux oesophagitis or Barrett's oesophagus, antireflux surgery is associated with lower mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, laryngeal or pharyngeal cancer, and lung cancer, but not from oesophageal cancer, compared with antireflux medication.

Reintervention or mortality within 90 days of bariatric surgery: population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery carries a risk of severe postoperative complications, sometimes leading to reinterventions or even death. The incidence and risk factors for reintervention and death within 90 days after bariatric surgery are unclear, and were examined in this study. METHODS: This population-based cohort study included all patients who underwent bariatric surgery in one of the five Nordic countries between 1980 and 2012. Data on surgical and endoscopic procedures, diagnoses and mortality were retrieved from national high-quality and complete registries. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted for country, age, sex, co-morbidity, type of surgery and approach, year and hospital volume of bariatric surgery. RESULTS: Of 49 977 patients, 1111 (2·2 per cent) had a reintervention and 95 (0·2 per cent) died within 90 days of bariatric surgery. Risk factors for the composite outcome reintervention/mortality were older age (HR 1·65, 95 per cent c.i. 1·36 to 2·01, for age at least 50 years versus less than 30 years) and co-morbidity (HR 2·66, 1·53 to 4·62, for Charlson co-morbidity index score 2 or more versus 0). The risk of reintervention/mortality was decreased for vertical banded gastroplasty compared with gastric bypass (HR 0·37, 0·28 to 0·48) and more recent surgery (HR 0·51, 0·39 to 0·67, for procedures undertaken in 2010 or later versus before 2000). Sex, surgical approach (laparoscopic versus open) and hospital volume did not influence risk of reintervention/mortality, but laparoscopic surgery was associated with a lower risk of 90-day mortality (HR 0·29, 0·16 to 0·53). CONCLUSION: Reintervention and death were uncommon events within 90 days of bariatric surgery even in this unselected nationwide cohort from five countries. Older patients with co-morbidities have an increased relative risk of these outcomes.

ANTECEDENTES: La cirugía bariátrica conlleva un riesgo de complicaciones postoperatorias graves, que algunas veces ocasionan reintervenciones o incluso son causa de mortalidad. La incidencia y los factores de riesgo de reinterveniones y mortalidad a los 90 días tras cirugía bariátrica no están claros, y fueron examinados en este estudio. MÉTODOS: Todos los pacientes que fueron sometidos a cirugía bariátrica en uno de los cinco países nórdicos en 1980-2012 fueron incluidos en un estudio de cohortes de base poblacional. Los datos de los procedimientos quirúrgicos y endoscópicos, diagnóstico, y mortalidad se obtuvieron a partir de registros nacionales completos y de alta calidad. Mediante una regresión de Cox multivariable se obtuvieron los cocientes de riesgos instantáneos (hazard ratios, HR) y los intervalos de confianza 95% (i.c. del 95%) ajustados por país, edad, sexo, comorbilidad, y tipo, abordaje, año y volumen de casos de cirugía bariátrica del hospital. RESULTADOS: De un total de 49.977 pacientes, 1.111 (2,2%) precisaron una reintervención y 95 (0,2%) fallecieron durante los primeros 90 días tras la cirugía bariátrica. Los factores de riesgo para el resultado compuesto reintervención/mortalidad fueron la edad avanzada (HR = 1,7 (i.c. del 95% 1,4-2,0) edad ≥ 50 versus < 30 años)) y la comorbilidad (HR = 2,7 (i.c. del 95% 1,5-4,6) puntuación del índice de comorbilidad de Charlson ≥ 2 versus 0)). Se observó una disminución de los HRs tras la gastroplastia vertical con banda en comparación con el bypass gástrico (HR = 0,4, (i.c. del 95% 0,3-0,5)) y el periodo de estudio más reciente (HR = 0,5 (i.c. del 95% 0,4-0,7) ≥ 2010 versus < 2000)). El sexo, el abordaje quirúrgico laparoscópico versus abierto y el volumen del hospital no influyeron sobre el riesgo de reintervención/mortalidad, pero la cirugía laparoscópica se asoció con una mortalidad a los 90 días más baja (HR 0,3, i.c. del 95% 0,2-0,5). CONCLUSIÓN: La reintervención y la mortalidad son eventos infrecuentes durante los primeros 90 días tras la cirugía bariátrica, incluso en esta cohorte nacional y no seleccionada de cinco paises. Los pacientes mayores con comorbilidades tienen un riesgo relativo aumentado de reintervención y mortalidad.

Timing of HPV16-E6 antibody seroconversion before OPSCC: findings from the HPVC3 consortium.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16)-E6 antibodies are detectable in peripheral blood before diagnosis in the majority of HPV16-driven oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), but the timing of seroconversion is unknown. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We formed the HPV Cancer Cohort Consortium which comprises nine population cohorts from Europe, North America and Australia. In total, 743 incident OPSCC cases and 5814 controls provided at least one pre-diagnostic blood sample, including 111 cases with multiple samples. Median time between first blood collection and OPSCC diagnosis was 11.4 years (IQR = 6-11 years, range = 0-40 years). Antibodies against HPV16-E6 were measured by multiplex serology (GST fusion protein based Luminex assay). RESULTS: HPV16-E6 seropositivity was present in 0.4% of controls (22/5814; 95% CI 0.2% to 0.6%) and 26.2% (195/743; 95% CI 23.1% to 29.6%) of OPSCC cases. HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased the odds of OPSCC 98.2-fold (95% CI 62.1-155.4) in whites and 17.2-fold (95% CI 1.7-170.5) in blacks. Seropositivity in cases was more frequent in recent calendar periods, ranging from 21.9% pre-1996 to 68.4% in 2005 onwards, in those with blood collection near diagnosis (lead time <5 years). HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased with lead time: 0.0%, 13.5%, 23.7%, and 38.9% with lead times of >30 years (N = 24), 20-30 years (N = 148), 10-20 years (N = 228), and <10 years (N = 301 cases) (p-trend < 0.001). Of the 47 HPV16-E6 seropositive cases with serially-collected blood samples, 17 cases seroconverted during follow-up, with timing ranging from 6 to 28 years before diagnosis. For the remaining 30 cases, robust seropositivity was observed up to 25 years before diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The immune response to HPV16-driven tumorigenesis is most often detectable several decades before OPSCC diagnosis. HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals face increased risk of OPSCC over several decades.

Risk factors for requiring cholecystectomy for gallstone disease in a prospective population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between different lifestyle factors and the risk of needing cholecystectomy for gallstone disease is not clear. This study aimed to assess the association between anthropometric, lifestyle and sociodemographic risk factors and the subsequent risk of requiring cholecystectomy for gallstone disease during long-term follow-up in a defined population cohort. METHODS: Data from a large population-based cohort study performed from 1995 to 1997 were used (the second Norwegian Nord-Trøndelag health study, HUNT2). Following HUNT2, from 1998 to 2011, all patients operated on for gallstone disease with cholecystectomy at the two hospitals in the county, Levanger Hospital and Namsos Hospital, were identified. A Cox proportional hazards model was used for multivariable risk analysis. RESULTS: The HUNT2 cohort included 65 237 individuals (69·5 per cent response rate), aged 20-99 years. During a median follow-up of 15·3 (range 0·6-16·4) years, 1162 cholecystectomies were performed. In multivariable analysis, overweight individuals (body mass index (BMI) 25·0-29·9 kg/m(2) ) had a 58 per cent increased risk of cholecystectomy compared with individuals with normal weight (BMI less than 25·0 kg/m(2) ). Obese individuals (BMI 30 kg/m(2) or above) had a twofold increased risk. Increasing waist circumference independently increased the risk of cholecystectomy. In women, current hormone replacement therapy (HRT) increased the risk, whereas hard physical activity and higher educational level were associated with reduced risk of cholecystectomy. CONCLUSION: High BMI and waist circumference increased the risk of having cholecystectomy for both sexes. In women, the risk was increased by HRT, and decreased by hard physical activity and higher educational level.