Forecasting the need for palliative and hospice care using the creeping trend method with segment smoothing.

OBJECTIVE: Aim: To determine the limits of refinement of the forecast of the need for palliative and hospice care (PHC) among adults and children, made by the methods of linear, logarithmic and exponential trends, using the improved forecasting method. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and Methods: Based on the calculated demand for 2018-2020, a demand forecast was made using the linear trend method for 2021 and 2022, which was verified by comparing it with the calculation based on available statistical data for 2022. To improve the forecasting result, the creeping trend method with a smoothing segment was used. RESULTS: Results: The estimated need for PHC by the linear trend method for 2022 was 87,254 adults and 46,122 children. The predicted need for this year by the linear trend method was 172,303 for adults and 45,517 for children. The prediction using the sliding trend method with segment smoothing was found to be 4.7 times more accurate and reliable for adults and all age groups combined, but was less accurate and not reliable for children. It was found out that in order to achieve a reliable forecast, it is necessary to clarify the data of medical statistics regarding of malignant neoplasms and congenital malformations, as well as demographic statistics. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: The method of a creeping trend gave more accurate results and made it possible to determine the reliability of the forecast, allowed to take into account the simultaneous influence of various input parameters.

HYGIENIC ASPECTS OF LIFESTYLE OF KHARKIV NATIONAL MEDICAL UNIVERSITY JUNIOR STUDENTS IN THE CONDITIONS OF QUARANTINE.

OBJECTIVE: The aim: To assess the impact of adverse factors on the lifestyle and health status of students in conditions of prolonged isolation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and methods: Data collection was carried out by anonymous survey using the survio.com online survey service. The study involved 273 students of Kharkiv National Medical University: 47 men (17,2%) and 226 women (82,8%) aged 17 to 20. Age of 85% of respondents is 18-20 years old. 38 (13,9%) students are from 21 to 25 years old and 3 students (1,1%) - over 25 years old. RESULTS: Results: A comparative analysis revealed the characteristic changes in the students' lifestyle. If under normal conditions the majority of students (63.7%) use their free time for walks outdoors, and 46.5% spend it at the computer, then during quarantine most respondents spend leisure time in front of a computer monitor (64.8%) or watching TV (71.4%). These indices were the result of a direct restriction on the interaction of students with the environment and the prohibition of their stay outside the zone of residence. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: The most common negative changes of the students' health were sleep disturbances and headaches.The second most common symptoms are changes in the musculoskeletal system, associated mainly with physical inactivity. The third ones are deterioration of vision and psycho-emotional state of students.