An application of a probabilistic fertility model to estimate some female family life cycle stages in Paraguay.

PIP: Women's life cycle involves reproduction, labor force, and inactivity. In developing countries with inadequate data, mathematical models can be used to analyze economic behavior of individuals and families in different stages of the life cycle. This study described a model and empirically tested the model on data from Paraguay. The model provided estimates of the mean age of women at first birth, the mean age of women at last birth, time spent in reproduction, and mean life after the birth of the last child for 1950-55, 1980-85, and projection to 2020-25. Values were generated from age-specific mortality and fertility rates. Simulations were performed with varying mortality and fertility schedules. The method was based on techniques developed by Krishnamoorty, who based his methods on models proposed by Hoem and Goodman, Keyfitz, and Pullum. The method was based on an assumption of a stable population with a fixed age pattern of mortality and fertility. An assumption was also that more and less fertile women had the same mortality risks, and fertility and mortality at any one age was applicable to all ages. The total and net fertility rates and life expectancy followed a linear pattern. Application of the method showed that the net fertility rate declined by 27% from 6.15 during 1950-55 to 4.49 during 1980-85, but the time spent in reproduction declined only by 15%, from 15.7 years to 15.9 years. The cause of fertility decline was not a shortened reproductive period, but birth spacing. Projections to 2020-25 showed a decline in the reproductive period of 7 years and a net fertility rate of 3.0 children per woman. When a simulation of one of the 8 UN models of fertility age structure was used to project future fertility, the results showed the reproductive period declined from 11.8 years to 9.7 years. When fertility was assumed to be 2.3, which was considerably lower than 4.49 during 1980-85, the results showed replacement level fertility during 2020-25 and an early age peak in fertility over a short reproductive period of 8 years. The simulation may represent future urban fertility patterns in Paraguay, which would affect labor force participation, which presently is low and stable at 20-23%.^ieng

[Brazilian colonization in the Paraguayan agricultural frontier]. / La colonizacion Brasilena en la frontera agricola del Paraguay.

PIP: This work briefly describes Brazilian colonization of the Paraguayan agricultural frontier, analyzes factors responsible for expelling population from Brazil and for attracting Brazilians to Paraguay, and assesses the economic and social consequences of immigration to the area. Paraguay's vast and sparsely populated agricultural frontier in areas outside the Central subregion underwent a process of intense colonization from the early 1960s to the mid-1980s. The Paraguayan government initiated an ambitious colonization program in 1963 to increase production, relieve population pressure and subdivision of small parcels in the Central subregion, encourage agricultural modernization, and produce a more diversified agriculture. Paraguayan agriculture in the early 1960s suffered from excessive concentration of land in a few hands and resulting exclusion of around 3/4 of workers from ownership and from any possibility of obtaining credit to fund technological improvements. Results of studies 2 decades after implementation of the colonization plan suggest that it has failed in significant areas. Although a considerable population redistribution alleviated pressure in the Central subregion, it apparently resulted more from spontaneous movement of peasants outside the colonization areas than from the official program. Concentration of lands is now occurring in the colonization area. Assistance for agricultural modernization and diversification of production in the peasant sector has been minimal. On the other hand, production of soy, wheat, and cotton for export increased substantially, because of an entrepreneurial agriculture capitalized by foreign as well as national interests The unmet goals of the colonization program would have required structural reforms rather than simple spatial redistribution of the population. Many of the colonists in the 1970s were Brazilian families displaced by mechanized agriculture in the southern states of Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Many were relatively small producers who were attracted to the Alto Parana region of Paraguay near the Brazilian border by its geographic proximity, extensive availability of land at low prices, and favorable credit and tax policies. Many small proprietors from Brazil were able to buy extensive tracts in Paraguay and to develop an economy based on cultivation of export crops on small and medium sized holdings. A serious and efficient plan for financial aid, together with technical assistance and intensive training programs, could have placed Paraguayan cultivators in a position similar to that of the Brazilians. Paraguayan colonists in the frontier areas could then have progressed rapidly beyond their current state of subsistence or semisubsistence agriculture to the kind of entrepreneurial agriculture practiced by the Brazilians.^ieng

[An application of the Gompertz function to the analysis and projection of households by size class]. / Uma aplicacao da funcao de Gompertz na analise e na projecao de domicilios por classes de tamanho.

A technique for representing the distribution of households by size class using the Gompertz function is introduced. "By extension, it may also be used to disaggregate, by size class, an available projection of the total number of households. The technique does not consider directly the dynamic aspects of the family life cycle, however, it has a methodological advantage: it makes use of information usually available in most census publications." The technique is illustrated using international data and data from the Brazilian censuses of 1960, 1970, and 1980. "Finally, the function is used to disaggregate, by size class, a recent projection of households for Brazil. The analyses show that, in fact, the Gompertz function is a consistent model to disaggregate the total number of households by size class. The methods may be useful as a base to develop models to estimate future housing needs according to the size of the dwellings." (SUMMARY IN ENG)