Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole features an anomalously high west-minus-east sea surface temperature gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean, affecting global extreme weathers. Whether the associated impact spills over to global economies is unknown. Here, we develop a nonlinear and country-heterogenous econometric model, and find that a typical positive event causes a global economic loss that increases for further two years after an initial shock, inducing a global loss of hundreds of billion US dollars, disproportionally greater to the developing and emerging economies. The loss from the 2019 positive event amounted to US$558B, or 0.67% in global economic growth. Benefit from a negative dipole event is far smaller. Under a high-emission scenario, a projected intensification in Dipole amplitude causes a median additional loss of US$5.6 T at a 3% discount rate, but likely as large as US$24.5 T. The additional loss decreases by 64% under the target of the Paris Agreement.

Patterns of crop cover under future climates.

We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.5 and 8.5 by four global circulation models/earth system models from 2000 to 2100. We use Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, to project the future crop cover. Our results show that, at the global scale, increases and decreases in crop cover cancel each other out. Crop cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to be impacted more by future climate than the in Southern Hemisphere because of the disparity in the warming rate and precipitation patterns between the two Hemispheres. We found that crop cover in temperate regions is projected to decrease more than in tropical regions. We identified regions of concern and opportunities for climate change adaptation and investment.

Australia is 'free to choose' economic growth and falling environmental pressures.

Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views divide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds; others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals; while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth's ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy-water-food nexus, rural land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.

Understanding Human Mobility from Twitter.

Understanding human mobility is crucial for a broad range of applications from disease prediction to communication networks. Most efforts on studying human mobility have so far used private and low resolution data, such as call data records. Here, we propose Twitter as a proxy for human mobility, as it relies on publicly available data and provides high resolution positioning when users opt to geotag their tweets with their current location. We analyse a Twitter dataset with more than six million geotagged tweets posted in Australia, and we demonstrate that Twitter can be a reliable source for studying human mobility patterns. Our analysis shows that geotagged tweets can capture rich features of human mobility, such as the diversity of movement orbits among individuals and of movements within and between cities. We also find that short- and long-distance movers both spend most of their time in large metropolitan areas, in contrast with intermediate-distance movers' movements, reflecting the impact of different modes of travel. Our study provides solid evidence that Twitter can indeed be a useful proxy for tracking and predicting human movement.

Oil, Gas and Conflict: A Mathematical Model for the Resource Curse.

Oil and natural gas are highly valuable natural resources, but many countries with large untapped reserves suffer from poor economic and social-welfare performance. This conundrum is known as the resource curse. The resource curse is a result of poor governance and wealth distribution structures that allow the elite to monopolize resources for self-gain. When rival social groups compete for natural resources, civil unrest soon follows. While conceptually easy to follow, there have been few formal attempts to study this phenomenon. Thus, we develop a mathematical model that captures the basic elements and dynamics of this dilemma. We show that when resources are monopolized by the elite, increased exportation leads to decreased domestic production. This is due to under-provision of the resource-embedded energy and industrial infrastructure. Decreased domestic production then lowers the marginal return on productive activities, and insurgency emerges. The resultant conflict further displaces human, built, and natural capital. It forces the economy into a vicious downward spiral. Our numerical results highlight the importance of governance reform and productivity growth in reducing oil-and-gas-related conflicts, and thus identify potential points of intervention to break the downward spiral.

Asynchronous spatial evolutionary games.

Over the past 50 years, much attention has been given to the Prisoner's Dilemma as a metaphor for problems surrounding the evolution and maintenance of cooperative and altruistic behavior. The bulk of this work has dealt with the successfulness and robustness of various strategies. Nowak and May (1992) considered an alternative approach to studying evolutionary games. They assumed that players were distributed across a two-dimensional (2D) lattice, interactions between players occurred locally, rather than at long range as in the well mixed situation. The resulting spatial evolutionary games display dynamics not seen in their well-mixed counterparts. An assumption underlying much of the work on spatial evolutionary games is that the state of all players is updated in unison or in synchrony. Using the framework outlined in Nowak and May (1992), we examine the effect of various asynchronous updating schemes on the dynamics of spatial evolutionary games. There are potential implications for the dynamics of a wide variety of spatially extended systems in biology, physics and chemistry.

The role of translocation and selection in the emergence of genetic clusters and modules.

Biomolecular studies point increasingly to the importance of modularity in the organization of the genome. Processes such as the maintenance of metabolism are controlled by suites of genes that act as distinct, self-contained units, or modules. One effect is to promote stability of inherited characters. Despite the obvious importance of genetic modules, the mechanisms by which they form and persist are not understood. One clue is that functionally related genes tend to cluster together. Here we show that genetic translocation, recombination, and natural selection play a central role in this process. We distill the question of emerging genetic modularity into three simulation experiments that show: (1) a tendency, under natural selection, for essential genes to co-locate on the same chromosome and to settle in fixed loci; (2) that genes associated with a particular function tend to form functional clusters; and (3) that genes within a functional cluster tend to become arranged in transcription order. The results also imply that high proportions of junk DNA are essential to the process.