Machine Learning and Bayesian Network Analyses Identifies Psychiatric Disorders and Symptom Associations with Insomnia in a national sample of 31,285 Treatment-Seeking College Students.

Background: A better understanding of the structure of relations among insomnia and anxiety, mood, eating, and alcohol-use disorders is needed, given its prevalence among young adults. Supervised machine learning provides the ability to evaluate the discriminative accuracy of psychiatric disorders associated with insomnia. Combined with Bayesian network analysis, the directionality between symptoms and their associations may be illuminated. Methods: The current exploratory analyses utilized a national sample of college students across 26 U.S. colleges and universities collected during population-level screening before entering a randomized controlled trial. Firstly, an elastic net regularization model was trained to predict, via repeated 10-fold cross-validation, which psychiatric disorders were associated with insomnia severity. Seven disorders were included: major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, social anxiety disorder, panic disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, anorexia nervosa, and alcohol use disorder. Secondly, using a Bayesian network approach, completed partially directed acyclic graphs (CPDAG) built on training and holdout samples were computed via a Bayesian hill-climbing algorithm to determine symptom-level interactions of disorders most associated with insomnia [based on SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values)] and were evaluated for stability across networks. Results: Of 31,285 participants, 20,597 were women (65.8%); mean (standard deviation) age was 22.96 (4.52) years. The elastic net model demonstrated clinical significance in predicting insomnia severity in the training sample [R2 = .449 (.016); RMSE = 5.00 [.081]), with comparable performance in accounting for variance explained in the holdout sample [R2 = .33; RMSE = 5.47). SHAP indicated the presence of any psychiatric disorder was associated with higher insomnia severity, with major depressive disorder demonstrated to be the most associated disorder. CPDAGs showed excellent fit in the holdout sample and suggested that depressed mood, fatigue, and self-esteem were the most important depression symptoms that presupposed insomnia. Conclusion: These findings offer insights into associations between psychiatric disorders and insomnia among college students and encourage future investigation into the potential direction of causality between insomnia and major depressive disorder. Trial registration: Trial may be found on the National Institute of Health RePORTER website: Project Number: R01MH115128-05.

Positive reappraisal coping mediates the relationship between parental abuse and lack of affection on adulthood generalized anxiety severity.

Exposure to parental abuse and lack of parental affection during childhood are risk factors for adulthood psychopathology. Tendency to engage in positive reappraisal may be a plausible mechanism underlying this relationship. The current study examined if positive reappraisal coping mediated the relationship between maternal/paternal abuse/affection and adulthood generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) symptoms. Participant data (N = 3294) from the Midlife Development in the United States study was collected in three waves, spaced nine years apart. Longitudinal structural equation mediation modeling examined whether positive reappraisal coping at Time 2 mediated the relationship between maternal/paternal abuse/affection at Time 1 and GAD symptoms at Time 3, controlling for GAD symptoms at Time 1. Positive reappraisal coping mediated maternal/paternal childhood abuse - GAD symptom severity and maternal/paternal childhood affection - GAD severity relations. Maternal and paternal abuse was associated with lower positive reappraisal tendencies, predicting increased GAD symptom severity. Conversely, higher maternal/paternal affection was associated with increased positive reappraisal, predicting lower GAD severity. Incremental prediction revealed that childhood abuse to GAD severity via positive reappraisal path was significant for maternal but not paternal abuse, whereas affection from both parents remained significant. Positive reappraisal coping may be a possible mechanism linking childhood experiences to adulthood GAD severity.