Auto-Regression Model-Based Off-Line PID Controller Tuning: An Adaptive Strategy for DC Motor Control.

Brushed (B) and Brushless (BL) DC motors constitute the cornerstone of mechatronic systems regardless their sizes (including miniaturized), in which both position and speed control tasks require the application of sophisticated algorithms. This manuscript addresses the initial step using time series analysis to forecast Back EMF values, thereby enabling the elaboration of real-time adaptive fine-tuning strategies for PID controllers in such a control system design problem. An Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is developed to estimate the DC motor parameter, which evolves in time due to the system's imperfection (i.e., unpredictable duty cycle) and influences the closed-loop performance. The methodology is executed offline; thus, it highlights the applicability of collected BDC motor measurements in time series analysis. The proposed method updates the PID controller gains based on the Simulink ™ controller tuning toolbox. The contribution of this approach is shown in a comparative study that indicates an opportunity to use time series analysis to forecast DC motor parameters, to re-tune PID controller gains, and to obtain similar performance under the same perturbation conditions. The research demonstrates the practical applicability of the proposed method for fine-tuning/re-tuning controllers in real-time. The results show the inclusion of the time series analysis to recalculate controller gains as an alternative for adaptive control.

Application of probabilistic models for extreme values to the COVID-2019 epidemic daily dataset.

Worldwide, COVID-19 coronavirus disease is spreading rapidly in a second and third wave of infections. In this context of increasing infections, it is critical to know the probability of a specific number of cases being reported. We collated data on new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 breakouts in: Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Spain, U.K., and the United States, from the 20th of January, 2020 to 28th of August 2021. A selected sample of almost ten thousand data is used to validate the proposed models. Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution Type 1-Gumbel and Exponential (1, 2 parameters) models were introduced to analyze the probability of new daily confirmed cases. The data presented in this document for each country provide the daily probability of rate incidence. In addition, the frequencies of historical events expressed as a return period in days of the complete data set is provided.