ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: MELD score and MELD score derivates are used to objectify and grade the risk of liver-related death in patients with liver cirrhosis. We recently proposed a new predictive model that combines serum creatinine levels and maximum liver function capacity (LiMAx®), namely the CreLiMAx risk score. In this validation study we have aimed to reproduce its diagnostic accuracy in patients with end-stage liver disease. METHODS: Liver function of 113 patients with liver cirrhosis was prospectively investigated. Primary end-point of the study was liver-related death within 12 months of follow-up. RESULTS: Alcoholic liver disease was the main cause of liver disease (n = 51; 45%). Within 12 months of follow-up 11 patients (9.7%) underwent liver transplantation and 17 (15.1%) died (13 deaths were related to liver disease, two not). Measures of diagnostic accuracy were comparable for MELD, MELD-Na and the CreLiMAx risk score as to power in predicting short and medium-term mortality risk in the overall cohort: AUROCS for liver related risk of death were for MELD [6 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.80-0.98) p < 0.001; 12 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.81-0.96) p < 0.001]; MELD-Na [6 months 0.93 (95% CI 0.85-1.00) p < 0.001 and 12 months 0.89 (95% CI 0.80-0.98) p < 0.001]; CPS 6 months 0.91 (95% CI 0.85-0.97) p < 0.01 and 12 months 0.88 (95% CI 0.80-0.96) p < 0.001] and CreLiMAx score [6 months 0.80 (95% CI 0.67-0.96) p < 0.01 and 12 months 0.79 (95% CI 0.64-0.94) p = 0.001]. In a subgroup analysis of patients with Child-Pugh Class B cirrhosis, the CreLiMAx risk score remained the only parameter significantly differing in non-survivors and survivors. Furthermore, in these patients the proposed score had a good predictive performance. CONCLUSION: The CreLiMAx risk score appears to be a competitive and valid tool for estimating not only short- but also medium-term survival of patients with end-stage liver disease. Particularly in patients with Child-Pugh Class B cirrhosis the new score showed a good ability to identify patients not at risk of death.
Subject(s)
Liver Cirrhosis , Liver Transplantation , Humans , Liver Cirrhosis/complications , Liver Function Tests , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Severity of Illness IndexABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: MELD attempts to objectively predict the risk of mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis and is commonly used to prioritize organ allocation. Despite the usefulness of the MELD, updated metrics could further improve the accuracy of estimates of survival. AIMS: To assess and compare the prognostic ability of an enzymatic 13C-based liver function test (LiMAx) and distinct markers of liver function to predict 3-month mortality of patients with chronic liver failure. METHODS: We prospectively investigated liver function of 268 chronic liver failure patients without hepatocellular carcinoma. Primary study endpoint was liver-related death within 3 months of follow-up. Prognostic values were calculated using Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The Cox proportional hazard model indicated that LiMAx (p < 0.001) and serum creatinine values (p < 0.001) were the significant parameters independently associated with the risk of liver failure-related death. Logistic regression analysis revealed LiMAx and serum creatinine to be independent predictors of mortality. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for MELD (0.86 [0.80-0.92]) and for a combined score of LiMAx and serum creatinine (0.83 [0.76-0.90]) were comparable. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from serum creatinine levels, enzymatic liver function measured by LiMAx was found to be an independent predictor of short-term mortality risk in patients with liver cirrhosis. A risk score combining both determinants allows reliable prediction of short-term prognosis considering actual organ function. Trial Registration Number (German Clinical Trials Register) # DRKS00000614.
