Potential carbon mitigation and income in developing countries from changes in use and management of agricultural and forest lands.

The many opportunities for mitigating atmospheric carbon emissions in developing countries include reforesting degraded lands, implementing sustainable agricultural practices on existing lands and slowing tropical deforestation. This analysis shows that over the next 10 years, 48 major tropical and subtropical developing countries have the potential to reduce the atmospheric carbon burden by about 2.3 billion tonnes of carbon. Given a central price of $10 per tonne of carbon and a discount rate of 3%, this mitigation would generate a net present value of about $16.8 billion collectively for these countries. Achieving these potentials would require a significant global effort, covering more than 50 million hectares of land, to implement carbon-friendly practices in agriculture, forest and previously forested lands. These estimates of host-country income potentials do not consider that outside financial investment may or may not be available. Our calculations take no account of the additional benefits of carbon sequestration in forest soils undergoing reforestation, increased use of biomass and reduced use of fossil-fuel inputs and reduced agricultural emissions. In all events, realizing these incomes would necessitate substantially greater policy support and investment in sustainable land uses than is currently the case.

Understanding and managing leakage in forest-based greenhouse-gas-mitigation projects.

A major concern about land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the potential for leakage. Leakage refers to a net increase of greenhouse-gas emissions in an area outside the project resulting from the CDM activity. This paper provides an overview of leakage, its definitions and its causes. It describes ways that LULUCF projects may suffer from leakage and attempts to assess the magnitude of leakage risks for different LULUCF project types. It also summarizes some of the approaches, both in terms of policies and project development, to address LULUCF leakage.

The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases.

Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.